PREVIEW | ADAC Cyclassics Hamburg 2025 - Milan and Groves for a sprint? UAE to explode the race? Wout van Aert for a surprise?

On the 17th of August the World Tour calendar continues with another one-day race, this time in Germany. The Hamburg Cyclassics changes names often throughout the years but the course remains the same and it always provides for some exciting action between the sprinters and the classics specialists. We preview the race ahead.

The route is 207 kilometers long, with the first third almost completely flat through northern Germany. There isn’t too much to analyze, most riders will be looking to save their legs for the final third were the impact can be made on the race. The organizers did add an extra 30 kilometers and a few more ascents of the day's main climb however so this will be more difficult for the sprinters this time around.

The main feature of the race will be the Waseberg, the race’s iconic steep hilltop, on the banks of the Elbe river. It is 1 kilometer long at 7%, not the hardest of hilltops but the gradients do ramp up to 16% in it’s middle. It’s a short and explosive climb, with a downhill run-in to the base, there will be on each occasion a heavy fight for positioning and inevitable attacks.  

The climb summits with 120, 78, 67, 26 and 12 kilometers to go. But this isn't all an homogenous circuit, but instead a tricky set of loops designed around the city of Hamburg. The climb will be tackled back-to-back on two occasions but the attacks are certain to come only in the last set. The final two ascents will be separated by only 14 kilometers, allowing for tactics and aggressive racing to develop. After going through them however, it will be a flat run-in back to the center of Hamburg and into a potential sprint.

On this map is the final circuit the riders will race around the finish However, when preparing for the sprint they will only ride the final 1.9 kilometers marked on the graphic - hence skipping most of the technical sections. It won’t be a technical finale, however it is relatively narrow towards the end, positioning will be crucial and the gradients won’t have anything noteworthy.

Sunny day with a slight northern breeze, nothing that should impact the race in any meaningful way.

Sprint - The scenario that usually sees this race get decided. Could it happen again this year? It won't be easy, the route is definitely hard enough to create chaos and at least in UAE I see a team with many options to attack and make attacks stick. The sprinters will ultimately be divided by those who can climb well and those who will want a race as conservative as possible, and hope to survive. But the truth is at the end of the day, the race can only be so hard if any of them actually want to win it, and there will likely be alliances towards the end of the race because there are so so many quality riders capable of a strong result.

The two main favourites are in my opinion Jonathan Milan and Kaden Groves, two top sprinters and men that in their best form can climb quite well - Milan is very heavy, but at the same time the quality of his team and leadout compensate for this slightly. After his Tour win, Groves is Alpecin's sole and obvious leader and could win even from a small group. Men like Arnaud de Lie, Paul Magnier, Iván Cortina and a top form Wout van Aert could also be included in such scenarios, but they would also definitely be marked men in case they would get isolated out front and so it might not be the ideal scenario for them even if they have their best legs.

You have a few pure sprinters who will be on the opposite side of the spectrum such as Sam Bennett, Jordi Meeus, Phil Bauhaus, Fernando Gaviria, Alexander Kristoff, Elia Viviani, Juan Sebastián Molano, Milan Fretin, Arnaud Démare and Alberto Dainese who will be amongst those who will struggle the most.

And inbetween a combination of sprinters who can climb decently and classics specialists with a strong sprint (or perhaps even leadout men who have the freedom in case their sprinter gets dropped). Jasper Philipsen is an obvious name but he might still be lacking some form, he definitely did not show his best level at the Tour of Denmark. Danny van Poppel, Pascal Ackermann, Marijn van den Berg, Biniam Girmay, Max Walscheid, Mike Teunissen, Tobias Lund Andresen, Paul Penhöet and Bryan Coquard would fit in here. 

Attack - But a sprint is in no way assured. Just look at the incredibly strong UAE lineup with men like Alessandro Covi or Nils Politt who can even serve as domestiques. Jan Christen and Brandon McNulty come off a brilliant Tour de Pologne where they showed their top form and Isaac del Toro showed the very same at the Vuelta a Burgos. Add to the mix a wildcard in António Morgado and this lineup has so much firepower not only to attack but to sustain attacks most importantly and not let sprinters make a comeback. When it comes to attacks most teams will be eyeing them, but others will have similar plans.

Riders such as Axel Laurance is in my opinion very dangerous for this Sunday's race, they are very explosive for this type of climb, are smart riders and also pack a strong sprint. Bastien Tronchon, Marc Hirschi, Laurence Pithie and Matteo Trentin are a few riders who may be up there on the climbs and be part of a winning move in the right scenario; whilst other rouleurs such as former winner Marco Haller, Matej Mohoric, Fred Wright, Kasper Asgreen, Davide Ballerini and Jonas Abrahamsen may not favour the climbs but if they go up the road inbetween climbs or on the final kilometers they may be even harder to catch. 

*** Jonathan Milan, Paul Magnier, Kaden Groves
** Jan Christen, Arnaud de Lie, Jordi Meeus, Axel Laurance
* Danny van Poppel, Pascal Ackermann, Biniam Girmay, Tobias Lund Andresen, Wout van Aert, Bryan Coquard, Alberto Dainese, Jonas Abrahamsen, Davide Ballerini, Alberto Bettiol, Matteo Trentin, Isaac del Toro, Brandon McNulty, Jasper Philipsen

Pick: Jonathan Milan

How: Lots of great contenders and I think many teams will want to attack, but I believe Lidl-Trek and a whole host of sprinter allies will be able to somehow control the finale and in a bunch sprint the Italian will take the victory.