ANALYSIS | Paul Seixas’s five main rivals to win the 2026 Flèche Wallonne

The Ardennes Classics roll on this Wednesday, 22nd of April, with one of the season’s most compelling races: La Flèche Wallonne 2026. Its brutal Mur de Huy acts as judge, jury and executioner, making this World Tour classic utterly dramatic in its final metres. And this year all eyes are on the peloton’s breakout sensation: Paul Seixas. But who can challenge him?

French cycling is witnessing the rise of what looks like its next big star, and possibly a future Tour de France contender. What’s clear is he’s no longer just a prospect. The Decathlon CMA CGM rider is already winning and crushing rivals, as he showed at Itzulia with the overall victory plus three stages along the way.

Add to that another win at the Faun-Ardèche Classic and 2nd at Strade Bianche. Seixas is a top classics rider, and in his current form a leading favourite to win La Flèche Wallonne, where he will debut. But he cannot take anything for granted, as a deep field will look to exploit the absences of Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel to pounce.

Among the contenders are Seixas’s compatriots Kevin Vauquelin, Lenny Martínez, Romain Gregoire and Julian Alaphilippe. Beyond France, names such as Mattias Skjelmose, Christian Scaroni, Giulio Ciccone, Alex Aranburu, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Iván Romeo, Benoit Cosnefroy… But who are Seixas’s five main rivals at La Flèche Wallonne?

Despite crashing at the Amstel Gold Race, Kevin Vauquelin starts as Paul Seixas’s number-one adversary in the fight for La Flèche Wallonne 2026. Lest we forget, the INEOS Grenadiers rider finished 2nd in the last two editions (2024 behind Stephen Williams and 2025 behind Tadej Pogacar).

His form is excellent. Beyond the stumble in Amstel, Vauquelin is delivering a strong first season as an INEOS signing. He was 4th overall at Paris–Nice; finished inside the Top 5 overall at the Volta ao Algarve, and made the Itzulia final Top 10 with 2nd and 4th on two stages.

Next up among Seixas’s French rivals is Lenny Martínez. The young Bahrain Victorious rider keeps stepping towards stardom. His punch is excellent, ideal for a ramp like the Mur de Huy. And his 2026 results (he hasn’t finished outside any Top 5 yet) show he’s perfectly placed to tackle La Flèche Wallonne.

Third on the list is the ever-dangerous Ardennes rider Mattias Skjelmose. The Dane came within a whisker of victory at the Amstel Gold Race, where Remco Evenepoel beat him in a sprint to deny a defence of his 2025 title. He was also a major candidate at La Flèche last year, but a heavy crash ended his bid early.

In 2026 he again arrives with strong performances almost everywhere he’s raced. To 2nd at Amstel you can add 5th at the Faun-Ardèche Classic, 7th overall at the Volta a Catalunya, and 2nd on stage 2 at Itzulia. For Lidl–Trek he will be the clear reference point on a day ringed in red for the American squad.

La Flèche Wallonne 2026 could well be painted in the colours of the French flag. Because beyond the names above, Paul Seixas must watch another high-ceiling puncheur in Romain Gregoire. At 23, with 13 wins, the Groupama - FDJ United rider also arrives perfectly timed for the Mur de Huy.

The Frenchman comes off 4th at both Brabantse Pijl and the Amstel Gold Race, two events where his attacks helped ignite the race. Before that he was 4th at Strade Bianche, earlier still he won the Drôme Classic, and he opened his season with 5th overall at the Vuelta a Andalucía.

Many names could slot into fifth. Movistar Team may have a big shot with Cian Uijtdebroeks or Iván Romeo, but Christian Scaroni shapes as a steadier candidate.

The XDS Astana Team rider is one of the best puncheurs in the world. He has three wins this year already, at the Classica Camp de Morvedre, on the final stage of the Tour of Oman, and in the overall of that race. Whenever he lines up in a classic, he’s a protagonist. And the feeling is his 10 professional victories undersell him. The Italian has hit the woodwork many times.

Without doubt, Scaroni belongs alongside Vauquelin, Martínez, Skjelmose and Gregoire as Paul Seixas’ main rivals to win La Flèche Wallonne 2026. Of course, an outsider can always spring a surprise.