Paris-Roubaix 2026 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Tadej Pogacar or Mathieu van der Poel, who wins the Hell of the North?

The queen of all spring classics; the 'Hell of the North'... Paris-Roubaix is perhaps one of the most unique and recognizable races in the entire sport of cycling and for a good reason. In 2026, the last of the World Tour cobbled classics takes place on the 12th of April and will put the best classics riders head-to-head in northern France.

The race is one that has no match in terms of reputation and its first edition dates all the way back to the 19th century, with German Josef Fischer taking the first win back in 1986. Flandrien legends Roger de Vlaeminck and Tom Boonen hold the win record with four each; obtained in the 70's, and in the 2000/2010's respectively.

A race without a single climb, but one of the most difficult in the calendar due to its length, amount of cobbled sectors and the sheer roughness of those roads - many of which now protected due to the race's status. Marcel Kint, Rik van Steenbergen, Fausto Coppi, Rik van Looy, Eddy Merckx, Felice Gimondi, Roger de Vlaeminck, Francesco Moser, Bernard Hinault, Sean Kelly, Johan Museeuw... The 20th century has a gold mine of winners, in a race where often the best cyclist won - with the rider's specialty often not being a key factor.

A race where huge names are combined with shock winners. That spectrum can be well seen in the 2010's where Fabian Cancellara, Tom Boonen, Peter Sagan and Philippe Gilbert are headlining names; whilst the likes of Johan Vansummeren and Matthew Hayman have also delivered mouth-opening on very specific days that turned them into massive stars from out of nowhere. This is because the race is highly depended on strategy, luck, and often luck rewards the brave that attack from early on.

Sonny Colbrelli won the last rainy edition in 2021 whilst Dylan van Baarle kicked off a Dutch stint with his solo win back in 2022. Ever since, the last three editions have been won by the generational off-road specialist Mathieu van der Poel who is on the verge of reaching the race's record. In 2025 he won a dramatic battle with Tadej Pogacar who had then made his debut in the race.

One of the most difficult races in the calendar. Paris-Roubaix is an unique event, having a massive distance for the riders to go through in the north of France, including 29 different cobbled sectors which total to around 55 kilometers away from tarmac. It's a race for the classics specialists, the powerhouse riders and the endurance monsters, who can fly over famous sectors such as the Trouée d'Arenberg, Mons-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l'Arbre.

Like it’s been for several years, the route will go through a massive 259 kilometers, starting in Compiègne heading north, where the first cobbled sectors will be encountered with just under 100 kilometers of racing, which will make for around 2 hours of racing to settle and establish a breakaway. Also, as it’s been the case for some years, the breakaway should be highly contested, which can make for a furiously fast start. The teams controlling should keep a tight leash on who can go free from the pack or not. And most teams will try to have riders in front for strategical purposes later, specially with the weather conditions that will be taking place.

And this should be a sight most riders recognize very well. Some will be relieved pleased to go through it, some won’t be very happy with it. The Troisville sector, the first of 30 comes with a little over 95 kilometers of racing, it’s 2.2Km long, but the initial combination of sectors last year caused some damage in the peloton quite early on. This is the place where the true race starts, some may say.

Haveluy to Wallers (2500 meters, 102Km to go), this one will come right before the most iconic sector of the race. Everyone who loves cycling knows it, the Trouée d’Arenberg is “only” 2300 meters but is famed with one of the most traditional view in modern cycling. The full sector is in a straight line but is one that demands technical expertise and showcases perfectly the roughness of the cobbled sectors that make this race unique.

Line choice is crucial as the cobblestones in it are of an immense brutality. Adding the huge speed the riders will enter the sector it’ll make for maybe the most tense moment of the race, the lead-out to Arenberg sees truly remarkable fights, it starts slightly downhill and turns into slightly uphill, making for a really hard sector to make any acceleration, it’s a case of keeping the power up for the entire run. It ends with 93Km to go and the slight uphill ramp right after exiting it is also a common attack location.

At the end of all important cobbled sectors, teams will be ready with extra wheels to support their riders as fast as possible. Luck is a key factor in this race, and the main riders often test material months in advance to the race. A mistimed puncture or mechanical, which is very common, can change the outcome of the race in the blink of an eye, adding to its unpredictability.

Hornaing to Wandignies is 3700 meters long and is the next 4-star sector with 79Km to go, then there’s Tilloy to Sars-et-Rosières which is 2400 meters long and comes with 70Km to go. And with 52Km to go there’s the Auchy to Bersée sector and it’s 2700 meters in length, which set the riders up for the following sector. Obviously, the Mons-en-Pévèle sector, it’s 3Km long and finishes with 46Km to go, it will be the second 5-star sector of the race and comes in a crucial time where the decisive attacks are to come.

The final combination of sectors where it’s likely to see differences being made is the Camphin-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l’Abre. They are 4 and 5-star sectors respectively, feature 1800 and 2100 meters in distance and come with 18.5Km and 14Km to go.

They aren’t the final sectors, but with such a brutal race to that point and a very short distance to the finale, it’s the ideal place to make a move for everyone who has the legs, the Carrefour de l’Abre sector is one of great technical demand, and need of several accelerations, which is something not all riders will be capable of at that point of the race.

There’s still the Willems to Hem sector with 7Km to go, a 3-star sector that’s been recently introduced into the race, but it’s not usual to see gaps being made there, but who knows, with a group it can happen. The final kilometers will be well known, the entrance in Roubaix in flat roads, in case of a group coming into town it’s likely to see some attempts of surprising in it, which will lead to the old velodrome, the race’s symbol almost, where a deserving winner will emerge from a brutal race.

Tadej Pogacar - The World Champion is taking to the start as the main favourite. Not a 90/10 as in Flanders, but 60/40 against van der Poel. Yes this terrain does not favour him, but he has in Florian Vermeersch an incredibly strong teammate who is perfect for this race, who can be used to make the race constantly hard for the last 110 kilometers. This was the Flanders tactic and UAE have already figured out that Pogacar's key to winning Roubaix is in the endurance.

By that I mean to start the race as early as possible, to inflict as much overall fatigue in his rivals for hours. He doesn't have more raw watts, but at the end of Roubaix the riders will be nowhere near their best power numbers. The earlier things kick off the better chances he has of then dropping everyone closer to the finale. Besides he will want this anyway since smaller groups make for less dangerous racing, less fight for positioning and less unpredictability. UAE just have to play the same game and then hope for a different outcome than that of last year.

Mathieu van der Poel - If Pogacar is 60%, van der Poel is 40%. This isn't to underestimate the other favourites, but these are two riders who always seem to perform when they need to and always stay upright when they need to - or if they don't, they perform better than the rest anyway. Van der Poel has won three Roubaix editions in a row now, an unbelievable achievement for a race that is so chaotic in nature. That is because Alpecin have avoided crashes and mechanicals in an incredible manner above all, but also because he is one of the very best in positioning, endurance and consistently high watts for long attacks. Besides, he also packs a strong sprint, if necessary. Winning four in a row would have him make history, and it definitely is possible. He's got his best form and a much better support crew than in Flanders, with Jasper Philipsen and Tibor del Grosso also in peak form.

I will argue that although this race is a better fit than Flanders, he really has to be wary of working with Pogacar. In Flanders he gave away the race to his rival by not using any tactic and simply working with him when it was clear he would get dropped. That's now how you do a race of this level, specially when there is a literal record on the line.

Wout Van Aert - Visma are in a complicated position. Wout Van Aert is in peak form, but he is too strong to be let go by Pogacar and van der Poel; but not strong enough to drop them on paper. So like last year he is rather doomed to be in that "fourth place fight". Put simply he needs his very best day, all the luck he can get, and bad luck for his rivals. But out of the 'humans' he definitely looks to be the best here and in Flanders that was the case (if you exclude Remco Evenepoel who isn't here). Visma have a strong team yes, but I think they will not worry UAE and Alpecin who should just work together to deny all others of their benefits.

Mads Pedersen - Lidl-Trek have Mads Pedersen who was fifth in Flanders. Don't be mistaken he is in peak form or very close, his performance last Sunday was the best he could've realistically hoped for. Roubaix suits him better, and last year if it weren't for a mistimed mechanical I believe he could've been in the fight for the win. This time around he is sort of the same, and I would argue perhaps the favourite who is more likely to refue working with Pogacar if the opportunity comes.

But the team's power lays in its depth, and this CAN be a huge threat for any results. It's a team of (literal and figurative) heavyweights from top to bottom. Jonathan Milan and Max Walscheid are absolute watt monsters who can aid with both positioning and being in breakaways; Jakob Söderqvist was second at last year's under-23 Roubaix (the team didn't bring the winner Albert Philipsen); and Pedersen also has his key lieutenants Mathias Vacek and Soren Kragh Andersen. It is such an incredibly strong lineup and they are likely to try and place riders in the early breakaway because all of them can achieve a result and/or hang on late into the race.

Filippo Ganna - The INEOS rider was so incredibly powerful in Wevelgem and Dwars door Vlaanderen, and his choice to avoid Flanders was conscious and in my opinion the right one, there was simply no winning that race with Pogacar at the start. Roubaix on the other hand is a good fit for the Italian, who has very high watts and sustained power ability, a strong collective featuring Joshua Tarling and also other strong riders... Positioning and endurance aren't his specialties but they're not a weak point either, if he gets all the details right he can certainly fight for the win.

But the field is so so strong... There are so many big names above but the '3rd line' of favourites continues to be world-class and with many of them in top form. Take Jonas Abrahamsen who is perhaps a match to Filippo Ganna for flat road attacks; Bahrain who have the best Matej Mohoric back after Flanders but also the incredible GP de Denain winner Alec Segaert; Or Quick-Step that also have Jasper Stuyven at his best and former winner Dylan van Baarle at the start...

Decathlon can also be represented in the same line of contenders featuring Stefan Bissegger who had the ride of his life 12 months ago, but also Daan Hoole and Oliver Naesen both of which have shown tremendous legs over the past few weeks. And Red Bull of course, who have the youngster Tim van Dijke who may struggle with endurance but absolutely has the power. In fact him, Gianni Vermeersch, Laurence Pithie and Jordi Meeus initially sprinted to sixth-ninth at the 2024 edition of the race all for separate teams but are now racing together.

Many other riders would be worthy of being discussed but of course, in Roubaix surprises happen every year and dozens would have to make the list. In short there are a few that I believe are worth special attention: Soren Waerenskjold, Davide Ballerini, Marco Haller, Fred Wright, Michael Valgren and Ivan García Cortina; all riders who can end in the Top10 even without a race of luck.

*** Tadej Pogacar, Mathieu van der Poel

** Florian Vermeersch, Wout Van Aert, Mads Pedersen, Filippo Ganna

* Christophe Laporte, Jasper Philipsen, Jonas Abrahamsen, Matej Mohoric, Alec Segaert, Jasper Stuyven, Daan Hoole, Gianni Vermeersch, Tim van Dijke

Pick: Tadej Pogacar

How: Solo attack.