For Juan Larra, the big news of the stage was not only Isaac del Toro’s victory, but what it means for the fight for the yellow jersey. The CiclismoAlDia director believes the most worrying image for Team Visma | Lease a Bike was seeing Jonas Vingegaard concede ground without Tadej Pogacar even needing to attack. Isaac del Toro’s change of pace alone was enough for the Dane to be unable to respond.
Juan recalled that in the Tours of 2022 and 2023, the situation was exactly the opposite. Back then, it was Visma riders such as Wout van Aert or Primoz Roglic who managed to wear down Pogacar before Vingegaard’s decisive attack. Now, however, it is UAE who appear to have a domestique capable of making differences against the biggest favourites.
That said, he also wanted to bring some calm to the
analysis. In his
opinion, the climb to Montjuic suits the explosive characteristics of Pogacar and Del Toro far more than those of Vingegaard. That is why he believes the first major mountain stage, with the Tourmalet as the main feature, will be the real test to see whether that superiority remains when the high mountains arrive.
Evenepoel was the first rider behind the UAE duo in Barcelona.
Del Toro and Pogacar blew the Tour apart
What impressed me most about the stage was the feeling of total control transmitted by UAE. We are not talking about Isaac del Toro winning a stage from a breakaway or taking advantage of a race situation. We are talking about a rider who attacked from a group containing Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel, and who was able to leave behind precisely the two great rivals of his leader.
Obviously, it has to be put into context. This was not a high-mountain day with long, linked climbs, which is where Vingegaard usually makes differences. It was a stage much more similar to a classic, on terrain that suits Del Toro very well.
Even so, I honestly did not expect to see him win with that level of authority. And I think that image carries far more weight than the victory itself.
Pogacar and Del Toro cross the line side-by-side
Pogacar’s gift was a message
Many interpreted Pogacar’s gesture as simply gifting the stage to his teammate. I think there is a much more interesting reading. I have the feeling that this victory was also a way of rewarding the work Isaac del Toro will have to do during the rest of the Tour de France.
Already in the time trial, it caught my attention that the Mexican finished very close to Pogacar. That makes me think he did not reach the line completely at his limit, as other domestiques do when they work exclusively for their leader.
But I am convinced that will change when the big mountains arrive. I think Pogacar is saying to him, in a way: “Today, you win. From the Tourmalet onwards, I need you completely emptied working for me.”
The Tourmalet will mark the first major turning point
During the debate, Juan insisted that it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions about Jonas Vingegaard.
The Dane arrives with very different preparation to Pogacar and Del Toro. While the two UAE riders have recently raced at the Tour de Suisse and the Dauphine, Vingegaard has not raced since a Giro d’Italia affected by physical problems.
That is why he considers the Tourmalet to be a decisive stage. If Pogacar again shows clear superiority on a major ascent, the Dane’s options would start to become seriously complicated. But if he manages to respond in the high mountains, the Tour could still change a lot during the third week.
Can Isaac del Toro win this Tour?
The big question was inevitable. Can Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour de France? My answer remains no... at least while Tadej Pogacar continues in the race.
Not because I doubt his level. Quite the opposite. I think Del Toro has enough quality to fight for the yellow jersey one day. The problem is that he races on the same team as the best cyclist in the world.
I only see one scenario in which he could become the winner of this Tour: if Pogacar suffered a crash, illness or any other major setback that forced him to abandon or lose all his chances.
If that happened, I am convinced Isaac del Toro would have the level to assume UAE leadership and fight for overall victory. But while Pogacar remains the absolute leader, Del Toro will continue to play the role of luxury domestique. Isaac del Toro, star of world cycling.
The Mexican’s future depends on a major decision
Just a few days ago, I published a story on CiclismoAlDia about rumours raised by Italian journalist Beppe Conti, who claimed several French teams would be interested in signing Isaac del Toro.
The argument is obvious. While Pogacar continues to lead UAE Team Emirates – XRG, Del Toro’s opportunities to contest the Tour de France as team leader will be very limited. And that is a problem when we are talking about one of the biggest talents in world cycling.
Personally, I think Isaac del Toro has the qualities to win the Tour de France in the future. I even find it hard to identify many young riders with such a high ceiling. Alongside Paul Seixas, he strikes me as one of the names destined to define an era in the Grand Tours. The big unknown will be whether that moment arrives wearing the UAE jersey or leading another project.
Isaac del Toro’s victory on Montjuic leaves one very clear conclusion: the Mexican is no longer merely one of the great promises of world cycling. He is already one of the best riders on the planet.
The big difference is that, for now, he shares a team with Tadej Pogacar. And while the Slovenian remains the undisputed leader of UAE Team Emirates – XRG, everything suggests Del Toro will have to keep waiting for his chance to fight for the Tour de France.
What seems clear after this second stage is that, when that moment arrives, he will have more than enough arguments to fight for the yellow jersey.