OPINION: 2026 Tour de France — Jonas Vingegaard has no chance against Tadej Pogacar

With the Tour de France around the corner, the duel between Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar returns. And with it, the eternal debate: who will prevail after three weeks of racing? One arrives with more stage-race mileage, the other has focused on one-day classics without neglecting week-long stage races.

The question of whether the Dane from Team Visma | Lease a Bike can defeat the Slovenian from UAE Team Emirates XRG in the upcoming Grande Boucle remains open among fans and analysts. However, for Javier Rampe the scales tip clearly towards the Slovenian.

Speaking on the CiclismoAlDía podcast, Rampe laid out a series of arguments that, in his view, explain why Pogacar starts as the big favourite and why he sees it as very difficult for the Dane to dethrone him.

One of the points Rampe highlighted most was the mental factor. For the journalist, Pogacar dominates not only with his legs, but also through the psychological effect he exerts on his rivals and, especially, on Visma-Lease a Bike.

“I think Tadej Pogacar already beats Visma and Jonas Vingegaard like El Cid,” he said, referencing the Spanish medieval legend. For Rampe, the Dutch outfit still carries the impact of the Slovenian’s historic time trial win at La Planche des Belles Filles in 2020, when he snatched the Tour from Primoz Roglic on the penultimate stage.

Since then, he argues, fear of the Slovenian has taken root within Visma’s structure. “They’re terrified, petrified, by the figure of Tadej Pogacar,” he insisted, convinced the Slovenian has managed to exert a psychological influence that shapes his rivals’ tactical choices.

Rampe was equally emphatic when assessing the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider’s sporting level. In his view, when Pogacar reaches his peak, there is currently no rider who can match him in the Grand Tours.

“I also think Tadej Pogacar is the best Grand Tour rider in the international peloton right now, as long as he arrives in form,” he explained.

To support his case, he recalled that the Slovenian’s two Tour de France defeats to Vingegaard were shaped by exceptional circumstances. In 2023, a fractured wrist at Liège–Bastogne–Liège seriously hampered his build-up. A year later, an illness during the race dragged down his performance.

According to Rampe, those situations prevent a direct comparison with the Slovenian’s current level. “The years Tadej Pogacar didn’t arrive in form were when Jonas Vingegaard beat him,” he noted.

The journalist also believes the Dane’s victories were not solely down to individual superiority, but benefited from very favourable tactical circumstances for the Dutch team.

He specifically recalled Visma’s approach when they had Primoz Roglic and Vingegaard co-leading. “They played a two-on-one against Tadej Pogacar,” he said, evoking the alternating attacks that eventually wore down the Slovenian.

He also mentioned the famous “Sorry, I’m gone” line, uttered by Pogacar in the midst of a crisis during the 2023 Tour. For Rampe, that collapse was directly linked to illness rather than structural inferiority to Vingegaard.

Another of Rampe’s arguments for Pogacar’s superiority is the extraordinary form he has shown this season. The analyst underlined that the Slovenian hits the Tour with astonishing numbers: 13 wins — including overall classifications — in just 16 race days.

A tally that, he says, proves he is riding one of the best patches of his career. “I think the peak of form Tadej Pogacar has shown is off the charts,” he stated. He even suggested the UAE leader is already “at 90%” of his best, hinting there is still room to sharpen up before the Grande Boucle.

Rampe also believes the upcoming Tour route favours Pogacar more than Vingegaard. Iconic climbs such as Alpe d’Huez or Le Markstein fit perfectly with the world champion’s aggressive, explosive style.

He is also convinced the Slovenian will launch long-range offensives to punish his Danish rival. “I think Pogacar will hit Vingegaard from far out,” he said. The aim would be to exploit the Dane’s heavier race load this season and force him into repeated responses.

There lies one of the Tour’s keys: if Vingegaard cannot withstand those distant accelerations, his chances will be slim. While acknowledging the Tour de France always leaves room for surprises, Javier has no doubt about who should wear yellow in Paris. “I think a fully fit Pogacar is going to dominate the Tour de France,” he concluded.

The Slovenian has maintained an extraordinary level so far, with no clear ceiling yet, and barring physical setbacks, his superiority over Jonas Vingegaard is, as of today, simply too great.