"It has been Visma's collective strength that could beat Pogacar, but that's not the case now": Danish experts warn Jonas Vingegaard's supporting cast is no longer enough to topple the yellow jersey
CyclingWednesday, 15 July 2026 at 23:00
Tadej Pogacar took another major step toward a fifth Tour de France title with his dominant victory on stage 10, and Danish cycling experts now believe Jonas Vingegaard faces an increasingly difficult task to turn the race around.
UAE have overtaken Visma in the team battle
While they have not ruled out a comeback, former Tour stage winner Rolf Sorensen and analysts Emil Axelgaard and Christian Moberg agree that Visma-Lease a Bike no longer possess the collective strength that helped Vingegaard defeat Pogacar in previous editions of the Tour.
According to Sorensen, Vingegaard's only realistic chance now is to be stronger than Pogacar in the high mountains and hope the Slovenian experiences an off day.
"Vingegaard's team is also weakened. They can't quite live up to what they need, even though it wouldn't have made any difference on stage 10, where Sepp Kuss and Matteo Jorgenson were dropped on the Puy Mary climb," Sorensen said.
Sorensen pointed to the shift in power that has taken place since Pogacar reclaimed the yellow jersey in 2024. Whereas Visma previously relied on overwhelming team tactics to isolate the Slovenian, UAE Team Emirates now boast the stronger supporting cast.
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"It's a problem because it has been Visma's collective strength that could beat Pogacar, but that's not the case now. They don't take the initiative because UAE's domestiques are stronger than their own, so Jonas himself has to have the day of his life in the remaining stages."
"UAE are incredibly strong. Pogacar has such a powerful team that if they set a hard enough pace, it's difficult for anyone to even try to disrupt their plan."
Meanwhile, Axelgaard believes the changing financial landscape has played a major role in the current situation. "In 2022 Jumbo-Visma won stage after stage with Vingegaard, Van Aert and Laporte while also winning the Tour. They were equally strong in 2023, winning all three Grand Tours and sweeping the Vuelta podium."
"Since then, things have only gone in the wrong direction. It's obvious they've struggled financially because their wage budget can't be the same. Richard Plugge has openly said they're losing the financial arms race. At the same time, UAE have become even stronger."
The Tour is not over yet
Despite Pogacar's commanding position, the Danish experts stopped short of declaring the race over. "No, we can't do that. This is the Tour de France," Sorensen said.
"There are still three or four days at the end of the race where everything can be turned upside down. We can't rule anything out yet because there's still a long way to Paris. But of course, everything points toward another Tour victory for Pogacar."
Moberg agreed that Vingegaard's hopes now largely depend on Pogacar showing vulnerability at some point during the final mountain stages. "Pogacar is the best rider, but it only takes one bad day for everything to change. Visma and Jonas Vingegaard have to hope for that bad day and keep believing. There's still a long way to go."
The next major general classification showdown is expected on Saturday, stage 14, when the peloton heads to Le Markstein for another decisive day in the mountains.
Félix SernaCycling Journalist
Félix Serna is a writer at CyclingUpToDate and has been part of the team since 2025. He covers professional cycling across both the men’s and women’s calendars, with a focus on UCI rankings, race developments, and rider performance. His work includes interview-based reports, liveblogs, and tournament coverage designed to provide clear, accurate context throughout the season.
In his reporting, Félix regularly uses ProCyclingStats for results, statistics, and historical reference. He places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. He holds a bachelor’s degree in International Studies.
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