“If he waits for Mathieu or Tadej to make their move, it will be another year of just-missing-out” – Tom Dumoulin questions Wout van Aert’s reactive racing

The debate around Wout van Aert has followed him for years. Close, always close, but not quite on the top step in the races he wants most. With Opening Weekend signalling the start of another cobbled campaign, former Giro winner Tom Dumoulin believes the difference between another near-miss and Monument glory may lie in mindset rather than legs.

Speaking on the NOS cycling podcast, Dumoulin offered a blunt assessment of why Van Aert so often finds himself chasing rather than celebrating.

“If he waits for Mathieu or Tadej to make their move, it will be another year of just-missing-out.”

The comment lands at a pivotal moment. Van Aert returns to the road in 2026 after ankle surgery disrupted his winter, and he has made no secret that the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix remain central ambitions. Yet standing in his way once again are Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar, riders who have increasingly defined these races on their own terms.

Dumoulin’s analysis does not question Van Aert’s physical ability. On the contrary, he was clear that the Belgian remains among the very best. “Wout is still an exceptionally good rider. He’s very close to Van der Poel’s level, but he just comes up slightly short.”

For Dumoulin, the marginal difference lies in approach. “As an analyst, I see that Wout very often reacts in a race. He reacts to what’s happening. Van der Poel makes the race. He attacks, throws in a bomb 100 kilometres from the finish. That increasingly proves to be a success story. Just look at Pogacar.”

It is an argument that resonates with the recent pattern in the Classics. Van der Poel’s long-range aggression and Pogacar’s willingness to tear up traditional race scripts have repeatedly forced rivals into defensive roles. Van Aert, by contrast, has often been seen marking moves, covering accelerations and waiting for the decisive moment rather than creating it.

The irony is that when Van Aert has raced instinctively, the results have often followed. Dumoulin pointed to last year’s Tour de France finale as an example. “There, he showed courage. He went all-in. In Belgium, the pressure is always enormous. It seems that can be paralysing, and maybe that leads him to race in a more reactive way.”

That pressure is no small detail. Van Aert carries the weight of expectation every spring, particularly in Flanders and Roubaix. The narrative of “it must happen this year” has become almost annual.

Dumoulin suggested that the mental component may be just as important as tactical positioning. “They are riders who dare, who have courage, and who ultimately win those races. Maybe it’s time for Wout to do something like that.”

Specifically, he believes Paris-Roubaix may offer the clearest opportunity. “To try it in Roubaix, the race that suits him best… He is still very much a contender there.”

That view aligns with the broader assessment around Van Aert’s cobbled pedigree. His engine, time trial power and resilience over long distances remain among the peloton’s strongest assets. The question is whether he will choose to use them earlier and more decisively.

Visma’s Opening Weekend line-up has already confirmed that Van Aert will lead at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, marking his competitive return after months of rehabilitation. Physically, the groundwork appears laid.

Tactically and psychologically, however, Dumoulin’s warning adds a new layer to the narrative.

If Van Aert continues to wait for Van der Poel or Pogacar to ignite the race, history suggests he may again find himself just behind the decisive move. But if he is willing to risk everything, as he has shown he can, the balance of power in the Classics could yet shift.

For a rider of his calibre, Dumoulin insists, the margin is not about strength. It is about initiative.