“He has no other way to win this race” – Expert questions whether Tadej Pogacar can ever crack Paris-Roubaix

Paris-Roubaix 2026 once again lived up to its reputation as one of cycling’s most brutal and unpredictable races, but in the aftermath, the focus has shifted firmly onto what the result says about both Wout van Aert and Tadej Pogacar.

In his post-race podcast analysis, Eurosport commentator Javier Ares framed Van Aert’s victory as more than just another Monument win.

Instead, he positioned it as a long-awaited moment of redemption after years of near misses on cycling’s biggest stages.

“With the immense satisfaction of seeing Wout van Aert win… it was time for a great race, a formidable stage, to redeem him from so much frustration,” Ares explained, underlining the emotional weight behind the Belgian’s triumph.

A key part of Ares’ analysis centred on the unique demands of Paris-Roubaix itself. He stressed that the race stands apart from every other Classic, not just in difficulty, but in the way it combines chaos and endurance. “Paris-Roubaix is a race unlike any other,” he said, pointing to the constant tension between control and unpredictability.

That unpredictability, however, should not be confused with randomness. Ares was careful to highlight that while luck plays a role, it never fully determines the outcome. “It’s a bit cruel that luck plays such an important role in this race, but it’s not the only factor.”

With punctures and crashes affecting many of the leading contenders, his conclusion was clear: success in Roubaix is not about avoiding problems, but about responding to them better than anyone else.

When turning to Pogacar, Ares shifted towards a more structural reading of the Slovenian’s performance. The issue, he suggested, is not talent, but suitability. “Paris-Roubaix is even more difficult for Pogacar because there he has rivals who can ultimately beat him in a sprint in the velodrome.”

Rather than pointing to a single decisive moment, Ares framed this as an inherent disadvantage against specialists more naturally suited to the race’s demands.

He also noted how Pogacar’s aggressive racing style may have worked against him over the cobbles. “He managed to bridge across… putting strain on his team… in a race where he needs something more.”

In a race where positioning, support and energy conservation are critical, that constant pressure can come at a cost.

In contrast, Van Aert’s ride was presented as a masterclass in control and awareness. Beyond the physical effort, Ares highlighted the psychological battle that unfolded in the finale. “He was forcing Pogacar, psychologically, to make that little bit more effort.”

That subtle edge, combined with tactical clarity, proved decisive in a race where margins are often defined by small moments rather than outright dominance.

Ultimately, Ares framed the duel as a clash of styles, each rider bound by their own strengths and limitations. “Pogacar had no other option… driven by his courage, his energy, his bravery… he has no other way to win this race.”

It is a conclusion that cuts to the heart of Roubaix itself: while Van Aert adapted perfectly to its demands, Pogacar was left forcing a race that was never fully designed for him.