“For Tadej Pogacar, this is the worst possible scenario" - Tyler Hamilton claims 'balance has shifted' in Jonas Vingegaard's favour at 2025 Tour de France

Tadej Pogacar has looked his typically supreme self so far at the 2025 Tour de France, expertly handling anything and everything thrown at him by Team Visma | Lease a Bike and Jonas Vingegaard. In the opinion of American ex-pro Tyler Hamilton however, that balance might now have shifted.

The reason? The abandonment of João Almeida through injury on stage 9. “It’s undoubtedly shifted the balance of power. Losing Almeida is a huge, huge blow for UAE," analyses the now 54-year-old former Tour de France stage winner in his coverage of the 2025 edition for Danish media TV2. “With Almeida, I’d say the teams were fairly evenly matched. But now Visma have the advantage. It’s up to them to decide how to make use of that upper hand."

On stage 10 this Monday afternoon, the Tour de France heads into the high mountains for the first time. Hamilton believes Almeida will very quickly prove a big miss for the Maillot Jaune. "For Pogacar, this is the worst possible scenario — aside from crashing himself," he says. "He’s lost his right-hand man, and now there’ll be enormous pressure on Adam Yates. It’s a real shame for them, but that’s part of cycling. The balance has shifted.”

Hamilton also notes how Pogacar seemed a little down when discussion Almeida's exit to the media after stage 9. "I listened to Pogacar’s interview after the stage, and of course, he was very upset. Naturally, it’s a huge blow to lose Almeida," says Hamilton. "I could hear in his voice that he was really affected — it’s a serious setback for his team."

And as for stage 10, Hamilton predicts UAE Team Emirates - XRG will not look to control things as they maybe would have otherwise. “They might let a breakaway go and hand the jersey to someone they know they can reel back in during the high mountains. I could definitely see that happening,” the expert concludes.