"Can he achieve even more than that?" - Remco Evenepoel's Tour de France chances assessed by Belgian compatriot

Remco Evenepoel's debut Tour de France for Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe comes with high expectations. The Olympic Champion has already finished on the podium alongside Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard, but faces the pressure to improve on that despite a rocky approach to the race.

In a column for Cyclingnews, former Belgian pro Thomas de Gendt pointed out the Belgian's strong classics campaign with a win at Amstel Gold Race and podiums at the Tour of Flanders and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, and how that removes some of the pressure ahead of the Tour.

"It's not like his year will be a bad one if, say, he now only wins one stage in the Tour. I think with Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard there, if Remco can get third and wins the time trial that'd be a good race for him, whilst for it to be a great Tour, he'd have to get a mountain stage win against Pogacar or wear the yellow jersey".

Essentially, what he achieved back in 2024, where Evenepoel - at the time with Soudal - Quick-Step put in a tremendous performance over the three weeks, with his best climbing level ever, a stage win, a place on the final podium and an extremely consistent race. Is it possible, in the current peloton, for him to improve on that under regular circumstances?

"But can he achieve even more than that? In many ways, that's Remco's problem right now in Belgium. Because even if he did get third, then a lot of people will say he didn't perform well [...] In Remco's case, even being on the podium of a Grand Tour – which for me is as good as it can get right now, barring major surprises – that just wouldn't be good enough," he argues.

The pressure from Belgium, as well as the criticism, has been very high over the years for riders such as him and Wout Van Aert. In the stage-races, the Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe rider has also not proven himself this year, casting a shadow of doubt over his chances at the Grand Boucle.

But at his best level, such as last fall where the was the only rider giving Tadej Pogacar some kind of contention in all of the main one-day races, he is not far.

"He's far from being alone in having this problem when Pogacar attacks and unfortunately Remco's upper limit isn't quite good enough to follow Pogacar. But maybe now with the new training approach Remco has, it could be he's been training like a maniac to get his VO2 Max up and he'll get that extra percentage point – and it really is just 1% difference," de Gendt argues.

"Talking of numbers, I've seen all this stuff about his FTP value of 425 (shared in Evenepoel's Youtube channel, ed.) and actually I think it's a number that's lower than what he is actually pushing – it's just a training number. For example, my own FTP on paper was always 430 or 435 with a weight of 69kg. But in the races, it could actually rise to something like 460 for 20 minutes. So what your FTP is in the race and on paper are two very different things".

It is an important race and one where the Olympic champion faces internal pressure as well, as he shares the lead with Florian Lipowitz who succeeded him as the figure on the podium with the 'big two' last year.

"So that's Remco's story: he's in a position where even if he does win, he's still doing something wrong in the eyes of a lot of people – and a lot of journalists as well. And unfortunately it seems like nothing can change that, not even (maybe) finishing third in the Tour de France this July".

De Gendt also shared his thoughts on Paul Seixas, the 19-year old sensation who has been taking the spotlight this year with his incredible performances and also with the wildcard aspect that he brings to the table into the Tour.

Whilst the quality is undeniable, a Grand Tour is a race that often relies on experience and consistency above the riders' own abilities, still to this day despite the advances in training, nutrition and technology.

"I'm not expecting as much from Paul Seixas as some people are this July. He can always surprise me, and his numbers for a 19-year-old are incredible, and he will for sure be a Tour de France winner one day. But this is his first Grand Tour," he points out.

"And while I think he'll be there in the mix at the top level for the first two weeks, the third week is always something of a question mark for a lot of riders, and that includes Seixas".