ANALYSIS - 5 under the radar riders who can surprise at the 2026 Tour de France's battle for the overall classification

The Tour de France starts within nine days and at this point in time, there is very little that the riders can do to improve their form ahead of the Grand Depart in Barcelona. We know about all the big names that will aim for the yellow jersey or a coveted place on the final podium. But who can surprise to be in the Top10, Top5 or perhaps even better?

The Tour de France is the sport's epicenter and in 2026 there is not a single doubt that it is the three-week race that attracts the biggest amount of GC specialists. On a yearly basis that is already the case, but the Giro d'Italia had a field that didn't provide Jonas Vingegaard with too much discomfort; whilst for the Vuelta a España João Almeida is currently the biggest name that is virtually confirmed to be at the start.

At the Tour no. Tadej Pogacar is present to try and win a record-matching fifth title; Jonas Vingegaard is aiming to dethrone Pogacar for a third year in a row; Paul Seixas is making his Grand Tour debut and carries the home crowd's almost insurmountable expectations; Remco Evenepoel is showing up with a new team and completely different preparation to reignite his yellow jersey dreams...

With the exception of Almeida himself and Oscar Onley whose absence was confirmed this morning by Netcompany INEOS, almost all of the world's best in the mountains will be present and fighting for the top spots. Hence, just making it to the Top10 will be an incredibly difficult mission, and one which will require great climbing legs and consistency.

It can be argued that the 2025 edition had some surprises, or in fact an almost fully surprising Top10. Florian Lipowitz and Oscar Onley made their name as specialists and battled for the final spot on the podium; Tobias Johannessen confirmed his years-long potential despite collapsing at the summit of Mont Ventoux; Kévin Vauquelin led the French mission to finish seventh; whilst Ben Healy and Jordan Jegat raced smartly with the race's breakaways to make waves into a Top10 that almost no-one could've possibly foreseen.

So who are the least considered names that actually stand good chances of finishing amongst the best?

The Frenchman is the biggest name on the list, perhaps. But he fits in. Martínez at the end of the day is just 22 years old and in his three Grand Tour participations, his best result was a 24th place at the 2023 Vuelta a España. Bahrain - Victorious will be at the Tour de France with Antonio Tiberi as a solid GC contender, but the Italian has not been having an easy season and did not have good form at the recent Tour de Suisse.

Martínez hence has never, and still isn't termed a sole leader for the Tour, and if Santiago Buitrago is also in the lineup then it would overshadow him even further. But on paper, he has the best cards. He is yet to prove himself in a three-week race, like his compatriot Paul Seixas, which drives forward the point that he is an unknown, and if he can even handle the consistency factor is not something anyone can give as a certain in the first place.

In 2024, he was inserted into the Tour's lineup after Marc Madiot had learnt he was about to leave the team. He rode his debut Tour completely out of form and was completely absent from the action. 12 months ago, he rode it in search of stage wins and the KOM jersey. If you count out Pogacar and Vingegaard, he was the best in the polka dots classification, but the points system did not favour him.

His consistency over the past year and a half with Bahrain has increased substantially, and that is the main argument behind his likely evolution. If you look at his 2026 season tally in week-long races he has in fact done better than almost anyone in the peloton. He was fifth at Paris-Nice and beat Jonas Vingegaard in the final stage; was second behind the Dane at the Volta a Catalunya; was third at the Tour de Romandie behind Pogacar and Florian Lipowitz...

At the Tour de Suisse his opening stage was modest, and he fell out of GC. But in the mountains, where he is expected to perform, he almost held off Pogacar to win the queen stage. Martínez' time trialing abilities are quite good for a rider of his weight and his climbing abilities are undeniable. With the Frenchmen eyeing Paul Seixas as well, he could also fly under every radar into a solid result.

The Spaniard was fifth at the 2023 Tour and around the early 2020's he was one of the peloton's brightest talents. Currently, at age 25, he isn't given the title of 'young promise' anymore, but is instead a fully solidified and experienced Grand Tour rider. But his results over the years have not improved, and 2025 was riddled with crashes and a season-ending fall at the Tour de France.

2026 has seen some of the same luck, but Rodríguez could end up being a viable option for Netcompany INEOS. This is not ultimately great news for the team, who are having to travel to Barcelona without Oscar Onley who was their main hope. And at the recent Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Kévin Vauquelin also lacked the climbing ability that he had previously shown. The British team, who was initially putting full focus on the GC fight with multiple leaders, is left wondering if that is even a viable goal.

But a Top10 is, without a doubt, as Rodríguez has had a good run-up to the Tour and in Auvergne, he looked to be the team's best. He started the race as third option and so he lost time in the team time trial. Then, after an unsuccessful breakaway, he dropped out of GC contention on the summit finish to Grand Colombier. But in the final stage, he showed his best level in quite a long time.

Where it mattered, a solid display by INEOS on that day saw Rodríguez put work in the breakaway and then ride to sixth at the end of the stage. He is an experienced figure and a Grand Tour specialist when the math is made, unlike any other rider at INEOS entering the Tour. The team may prioritize stage wins but the overall classification could see the Spaniard in the mix.

Lidl-Trek has been a team whose ambitions have been discussed widely this year. At their December training camp, CyclingUpToDate learned about the news that Juan Ayuso and Mattias Skjelmose would both be at the Tour de France before Skjelmose himself knew of the news. And that did come as a surprise, because we can confirm that he had been previously promised a leadership role at the Giro this year.

Plans change, and at Lidl-Trek, there is a strong collective environment. Jonathan Milan and Mads Pedersen share common goals year-long; whilst in the GC field there is Juan Ayuso, Mattias Skjelmose, Derek Gee and other big figures who all want to chase individual results and have the arguments to lead. But the picture that has been often painted, that Ayuso would be an absolute leader at the Tour and that Skjelmose will be a domestique, is not accurate.

Ayuso has finished second in Auvergne and displayed tremendous form before his spring-ending crash at Paris-Nice earlier in the year. Motivated, in a leading position, and maybe better than ever, the Spaniard may actually fight for the podium at the Tour. But only if he is really in a very strong position will the team ask Skjelmose to work for him, or sacrifice himself for his teammate. Ordinarily, a top form Ayuso should be around the Top5, and Skjelmose not far behind. With UAE, Visma and Red Bull all having incredibly strong teams, none of the responsibility lies on Lidl-Trek to do any work.

Hence it is fully viable that, like in Auvergne, Ayuso and Skjelmose can race together and help each other, instead of sacrificing each other. And the Dane 'has the cards', as one infamous president would say. Whilst some of his most impressive results have often come in the hilly races, it can't be forgotten that he is also a rider who has proved himself over three weeks. In 2024 he was fifth at the Vuelta a España, he was won the Tour de Suisse in the past and this year he was seventh in Catalunya and sixth in Auvergne.

I would say that not only possible, it is even likely that Skjelmose finishes in the Top10 in regular conditions and *if* he does not have a terrible day during the Tour. Lidl-Trek will have an incredibly strong team and the stage hunters can certainly succeed whilst easing the pressure on the climbers. With Ayuso and Skjelmose both in the picture, I am sure that the team will also be bolder in making their way into breakaways to aid their GC chances.

A rider that for 12 months has been in the picture to try and do it. The ultimate outsider it can be argued. Paret-Peintre signed with Soudal - Quick-Step in 2025 and with the departure of Remco Evenepoel, his role has become more prominent. The team will have Mikel Landa - one who can't beat what he's done in the past and has not had an ideal preparation; and an Ilan van Wilder who may also surprise, but more logically would pursue stage wins.

Then we have Paret-Peintre, 1.78 meters in height and 52Kg in weight - according to ProCyclingStats. In 2025, he won atop Mont Ventoux, it cannot get any bigger than that. The only way the Frenchman could improve on last year's performance as a stage hunter would be to win on Alpe d'Huez, but as it only comes in the final days of the race, even if he was a GC outsider he would likely have freedom due to the massive gaps.

Paret-Peintre has every reason to aim for GC, because the KOM jersey is also an unlikely goal with the Tour's current points system and dominanting figures; whilst as argued, he has acomplished a lot as a stage hunter. He has every right to ask the team to aim for GC at the Tour, because the rest of the team should already focus on stage wins, and he has the results to back it up.

Whilst he only finished 20th on GC, he finished fourth and fifth on back to back days at the two queen stages of the Volta a Catalunya - massive results. He was also second at the stage where Jonas Vingegaard cemented his Paris-Nice win. A pure climber, and one who loves the longer climbs, the harder the race is the better for him - whilst his weakness lies on the flat and windy terrain, of which there won't be much; and the flat time trials, something the race fully ignored this year. A Top10 result would be quite meaningful for him, and he tends to also perform better towards the end of the three-week races as we've been seeing since his breakthrough in 2024.

The Colombian is another rider that, under the radar, has been performing extremely well. Astana have, since last year, been on a streak of stage-hunting exhibitions that propelled them close to the top of the charts. Hence, inbetween the many winners, it wouldn't be hard to not spot Tejada, who has seized this time to solidify himself as a GC name.

12th at last year's Vuelta was his best three-week result, but he can improve on this, also because that result came off the back of an entire Tour de France. In 2025 he was Top10 at the UAE Tour and Paris-Nice; and this year he did it again - only he was fourth at UAE and even won a stage in France; whilst finishing third in both of the race's hardest stages.

But his form leading up to the Tour has been quite modest. Whilst this can be interpreted as a problem, he needs his best form, it also puts him in a place where - like Afonso Eulálio at the Giro - no-one is likely to chase him if he finds himself in a good breakaway winning time on the GC men. And Astana will do this with their men, something he may also take part in.

But Tejada does not have that pressure. Stage wins will be the team's priority, the Colombian can ultimately sneak into this GC battle seamlessly and in the mountains he has the legs to hold his own, without a doubt.