"Between Seixas, Lipowitz, and Del Toro": Rolf Aldag expects a fierce battle for Tour de France podium

Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe definitely aspire to take up a key role at the 2026 Tour de France, but what can they aim for? Realistically, a repeated podium finish for Florian Lipowitz is the expected maximum of what is possible for the German formation, even though the team has many interesting cards to play.

Lipowitz will share leadership with Remco Evenepoel, who hopes to reminisce his 2024 podium, but it is quite likely that he'll end up in a supporting role when high mountains come, alongside former Giro d'Italia winner Jai Hindley, who will ride his second Grand Tour of this season after yet another podium finish at the 2026 Corsa Rosa.

The main favourites for this Tour have not clashed swords at any venue as Tadej Pogacar rode Tour de Suisse, Jonas Vingegaard skipped all action after a victorious Giro and Paul Seixas rode Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes. Meanwhile, Lipowitz (as expected) dominated the Tour of Slovenia in a mediocre competition. Did we learn anything from that?

"It was important to gain confidence," former sports director Rolf Aldag explains the importance of Lipowitz's victory in Slovenia in an intreview for Eurosport.

In fact, he was quite pleased with the German's approach to racing so far in 2026, even when faced against Pogacar two months ago during Tour de Romandie. "We've seen him very active this year; he even attacked Pogacar at the Tour de Romandie. So I wouldn't say that he fundamentally lacks confidence."

Aldag further maps out the rider profile of Lipowitz and in particular how he perceives his strengths and weaknesses.

"He has certain limitations when it comes to explosiveness – the ability to decide a race with a surprise attack. That's not so easy for him. But when it gets really, really tough, like in the third week of the Tour de France, then that explosiveness isn't so crucial anymore. Then he simply has to make it through unscathed – and then he'll be right up there at the front."

Less than one week prior to Grand Départ, the cards seem to have been dealt already among GC contenders. Pogacar is the man to beat after a dominant Tour de Suisse victory. His main challenger is Vingegaard, seconded by Paul Seixas whose current form is a bit of question mark following Auvergne crash.

And then there is Lipowitz - unlikely to beat either Vingegaard or Pogacar under normal circumstances, but strong and consistent enough to be there for the final podium spot battle.

"Purely in terms of performance, Pogacar is the clear favorite. Of course, anything unexpected can happen, but currently he's the undisputed number one. He even won a time trial at the Tour de Suisse on a course that doesn't really suit him," Aldag highlights, before pointing out to the fact UAE had three other men in the final top-10, showcasing immense team strength.

"Meanwhile, Vingegaard was only 13th in the Giro time trial. Pogacar will also gain time on Vingegaard at the Tour. And where is Vingegaard supposed to make up that time? He'd have to drop him on a climb," the former professional sees no way to the top for the Danish two-time winner.

"Right now, Pogacar is at the top of the rankings. Five percent below him is Vingegaard, and another five percent behind that is the group around Seixas and Lipowitz."

Finally, UAE have not just one rider who can compete for Tour podium. Of course, there is third man from 2023 Adam Yates, but more interestingly Isaac del Toro, the winner of Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes, who had no troubles in absence of Seixas.

"With Del Toro, we don't quite know yet what he's capable of, even though he has enormous talent. But I wouldn't be surprised if UAE is aiming for first and second place, or first and third. What we can really look forward to is the battle for third place. In my opinion, the decision will be between Seixas, Lipowitz, and Del Toro. I'm hoping for a positive outcome for Lipowitz."