"ASO are leaning more towards Seixas and Evenepoel as a Pogacar rival rather than Vingegaard" - Are Visma's days as a Tour de France threat over?
Cycling
Jonas Vingegaard won the 2026 Giro d'Italia but did not manage to finish the Tour de France after a crash. On the CyclingUpToDate Podcast, Rúben Silva and Gavin Quinn have discussed the Dane's chances at contesting the 2027 Tour, as well as the choices that Team Visma | Lease a Bike should make when it comes to their lineup.
The route will, unlike recent years, feature a lot of focus on its time trials - 71 kilometers in total - and only a few summit finishes. "I believe that this route is a little rough on him, because over the past few years we've seen a Vingegaard that hasn't performed in the time trials as well as he has in the past," Silva said on this week's episode.
"I think that Vingegaard risks losing one or two minutes perhaps, let's say even in this time trial that we're looking at, which is stage seven, which of course it comes before the mountain stages". Team Visma | Lease a Bike are looking at a route where they are not favoured over time trial specialists like Remco Evenepoel and Paul Seixas; and Tadej Pogacar - who has comfortably conquered the Grand Boucle three years ina row now.
Silva points out several aspects in which the route does not favour the Dane's specialties. "There just aren't a lot of summit finishes [...] There's not a whole lot of fatigue involved, and I feel like a race that is on from day one suits Vingegaard. He's very good at recovering, he's very good at the whole concept of a grand tour, but this Tour has less days that are decisive, and those days will [as a consequence] be more decisive".
Jonas Vingegaard not seen as Tadej Pogacar's main rival anymore?
Both have agreed that the route seemed to be inclined towards the abilities of Evenepoel and Seixas, whilst the Tour organizers appeared to design a route that is meant to keep the GC battle tight for as long as possible.
"It seemingly looks like the organizers ASO are leaning more towards SeIxas and Evenepoel as a Pogacar rival rather than Vingegaard, and I think it's the first time we've seen it in the stage design," Quinn added. The organizers' intent on keeping the GC race tight has led to common belief that the route is not designed alongside Tadej Pogacar's specialties - and as a consequence, against Vingegaard's.
"I think Visma and Vingegaard will have to think kind of long and hard what they want to get out of this Tour. They've done the Giro d'Italia-Tour de France double (back in 2023, ed.). The likelihood is that won't happen again".
Whereas before Vingegaard aimed for victory at the Tour, Quinn now believes that it is more likely the Dane will fight to finish on the podium."Vingegaard has a serious podium battle on my hands rather than a yellow jersey, in my opinion. I see him having a lot of pressure from Evenepoel and Seixas, that a podium place is more actually a contention rather than the yellow jersey".
Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar at he 2026 Tour de France
Will Visma select Matthew Brennan for 2027 Tour de France?
The race begins with two stages for the sprinters, which will see the fast men fight for the first yellow jersey. Silva has argued that, due to Matthew Brennan's evolution and also his success at the recent Vuelta a España, that the Dutch team should go for a multi-leader approach for the upcoming Tour.
"They are steering away a little bit from this 'we must win the Tour de France mentality'. We've seen that with Vingegaard going for the Giro. I think that in this Tour, there's a likelihood that they're going to go with Matthew Brennan in the lineup, that they're going to try to potentially take the first yellow jersey and make that a big goal".
Silva believes the team's bigger focus on monuments and Giro d'Italia goals in 2026 is a telling sign that placing the Tour de France as an absolute priority was not the line of thought to follow. Instead, the team should look to remove pressure from its climber by seeking success in the sprints.
"Wout van Aert as a lead-out for Brennan, support for Vingegaard, free roll whenever he may get it... And the team is going to not have as much focus in winning the GC."
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Quinn believes that Matthew Brennan's selection is rather inevitable: "It's undeniable with a UK Grand Depart and Matthew Brennan's rise, his Vuelta performances, he has to go to the Tour, right?"
"There's so many stages that he can potentially win, even some of these hilly breakaway stages... The combination of him and Wout Van Aert means that they have two potential cards to play and two shots, essentially, at a stage win".
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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- @Guavaking, what are you talking about? Since 2024 no one alive climbs like Pogi and everyone knows it. Capish?PogiSloFans29-10-2026
- I reckon it would be neat if Jonas skipped the Tour, and went for getting the Giro and Vuelta again. Having every GT twice would be a flex. That's a shorter list, within a short one already. He doesn't "need" to win the Tour again. And why waste time going for second or worse as a former winner when you could lock in a really solid showing across all three? Plus Visma can go for the Green Jersey with Brennan and Wout, stages etc.wrsty29-10-2026
- That is exactly my opinion. I would rather see him winning Itzulia Basque country than risking it all at Paris-Roubaix. Than he will have all 7 major one week stage races in his pocket and since 2028 season he can try to win PR every single year. I also had a fractured vertebra, a broken collarbone and a dislocated shoulder and it took me more than a year before I could ride my bike without feeling any pain. Pog has access to incomparably medical care, but some things just can´t be rushed. And the Paris-Roubaix cobbles are absolute hell...Lukicinho29-10-2026
- smart move and good for cross!Ketterechts29-10-2026
- what is difficult to understand in ‚largely agree‘? the rest referred to his arrogance.Ketterechts29-10-2026
- I know. the tragedy of getting paid money to ride a bike. I could only dream of it.mij29-10-2026
- USA has the U23 and elite men’s world champion - very impressive.mij29-10-2026
- it is his name, his image, his likeness. he deserves every penny regardless of how much it is. I hope he enjoys a Michelin star restaurant every meal. no one should profit off his NIL other than him his argument isn’t destroyed at all. the people using him illegally is stealing from him.mij29-10-2026
- Wins from 20 different riders for 3 seasons running!Lozza28-10-2026
- “No one alive climbs like Jonas and Pog knows it“ ????? BSLozza28-10-2026
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