ANALYSIS | Tadej Pogacar's 5 biggest rivals at GP de Montréal 2025

This Sunday, 14th September, the second of Canada's World Tour classics takes place: the 2025 GP de Montréal. Tadej Pogacar will be aiming to defend the title he claimed last year. As he also prepares to defend his World Championship crown in Kigali, this prestigious one-day race will be a crucial test for the reigning rainbow jersey. However, he’ll face stiff competition from a number of big-name rivals determined to stop him.

As mentioned, Pogacar triumphed in Montréal last year with a stunning long-range solo attack. The 2025 edition features a similarly favourable course for the UAE Team Emirates - XRG rider, who relishes hilly classics with relentless short climbs where he can make the race hard and launch attacks.

But that same terrain also suits other contenders, including Wout van Aert and Arnaud De Lie. The two Belgians are among the five main threats to Pogacar's bid to repeat his victory in Montréal. Add to that the presence of riders such as Florian Lipowitz, Biniam Girmay, Michael Matthews, Pello Bilbao, Alex Aranburu, and Corbin Strong...

This is the group most likely to cause problems for the UAE Team Emirates XRG leader in one of the most exciting World Tour classics on the calendar.

Pogacar’s biggest threat is someone who’s already beaten him this season. Wout van Aert will be looking to repeat what he did during this year’s Tour de France. On the Montmartre stage, the Visma rider managed to drop the Slovenian and take the win on Stage 21. It was a spectacular showdown between two of the sport’s best. If Van Aert is in similar form, Pogacar will need to keep a close eye on him at all times.

A powerhouse in the classics, De Lie boasts a fearsome sprint. If he can withstand Pogacar’s repeated attacks, there may be little the Slovenian can do against the Belgian in a fast finish. De Lie arrives in top form, having claimed back-to-back victories at the Renewi Tour (beating Mathieu van der Poel) and the Bretagne Classic.

Much like De Lie, Biniam Girmay could seriously challenge Pogacar if he’s still in contention at the finish. The Eritrean is well-suited to hilly classics and poses a real threat in a reduced bunch sprint. That’s why Pogacar will likely try to shed riders like Girmay and De Lie early on. Girmay is yet to win in 2025, and a statement performance in Montréal could be the perfect way to bounce back.

Arguably the second-best climber in the race, Lipowitz is quickly establishing himself as one of the premier GC riders in the world. His third-place finish at the 2025 Tour de France speaks volumes. However, he’s yet to shine in a one-day World Tour classic. If he can hang on during the repeated ascents of Côte Camillien-Houde (1.8 km at 7.3%), the German could spring a surprise.

Last but not least, Pello Bilbao deserves his place on this list. In 2024, he came closest to challenging Pogacar, finishing second just 24 seconds behind the solo-winning Slovenian. Bilbao managed to limit the damage better than anyone. Keep an eye on him — he’s been regaining form since the Tour of Britain and could pose a serious threat.

All that said, the reality is that only Wout van Aert is expected to truly push Pogacar to the limit. And even that might be optimistic. If the Slovenian delivers his usual level of performance, victory in Montréal is very much on the cards. With the Kigali World Championships fast approaching, Pogacar will be determined not to leave anything to chance.