ANALYSIS | Civil War or Masterclass? What UAE must learn from Sky and Visma to avoid an Ayuso–Del Toro disaster

As the final week of the 2025 Giro d’Italia begins, UAE Team Emirates find themselves in the strongest position of any team in the race, and yet arguably the most precarious. After 15 stages, they hold the maglia rosa with Isaac Del Toro, while also sitting in third place with their designated leader Juan Ayuso. Their combined strength has overwhelmed the peloton at times, yet their indecision threatens to undo everything.

On paper, this should be a dream scenario. Del Toro, just 21 years old and riding his second Grand Tour, has emerged as the breakout star of the race, leading by 1:20 over Simon Yates. Ayuso, meanwhile, is 1:26 back in third, still within touching distance of the pink jersey. Primoz Roglic, once seen as the main threat, has imploded and sits nearly four minutes down. UAE Team Emirates - XRG have all the cards. But they’re struggling to play them.

That was no more apparent than on Sunday’s Stage 15, a mountainous showdown on Monte Grappa that should have sealed UAE’s dominance. As Egan Bernal launched a blistering attack, Del Toro followed with Richard Carapaz, Derek Gee, and Thymen Arensman. Ayuso, meanwhile, was distanced and in trouble, yet the UAE team made the extraordinary decision to stop riding up front and instead dragged Ayuso’s group back to Del Toro’s. In trying to serve two leaders, they risked serving neither.

It’s the classic Grand Tour dilemma: when a team has more than one potential winner, who do they back? In cycling history, this dilemma has played out in both glorious and disastrous fashion. UAE would do well to study two modern precedents, the internal drama at Jumbo-Visma during the 2023 Vuelta a España, and Team Sky’s handling of a similar leadership rivalry at the 2012 Tour de France.

In 2023, Jumbo-Visma arrived at the Vuelta with a wealth of riches. Primoz Roglic, fresh off a Giro d’Italia win, and Jonas Vingegaard, the Tour de France champion, were both on the start line. But it was their faithful mountain domestique Sepp Kuss who unexpectedly found himself in the leader’s jersey midway through the race. What followed was a slow-burning tension that came to a head on Stage 17, where Vingegaard and Roglic appeared to attack their own teammate on a misty mountain.

The backlash was immediate. Why were two of the most dominant riders in the sport racing against their own man in red? The outlook was brutal: Kuss, the loyal helper, dropped and exposed, fighting to keep his dwindling lead while his teammates surged ahead. The public and pundit reaction forced the team into a reset. In the final stages, Vingegaard and Roglic, the two kings, fell in line, riding in service of Kuss and ensuring a historic result, three different riders, three Grand Tours, one team.

Yet, it did lead a sour taste in some people’s mouths. Was this sport, or just a game for Visma? Would most fans not liked to have seen a showdown between the three?

It was a masterclass in damage limitation, but only just. Had Kuss cracked entirely on Stage 17, the story would have been of a mutinous collapse. What saved Visma was their eventual unity. What nearly doomed them was indecision, ego, and a lack of clarity.

UAE Team Emirates - XRG now stand on that same precipice. Del Toro is in the position Kuss was in, loyal, talented, and unproven at this level, yet currently in command. Ayuso, although not as established as Vingegaard or Froome, is the more established GC talent with leadership status and a strong record. Unlike Kuss, though, Del Toro didn’t start the Giro as a domestique. He’s been free to ride his own race, and has proven himself time and again, and has not put a foot wrong yet.

Yet there’s hesitation, and UAE's approach on Stage 15 revealed a lack of conviction. When Del Toro joined Bernal and Carapaz in what could have been a race-defining move, the team held back, fearful of sacrificing Ayuso’s chances, they sacrificed a clear opportunity to break their rivals.

This is where the comparison with Team Sky in 2012 becomes instructive. That year, Bradley Wiggins was the team's designated leader, targeting the Tour de France. But Chris Froome, riding in support, showed flashes of superior form, notably on the steep mountain stages. On Stage 11 to La Toussuire, Froome dropped the entire GC group, including Wiggins, and had to be called back by the team. The incident sparked weeks of speculation, was Froome the stronger rider? Would Sky split their loyalties?

But Sky didn’t waver. They enforced a strict hierarchy, maintaining their plan to deliver Wiggins to Paris in yellow. Froome complied, and while some argue he could have won that Tour, the team left with its objective secured: a British winner, Sky’s first Tour title, and a clean display of discipline.

UAE lack that clarity. Unlike Sky, they haven’t publicly committed to a single leader just yet. Unlike Visma, they haven’t navigated this situation before. And unlike either team, they’re managing a generational transition in real time, Ayuso was supposed to be Pogacar’s heir-apparent. Now, Del Toro, even younger, is disrupting the succession plan.

To make matters more complex, Ayuso is not at full fitness. He crashed on Stage 1, and again on the brutal white gravel of Stage 9, requiring stitches to his knee. He’s looked increasingly strained on the climbs, even as he hangs on near the front. On Monte Grappa, it was Del Toro, not Ayuso, who was able to respond most decisively to the late attacks.

Unlike Visma at the Vuelta in 2023, who swept the podium, UAE do not have luxurious gap to all their other competitors, which leaves themin a dangerous bind. If they continue to split their focus, they risk burning both riders. Should Ayuso fade, and Del Toro be held back, the likes of Yates or Carapaz or maybe Bernal could exploit the indecision. The final week of the Giro is unforgiving, with back-to-back summit finishes and limited opportunities to recover. A moment’s hesitation, or a missed attack, and the pink jersey could be lost altogether.

This is where leadership matters, not just on the road, but from the team car. Joxean Matxin or one of his staff members need to make a call: back the strongest rider, or gamble everything on harmony. So far, the signs suggest they’re trying to hedge. But the Giro is not a race that rewards compromise.

Visma almost paid the price in Spain. Sky walked a tightrope in France. UAE are now dancing on the same wire in Italy. The consequences of a wrong step are enormous, not just for the outcome of this Giro, but for the future of both Ayuso and Del Toro. Alienate one, and you risk losing them. Back neither, and you might lose the race entirely.

If Del Toro was a proven quantity then the decision would have been made already. But for now, it appears the team has some concerns that he will fade in the brutal week three, but that does not guarantee that Ayuso won’t as well.

Of course, it’s possible that both riders maintain form and UAE sweep to an emphatic one-two. But that possibility grows slimmer with each stage. The margins are tightening. The attacks are coming. And UAE must decide: who are they really riding for?

If the answer isn’t clear by the end of this week, it might not matter. The race, and the pink jersey, could be gone.