ANALYSIS | Breaking down Jonas Vingegaard's huge dilemma for 2026 - Giro and Tour, or Tour-only?
CyclingWednesday, 26 November 2025 at 16:15
In just over a month, the 2026 road season will begin. It promises to be a pivotal year for cycling as a new three-year cycle gets underway. Yet beyond the usual promotions and relegations on the WorldTour, a huge part of the sport’s present and future may hinge on one decision: Jonas Vingegaard’s choice of race calendar.
The Team Visma | Lease a Bike leader knows the Tour de France will always be at the heart of his ambitions. It is cycling’s defining race, and he has already won it twice. But for weeks now, Vingegaard has made it clear that he wants to tackle the Giro d’Italia for the first time.
His debut is expected in 2026 — and that raises a big question: could riding the Giro actually harm the competitive balance of the sport?
If he commits fully to the Italian Grand Tour, his Tour de France build-up will inevitably take a hit. Arriving in July without three gruelling weeks already in the legs is very different from lining up after an all-out Giro. And that scenario plays directly into the hands of Tadej Pogacar, who has beaten Vingegaard comfortably in the last two Tours.
A weaker Tour weakens cycling
When the Tour lacks real tension, the entire sport feels it. The golden years of the Pogacar–Vingegaard rivalry came in 2021, 2022 and 2023, with the Slovenian winning the first and the Dane taking the next two. Since 2024, Pogacar has been firmly back on top — and dislodging him looks harder than ever.
So if Vingegaard adds a full Giro campaign to his programme, the balance tips further in Pogacar’s favour.
The timing isn’t ideal for Vingegaard
The only scenario that would level things out is Pogacar riding the Giro too — which might even give Vingegaard a slight advantage. The Slovenian is not expected to drop Milano–Sanremo or Paris–Roubaix from his goals, while Vingegaard isn’t targeting those spring monuments. That extra load would leave Pogacar with far more wear-and-tear.
But Pogacar lining up for the 2026 Giro is, realistically, off the table. Not just because of his own objectives, but because Isaac del Toro is locked in as UAE Team Emirates - XRG’s Giro leader after his superb 2025 season. The Mexican finished second at the Giro and won more than 15 races — a performance level that guarantees him another chance.
Still, riding the Giro doesn’t automatically doom Vingegaard’s Tour. Pogacar’s 2024 Giro–Tour double remains a reminder that it can be done. But even then, his Tour win came in a year where Vingegaard suffered a serious crash at Itzulia.
The final call sits with Vingegaard
When it comes down to it, the Dane faces two realistic paths:
- Ride the 2026 Giro d’Italia: He could become the first of the two superstars to win all three Grand Tours — Pogacar still lacks the Vuelta. But he would reach the Tour with reduced freshness, handing further advantage to the Slovenian, who will not be racing the Giro.
- Skip the 2026 Giro d’Italia: He could arrive at the Tour at 100%, giving cycling what it desperately wants: a genuinely competitive showdown with Pogacar. It would also leave him free to return to the Vuelta a Espana, where he would be the defending champion after his 2025 victory, with another major title up for grabs.
What’s the smarter 2026 plan for Vingegaard — Giro and Tour, or Tour-only? Let us know what you think.
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