Waste of time. At the age of 35 he can't compete with Tadej and Jonas. Probably not even Remco anymore.
You make it sound as if going to a grand tour Gc is useless because Tadej or Jonas are at the startlist. Champions aren't particularly born if they are afraid. On the other hand ROGLIČ did his best numbers ever at this race so why would he get scared and ignore the title that eludes him.
Even if Pog and Jonas crash out, Primoz won't be able to match Remco.
He'd be smarter to try and win another Giro.
No matter how all out he goes, he cannot win against Pogi and Jonas.
Assuming they're all healthy, I'd agree, but without either of them, I think he'd be the favorite. So it would make sense for him to target the race and see how it plays out. There are a lot of variables. Even just one bad day can be the difference in the race -- we saw Pogacar blow up in '23 and lose a lot of time. One dodgy piece of chicken at dinner could be the difference. Certainly not wishing disaster on any of them, and I don't think he would either, but you come in with the best form possible and you hope for the best for yourself. The race isn't always won by the person who seems to be the strongest at the outset.
I should add that I think it's next year or never. He's getting old and there's more competition coming up behind Jonas and Pogacar.
Anything can happen leading up to the Tour and in the Tour so nothing is ever guaranteed that Joans or Tadeg will win. Grand Tours aren't won on paper.
If he doesn’t show up he can’t win. If he’s there there’s a chance. Maybe only 1 in 20. But a chance nonetheless.