“A repeat of Zürich? Possible... You’ve got to expect a solo finish" - Tadej Pogacar still the man to beat in Kigali predicts Jose De Cauwer

As the 2025 World Championships roll towards what promises to be one of the most attritional editions of the men's elite road race in recent memory in Kigali, Rwanda this Sunday, former Belgian national coach and respected Sporza analyst José De Cauwer is under no illusions about what lies ahead.

"You’ve got to expect a solo finish," he said after personally scouting the Rwandan course for the Belgian broadcaster Sporza. “This is not a route where you sit in and wait — it’s going to break riders apart.”

And despite the high altitude, relentless gradients and unpredictable terrain, one name still stands above the rest: The reigning Rainbow Jersey, Tadej Pogacar.

With over 3,000 metres of climbing and a finish perched on a false flat, the Kigali course is a war of attrition disguised as a road race. The crown jewel of the route, Mont Kigali, may come with 100 kilometres still to ride — but its potential to blow the race wide open is not lost on De Cauwer.

"Mont Kigali could be absolutely decisive," he says. “It’s a real three-step climb, with steep ramps that will split the field. If it kicks off there, don’t expect a peloton to come over the top. Fifteen riders at most — and that's being generous."

The Slovenian superstar will need no invitation. Just last year in Zürich, Pogacar launched a seismic attack with over 100 kilometres remaining — an all-or-nothing move that secured him the Rainbow Jersey. The Rwandan profile invites similar audacity, but De Cauwer cautions that the added altitude — riders spend most of the day above 1,500 metres — may clip the wings of even the boldest. “A repeat of Zürich? Possible,” he says. “But this time, I think two laps solo is the upper limit. Riding 100 kilometres alone at this altitude? Almost impossible.”

For Belgium, the equation centres on one man: Remco Evenepoel. Can the 2022 world champion contain Pogacar’s punch if the Slovenian makes his move on Mont Kigali?

De Cauwer believes so — with a caveat. “If we’re talking about a good Evenepoel, he can follow. And even if he crests the climb slightly behind, that’s not fatal,” he explains. “Nobody is faster than him on the rolling terrain that follows. If Pogacar gets 15 seconds, Remco will reel him back in.”

It’s a tantalising tactical dynamic: Pogacar the attacker, Evenepoel the diesel-powered chaser. But De Cauwer isn’t convinced Mont Kigali will settle things entirely. “The real selection might come later,” he hints.

After Mont Kigali and the iconic Wall of Kigali — more symbolic than selective, according to De Cauwer — the race returns to a technical and punishing local circuit.

Hidden among the narrow roads and short climbs is the Côte de Kimihurura: 1.3km at 6.3%, cobbled and cruel, and in De Cauwer’s view, the most decisive ascent of the entire race. “It has the width of the Bosberg and the gradient of the Oude Kwaremont,” he says, referencing two of Flanders’ most storied climbs. “That dragging section at the top — it’s where Pogacar has put so many rivals to the sword in the past. This is the climb where a move can stick.”

Not far behind is the Côte de Kigali Golf — 800 metres at 8.1% — followed by a final kilometre that rises gently all the way to the line. No moment of respite. No margin for error.

Still, when pressed on the favourite, De Cauwer hesitates — but only slightly. “Until a few days ago, it was clearly Pogacar,” he admits. “Since the time trial, things have shifted a bit. But it’s still Pogacar. He’s always the man to beat.”

And yet, for all the Slovenian’s brilliance, De Cauwer places quiet faith in his Belgian compatriot. “If I had to race this myself,” he says, “I’d rather be in Evenepoel’s shoes.”

Regardless of who claims the stripes, De Cauwer’s overarching prediction is clear: this will be a race of attrition, and it won’t be won from the wheels. "With everything this course throws at the riders — the altitude, the heat, the terrain — you have to expect a solo finish," he says once more.