“We expected he would take some time back” - Visma wary of Thymen Arensman as INEOS leader emerges as Jonas Vingegaard's closest Giro challenger

Thymen Arensman has changed the shape of the Giro d’Italia podium fight. After Stage 10, Team Visma | Lease a Bike can still see the Maglia Rosa within touching distance for Jonas Vingegaard, but the rider closest to the Dane is not Felix Gall, Jai Hindley or even Ben O’Connor. It is Arensman.

The Netcompany INEOS leader finished second in the 42km time trial from Viareggio to Massa, behind only teammate Filippo Ganna, and jumped from sixth to third overall.

Afonso Eulalio still leads the Giro, 27 seconds ahead of Vingegaard, but Arensman is now only 1:30 behind the Visma leader and has moved ahead of the rest of the established podium contenders.

Arensman is a rider with a record of coming alive deep into Grand Tours, which makes his sudden rise far more significant for Visma than a simple reshuffle behind Vingegaard.

Speaking after the stage to TNT Sports, Visma sports director Marc Reef did not present Arensman’s ride as a shock. Vingegaard had taken time on most of his rivals, but the Dutchman was the exception.

“We took time on most of the guys, I think only Arensman took back around a minute,” Reef said. “But that’s also what we expected that he would take some time back.”

That line says plenty. Visma expected Arensman to gain ground in the time trial, but the scale of the result still changes the race. He did not just move closer. He became Vingegaard’s nearest serious GC rival behind Eulalio, while Gall slipped off the podium, Hindley lost ground and O’Connor moved up without matching Arensman’s impact.

Stage 10 was therefore more than a strong day for INEOS. It forced Visma to recalibrate the names they must watch once the Giro returns to the mountains.

The reason Arensman is dangerous is not only his position on GC. It is the timing of the race still to come. Arensman has already shown he can remain a factor deep into three-week races. At the 2022 Vuelta a Espana, he won the queen stage to Sierra Nevada, later finished second on Stage 20, and ended the race sixth overall. At the 2025 Tour de France, he again showed his ability to win in the mountains in the second half of a Grand Tour, including at La Plagne on Stage 19.

That history matters now. Some riders move up after a time trial and then spend the final week defending against the mountains. Arensman is different. His best Grand Tour results suggest the hardest part of the race does not automatically expose him. It can bring him forward.

For Visma, that makes him a more complicated threat. He can time trial, he can climb long mountains, and he has already proved he can still perform when a Grand Tour is at its most draining.

Vingegaard remains in the best position of the overall favourites. He is only 27 seconds behind Eulalio, has already won both summit finishes in this Giro, and still has terrain ahead that should suit him far better than the flat Stage 10 time trial.

Visma are also comfortable with Eulalio still carrying the Maglia Rosa for now. The Bahrain Victorious rider keeps the daily responsibility of the race lead, while Vingegaard remains close enough to strike without yet carrying the full burden of control. “Eulalio is still in pink and that’s also okay for us,” Reef said. “I think we can go forward with this situation.”

That may be true, but Stage 10 changed the identity of the rider most likely to complicate Visma’s route to pink. Eulalio still has the jersey. Vingegaard remains the favourite. Yet Arensman is now close enough, strong enough against the clock and proven enough in the final week to demand serious attention.

Gall began the day as Vingegaard’s closest mountain rival, but his time trial frailties pushed him down to fourth overall. Hindley slipped to sixth, O’Connor climbed to fifth, and Derek Gee-West moved into the top 10.

Arensman made the move that mattered most. His second place on the stage placed him third overall, 1:57 behind Eulalio and 1:30 behind Vingegaard. It also gave Netcompany INEOS a genuine GC card alongside their dominant stage win with Ganna.

The Giro is still tilted towards Vingegaard. But Visma now have a new problem to track. Arensman is not just closer on time. He is closer on time with the type of Grand Tour profile that suggests the final week could make him more dangerous, not less.