The standout dark horse - Tobias Johannessen could upset all the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes favourites

The 2026 Tour Auvergne Rhône Alpes (heir to the historic Critérium du Dauphiné) shapes up as one of the season’s most anticipated fixtures. The French race will again serve as the major dress rehearsal for the Tour de France and gather many of the world’s top GC riders, including a Tobias Johannessen who could spring a surprise.

As happens every year, media attention narrows to a handful of names. This time, virtually every shortlist for the Tour Auvergne places Paul Seixas and Isaac del Toro on the top rung of favourites.

The Frenchman arrives on the back of such a spectacular breakthrough that, at just 19, some already consider him capable of taking on Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard at the next Tour de France, no less than on debut. Del Toro, for his part, tackles the race as leader of UAE Team Emirates XRG before stepping into domestique duties for Pogacar in July, a prime chance to keep proving he belongs in the world elite.

Behind them sits a second wave of contenders featuring riders of the calibre of Juan Ayuso, Oscar Onley, Mattias Skjelmose, Joao Almeida, Kevin Vauquelin, and Cian Uijtdebroeks, who will captain the Movistar Team.

Yet amid all the noise, one name is slipping too far under the radar. A rider who already showed last year he can mix it with the best over three weeks and who has kept stepping up in 2026. That name is the aforementioned Tobias Johannessen.

Perhaps the main mistake the cycling world is making is to keep labelling Johannessen as a secondary option. At 26, the Norwegian is no longer an up-and-comer or an occasional surprise. He is an established rider who has shown consistency, resilience, and the ability to perform at the top level for weeks.

His summer of 2025 was the definitive confirmation. First he finished fifth at the Dauphiné, trading blows with some of the world’s best climbers. Later, at the Tour de France, he delivered an outstanding ride to finish sixth overall, becoming one of the revelations of the race.

That performance carried special weight because it came on the sport’s most demanding stage. It was not a purple week or a course tailored to him. Johannessen was competitive for three weeks, held firm in high mountains, managed his bad moments well, and showed a tactical maturity unusual for a rider still taking his first steps among Grand Tour elites. Far from being a ceiling, that Tour appears to have been the launchpad to a new competitive level.

If anyone needed proof that Johannessen keeps progressing, his results from the opening months of 2026 are enough.

The Uno-X Mobility rider opened his season with a commendable ninth overall at the UAE Tour. Not a headline result, but a clear sign of steadiness in an increasingly demanding race with a stacked field.

He then rode Strade Bianche, finishing 23rd. Modest on paper, yet perfectly understandable in a race whose terrain favours very different rider profiles and which ended with another Pogacar masterclass.

The real confirmation came at Tirreno–Adriatico. There he again showed that stage races are his natural habitat. Johannessen finished fourth overall, just 32 seconds off the podium. More important was how he did it. On the decisive Camerino stage he placed second, displaying outstanding climbing form and proving he could go toe to toe with some of the peloton’s best GC men.

Not content to settle, he kept stacking strong performances through the spring. He was second at Milano–Torino and then claimed one of the best results of his career with third overall at Itzulia 2026.

That ride in the Basque Country was especially telling. Johannessen did not merely defend. He raced on the front foot, took risks, and showed an ambition that is increasingly part of his sporting identity.

His final outing before switching all focus to the Tour Auvergne Rhône Alpes came at Liège–Bastogne–Liège. There he again underlined his remarkable consistency with ninth in one of the calendar’s most prestigious Monuments.

Beyond the results, there’s a fundamental reason to view Johannessen as a serious podium contender: the route seems tailor‑made for his skill set. The Norwegian brings a valuable blend in modern cycling. He climbs with the best once he locks into rhythm, defends himself well in time trials, and, above all, almost never has catastrophic days.

While other riders build their chances on explosive attacks or one-off heroics, Johannessen constructs his general classifications through consistency. That trait is especially important in week-long races, where a single bad day can undo all the work.

He also arrives with a crucial edge over several direct rivals: the recent experience of shining at a Tour de France. Neither media pressure nor the hardest high mountains seem to faze him anymore.

There’s another factor that could greatly benefit Uno-X Mobility’s leader: the absence of pressure. All eyes will be on Seixas. The young Frenchman faces a particularly complex race after months living under massive expectation. Every stage will be scrutinized, and any small mistake will make headlines.

Del Toro won’t enjoy much calm either. As UAE Team Emirates XRG’s leader, he’ll be obliged to meet the expectations of a structure used to winning.

Johannessen, by contrast, arrives in a far more comfortable position. No one demands victory from him. Few see him as the outright favorite. And that may be his greatest strength.

Riders outside the media spotlight often enjoy far greater tactical freedom. They can afford to cede a few seconds strategically, pick their moments, and exploit the marking between the big names.

The question feels inevitable. On paper, Seixas and Del Toro remain the men to beat. Their potential is huge, and both have enough tools to control the general classification.

However, the gap between the favorites and Johannessen is likely smaller than many imagine. Over the last twelve months, the Norwegian has shown he can sustain maximal efforts in high mountains, perform over several weeks, and has reached exceptional consistency. Moreover, his trajectory doesn’t seem to have stalled. That’s why it’s surprising he barely features in the pre-race conversations.

If he holds the level shown at Tirreno–Adriatico and Itzulia, the podium should be a fully realistic target. And once he’s in the fight for the top spots, race circumstances could even open the door to victory.

The Tour Auvergne–Rhône–Alpes tends to reward complete, resilient, and consistent riders. The three qualities that best define Tobias Johannessen right now.

Perhaps in a few days the peloton will realize the real dark horse wasn’t so hidden after all. Perhaps the “big surprise” has been taking shape before our eyes for months. And perhaps, while everyone watched Seixas and Del Toro, the Uno-X Mobility Norwegian was quietly preparing the most important strike of his career.