“Roubaix is harder for Tadej to win, but there’s nothing he can’t do” - Mathieu van der Poel assesses Pogacar challenge ahead of Paris-Roubaix showdown

Mathieu van der Poel heads into Paris-Roubaix 2026 with history on the line, but also with no illusions about the challenge waiting for him on Sunday.

Tadej Pogacar has already beaten him at Milano-Sanremo and the Tour of Flanders this spring, yet the Dutchman believes Roubaix could produce a different kind of race altogether.

That is not because Pogacar suddenly becomes any less dangerous on the cobbles. If anything, Van der Poel made clear he has seen enough already to know the world champion can win here too. But unlike Flanders, where Pogacar’s climbing power allowed him to rise above the rest, Roubaix offers a flatter, more chaotic and more tactical contest.

“There are a few more favourites here than in Flanders, because there, Pogacar clearly stands above the rest," says the Dutchman in quotes collected by HLN ahead of Paris-Roubaix. "I think, or hope, that it will be different in Roubaix.”

That contrast with last weekend is central to Van der Poel’s thinking. The Dutchman was beaten by Pogacar in the Ronde van Vlaanderen, but he dismissed the idea that the result would have changed had he raced differently in Belgium.

“Not following Tadej wouldn’t have changed the result,” Van der Poel said firmly. “There’s a difference between going all-out and just doing your turns. I was simply on the wheel and if I stop working there it’s also anti-racing. We’re going to face each other many more times, so it’s better to keep things good between us.”

Roubaix, though, is another kind of Monument. There are no steep cobbled climbs like the Oude Kwaremont or Paterberg to allow Pogacar to ride rivals off his wheel in the same way. That does not make the race easier, but it does make it less straightforward for any one rider to impose himself.

“Any scenario works for me. It will obviously be difficult to drop him, but the opposite is also true. Let’s just hope nobody has bad luck, especially in a race like Roubaix. There are no climbs to make the difference, so that makes it harder to open a gap.”

That reading of the race also explains why Van der Poel appears more relaxed about the likely scenarios than he did before Flanders. Roubaix is a Monument where mechanicals, positioning and support riders can shape the outcome as much as the two biggest names.

For Alpecin, that matters. Jasper Philipsen remains a major weapon if the race comes back together late, while Van der Poel also pointed to the need to stay ahead of the chase rather than be forced into it. “In Roubaix, we have the ideal scenario because Jasper also has a sprint as an option. But everyone has seen how strong Florian is. We mainly need to avoid a situation where we have to chase.”

That mention of Florian Vermeersch was no throwaway line either. Pogacar’s UAE support rider has been one of the strongest men on the cobbles this spring, and Van der Poel is clearly expecting the race to be shaped not just by the two headliners, but by the depth around them.

For all the discussion of tactics and terrain, Van der Poel did not try to downplay what Pogacar represents. The Slovenian crashed out of a winning position last year and still finished second on debut, which has changed the way even his biggest rivals talk about his chances. “Roubaix is harder for Tadej to win, but no one dares to say anymore that there’s something he can’t do. Last year, he showed that he can definitely win here.”

Van der Poel, of course, is chasing a piece of history of his own. A fourth straight Paris-Roubaix win would push him into completely new territory, even by the standards of this race’s great champions. He admitted that the record is on his mind, while also acknowledging that such runs do not last forever. “That’s definitely on my mind, but I’m also realistic enough to realise I can’t keep that run going forever. There will be a year when it doesn’t work out.”

Paris-Roubaix now looms as the next chapter in the season’s defining rivalry. Van der Poel knows Pogacar can win it. He also knows Sunday may offer a more open race than Flanders did. That, more than anything, is why Roubaix still feels so finely balanced.