Preview. Jumbo-Visma will win their third Grand Tour of the season and with the third different rider. Hence, stage 21 of the Vuelta a Espana will be a celebration day, whilst the sprinters will fight for one final stage win.
The race finally reaches it's end, into Madrid. A short flat day with no difficulties, it will be a big reward for the fast men who've survived a brutal race to make it into Madrid.
The day will see the peloton ride into the city where they will tackle a 5.8-kilometer circuit a total of nine times. The riders will have an 180 degree turn with 3.5 kilometers to go and a sharp right hander with 2.4 which will be natural selection points, with the bunch stretching out. The final straight will be 1.1 kilometers long after a long roundabout, with the bunch sprint set to be a regular one, hopefully with no crashes in sight.
The Weather
Rain early in the afternoon should make the roads wet and sketchy. Not ideal safety wise. The wind will also blow, meaningfully from the southwest, a tailwind sprint will be in place.
The Favourites
Kaden Groves - Maybe the fastest man in the race, but that doesn't mean in any way he's the man to beat. A sprint is much more than the watts, Groves has the points classification safe, but he will want to take a third win to wrap off the race perfectly - although it will not be easy with a few leadout men missing.
Juan Sebastián Molano - Having missed the opportunity on stage 19, Molano and Rui Oliveira will be trying to work as perfectly as they did in the second week to net another stage win. It can work, the tailwind sprint is well suited to the Colombian.
Filippo Ganna - Also well suited to Ganna I would say. He has the sprint to win in a day like this with this field. INEOS rode the finale of stage 19 perfectly and have a set leadout. Adding to this a tailwind sprint, where the big powerhouse riders will have some sort of advantage, we could see him take his first World Tour sprint win.
Alberto Dainese - But riders can come from behind. Ganna knows this perfectly, Alberto Dainese missed several sprints at the Vuelta, but as was the case in other Grand Tours, at times he shows up and is in perfect position. It could happen again, although Team DSM-Firmenich had several riders go down in the leadout yesterday.
The field will be present and it is the last sprint opportunity. It can be a glorious day for other outsiders, as Geoffrey Soupe has already proven. Edward Theuns and Marijn van den Berg have the speed to take a win in this field, but there will be other riders that, if all the pieces of the puzzle fit, can also take a very important victory.
Here I would include Hugo Hofstetter, Ivan García Cortina, Hugo Page, Boy van Poppel, Dries van Gestel, Andrea Vendrame, Lewis Askey and Davide Cimolai.
Prediction Vuelta a Espana 2023 stage 21:
*** Kaden Groves, Filippo Ganna
** Juan Sebastián Molano, Alberto Dainese
* Marijn van den Berg, Edward Theuns, Ivan García Cortina, Geoffrey Soupe, Davide Cimolai, Milan Menten
Pick: Filippo Ganna