PREVIEW | Volta a Catalunya 2024 stage 3 - Tadej Pogacar's race to lose at brutal Port Ainé summit finish

Tadej Pogacar has, as expected, taken control of the Volta a Catalunya. The UAE Team Emirates has dominated the first summit finish of the race and is the ultimate favourite to win atop Port Ainé on stage 3.

The third day of racing in Catalunya is quite hard and it goes through some ascents that are familiar to those that have already spent time in Catalunya. A flat start, but then the peloton heads towards the first difficult climb, the Port de Toses which is, towards it's summit, 3.7 kilometers at 9%.

it's a slow rise until that time, and the climb goes up to almost 1800 meters of altitude. What follows is a very long and downhill valley run that will take the riders into the next ascent. This will be a longer one, very inconsistent one, but ultimately also a warm-up in the big picture of the day. The second climb of the day is the Port del Cantó which is 24-7 kilometers at 4.4%. The start of the ascent is the hardest section, and it's another ascent going above 1700 meters of altitude, with the top at 43 kilometers to go.

A descent follows and then the riders go into Port Ainé. This is a tough old climb. A traditional in the race, it features both distance and gradients. A climb with several direction changes, it is over 18 kilometers in length averaging 6.5%. It is also relatively inconsistent, following much steeper gradients right at the base but specially in the final kilometers. At almost 2000 meters of altitude, it is another summit finish where this can be a factor in play.

The Weather

No rain which will be better, mostly for spectators trying to watch the broadcast. The riders will appreciate slightly better weather, the wind should also be rather absent - only a small breeze from the south that shouldn't affect the day.

The Favourites

Tadej Pogacar - UAE will not let the breakaway go, they have too strong of a team and too high chances of winning again to just let a group go, and this early in the race not too many riders have a big leash. If they push for the big man he will certainly win; he was head and shoulders above the rest today and even if he doesn't do the same performance, he will still be the overwhelming favourite.

Fight for 2nd place - The real interest, in my opinion, becomes the fight for the podium now. With no time-trials, it all comes down to the mountains and Port Ainé will already be a very interesting challenge. We've got a few interesting figures that took the lead today in Vallter 2000 who were a motivated Mikel Landa and Aleksandr Vlasov who just came off Paris-Nice. Both pure climbers, they will start to think about their quality podium and most likely look to race more defensively.

In a second row of competitors we've got Lenny Martínez, Chris Harper, Egan Bernal, Enric Mas and João Almeida. The latter does not need to work, and could jump up if Pogacar goes on the attack again and he can play tactically behind. All of these riders carry good chances of dropping some of the current podium figures; I would specially look at Martínez and possibly Bernal because of the altitude involved.

Wout Poels, Sepp Kuss and Simon Yates could be outsiders, riders who can have a better day than today and finish significantly higher.

We could expect a few riders to try a breakaway already, the start of the stage is tough and realistically no-one will be winning a stage by trying to directly overpower or outsmart Pogacar. In a better day and with some luck, a few quality riders such as Harold Tejada, Guillaume Martin, Michael Woods, Hugh Carthy and Esteban Cháves could take a season-changing win; all are top climbers who can thrive on their best day.

Prediction Volta a Catalunya 2024 stage 3:

*** Tadej Pogacar
** Mikel Landa, Aleksandr Vlasov
* Lenny Martínez, Chris Harper, Egan Bernal, Enric Mas, João Almeida, Sepp Kuss, Simon Yates, Harold Tejada

Pick: Tadej Pogacar