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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2023 stage 2 - San Sebastián hosts hilly finale where sprinters, climbers and classics specialists will all eye victory
CyclingSunday, 02 July 2023 at 10:19
Preview. The Tour de France has gotten off to an explosive and exciting start, and stage 2 in the Basque Country will also deliver some spectacle, as the riders tackle the Jaizkibel before the likely sprint in San Sebastián.
The second day of racing at the Tour de France won't be too different, only this time with a finale in Donostian San Sebastián. The decisive climbs of the Clasica San Sebastián won't be ridden, however the Jaizkibel will and will also be positioned relatively close to the finish. A more open second day, where climbers, puncheurs, rouleurs and sprinters all have a chance of succeeding.
Estimated start and finish times for Tour de France stage 2: 12:15-17:05CET
Stage 2: Vitoria-Gasteiz - Donostia San Sebastián, 210.1 kilometers
A more flat start, however throughout the day there will be four categorized ascents - and a few others - before the main ascent of the day, which is likely to make it a bit more difficult for the sprinters. However that will be if the pace is pushed, otherwise most riders will get through comfortably. With 36.5 kilometers to go there is the Côte de Gurutze which is 2.5 kilometers at 5%, but then comes the biggest moment of the race.
Featuring 7.9 kilometers at 5.2%, it is a respectful climb, ridden in the opposite direction of what the riders face in the Clásica. A small 1 kilometer slight descent makes it a climb of two halves too, the final 3.7Km have 7.1% gradient. In all honesty, the climb will likely see minimum of 20 or 30 riders if the pace is pushed quite hard, but this is unlikely. A peloton of around 50 riders is expected, perhaps some can come back in the final descent.
Alto de Jaizkibel: 7.9Km; 5.2%; 16.5Km to go
The descent has a few technical sections, the climb ends with 16.5 kilometers to go and then the final 9 kilometers are flat. There is time to organize, there is also time to attack. There are few corners from there on all the way into the finish. With 3 kilometers to go comes a small rise which is 900 meters long at 4% which provides another spot to attack, but then the finishing straight will be flat.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2023 stage 2
Some nortwestern wind like today which will see a bit of head and crosswind in the Jaizkibel, however it won't be very strong. There are also slight chances of rain, some roads may be humid and lead to trickier descents.
The Favourites
The action will be interesting on this day. I don't think a breakaway is to already succeed, teams have pushed very hard today and with no doubt the pace will be high ahead of the many climbs and descents the riders will find, meaning that despite the many talented climbers who already have freedom, this most likely isn't a day for them. However they may be able to attack in the finale and use their climbing quality to succeed with a late attack.
Some of these riders can find that freedom as they do not fight for the GC, or in other cases they are within range of the yellow jersey but won't likely be covered by the likes of Yates, Vingegaard or Pogacar. Home riders Pello Bilbao and Ion Izagirre are terrific descenders and will have the spark to risk it all for this type of stage. Other climbers such as Felix Gall or Giulio Ciccone could make the difference in the climb, daredevil descender Matej Mohoric will with certainty have this day under eye for a long time due to the final descent, whilst other puncheurs such as Dylan Teuns, Valentin Madouas or Neilson Powless could try their luck.
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The peloton will be broken, not in the same way as today as it was an explosive climb, a more compact group is expected. A GC fight the same way won't happen however the climbers will have to stay sharp and focused. Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Adam Yates will likely cover each other as the GC battle is fully on - and UAE won't surely be too interested in keeping the lead currently. Others could take advantage of that, Simon Yates showed today excellent form, but also the likes of Thibaut Pinot, Mattias Skjelmose, Michael Woods and Victor Lafay could enjoy an attack if they aren't right away covered.
If a late attack doesn't decide the stage however, a sprint should. As we've seen today - even if we ignore Tadej Pogacar - someone in the first chasing group could sprint, Wout van Aert. He will then resist this climb certainly, but the question is if a sprint takes place. Corbin Stong and Alex Aranburu looked very strong sprinting from the second chasing group, whilst the pure puncheurs Mathieu van der Poel, Julian Alaphilippe and Tom Pidcock could also be in the mix.
A lot will depend on how fast the riders will race Jaizkibel. The final kilometers do allow for riders to come back and the winner could come from there, if they find themselves on a very strong day. The likes of Mads Pedersen, Fred Wright, Luka Mezgec, Magnus Cort Nielsen and Biniam Girmay are the type of riders who could surprise on such a tricky day, I wouldn't even exclude Jasper Philipsen after how strongly he rode in the spring.
Prediction Tour de France 2023 stage 2:
*** Wout van Aert, Alex Aranburu
** Tadej Pogacar, Pello Bilbao, Matej Mohoric, Corbin Strong
* Giulio Ciccone, Mattias Skjelmose, Thibaut Pinot, Victor Lafay, Mathieu van der Poel, Julian Alaphilippe, Tom Pidcock, Mads Pedersen, Fred Wright
Pick: Wout van Aert
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