PREVIEW | Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 stage 4 - Pidcock, Ayuso and Vingegaard outsiders for tricky day with hilltop finish

Tirreno-Adriatico is having another very open day with a hilltop finish. Stage 4 of the Italian stage-race could end with a surprise as many types of rider should be able to succeed in the uphill finale into Giulianova.

A very tricky day of racing. One for a possible breakaway, reduced bunch sprint, or perhaps an actual sprint that doesn't face too many casualties beforehand. The main point of the day is quite obvious: the Valico di Castellucio. It is 16.9 kilometers at 5%, a tough climb for pure sprinters. However it starts 50 kilometers into the stage and ends with 138 to go, it will be hard to see any team commit.

The riders come back down once again close to sea level. The difficulties lay later into the 208-kilometer long day. A small hilltop summits with 13.5 kilometers to go, some teams may try to push the pace there to further put the fast men into difficulties, however it may all come down to the final kilometers.

A very fast descent will take place into Giulianova, the fight for positioning before and after this descent section will be crazy. The descent ends and the final hilltop will be there right away. 1.8 kilometers at 3%.

A climb that features 5/6% grades in it's first half with a sweeping hairpin and another sharp turn into the final straight which happens with 700 meters to go. From there on a 2% rise to the line. Some riders will be suffocated and they will not really be able to rest. It is completely straightforward and a bunch sprint is likely, but there is definitely space for a surprise.

The Weather

Cold temperatures early in the day and possible rain throughout the day. The descent of Castelluccio will be a moment of great tension specially on likely wet or at least humid roads. Late in the day wind shows up by the coast, but it won't particularly favour anyone. The final climb is mostly covered but the final straight has a tailwind, which can benefit attackers who take the risk.

The Favourites

Sprinter to win on the day? - It is not impossible. This is a punchy day but don't be mistaken, it has nothing to do with an Ardennes classic. A sprint is likely between a reduced group featuring some classics riders, climbers and some surviving sprinters. The outcome of this will depend on how hard the race was until that point. A late attack can succeed but most of the front will be decided in a sprint. The likes of Jasper Philipsen, Phil Bauhaus, Marius Mayrhofer, Soren Waerenskjold, Jonathan Milan, Corbin Strong, Biniam Girmay, Andrea Vendrame, Axel Zingle and Amaury Capiot can be dangerous.

The climb is harder than today, but today a few riders pulled through quite well. The likes of Milan, Zingle and Strong are specially dangerous - the latter two more puncheurs, but Milan is in terrific form and if he survives the final climb near the front he could be unbeatable in a sprint.

Of course do not discard the climbers. This is in no way terrain for Jonas Vingegaard but a rider of this caliber you simply cannot discard under any scenario including a climb. The likes of Juan Ayuso, Daniel Martínez, Isaac del Toro and even Vingegaard's teammate Attila Valter all pack a strong puch and could succeed with a sprint if the pace is hard enough throughout the climb. GC riders will struggle to win on the day however as in these gradients it's not overly hard to cover an attack.

However on a day like this, puncheurs have the biggest say in the finale. In their prime, the likes of Julian Alaphilippe and Marc Hirschi would be absolute favourites; but currently mere outsiders. Riders like Tom Pidcock, Iván García Cortina, Alberto Bettiol and Simone Velasco definitely have the legs to win in a reduced sprint whilst French duo Kévin Vauquelin and Romain Grégoire are tremendously dangerous for a late attack.

Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 stage 4:

*** Jonathan Milan, Axel Zingle
** Corbin Strong, Jasper Philipsen, Juan Ayuso
* Marius Mayrhofer, Soren Waerenskjold, Biniam Girmay, Andrea Vendrame, Amaury Capiot, Daniel Martínez, Tom Pidcock, Alberto Bettiol, Kévin Vauquelin, Romain Grégoire

Pick: Jonathan Milan