PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 5 - Perfect finish for Mads Pedersen, but will someone like Pidcock surprise?

The Corsa Rosa is the first Grand Tour of the season and this year it will include a start in a nation that will for the first time in it's history host a Grand Tour, Albania; and also several mountain stages in it's second half whilst the first half will feature some tricky stages including one that goes through a lot of the Strade Bianche course. We preview stage 5.

A short stage with a very interesting finale, where in true Giro form, the organizers leave way for multiple scenarios. The finale into Matera is slightly uphill and comes after a few hills. We could have a reduced bunch sprint or a late attack succeeding here as the peloton heads back northwest and into central Italy.

Most of the day is relatively uneventful, a transition day although one that only has 151 kilometers in distance, but it will get quite explosive towards the finale. It will kick off in the climb to Montescaglioso which is 2.9 kilometers at 8.3% and ends with 28 kilometers to go. It is the hardest ascent of the day, and the one where a few teams may push the pace to truly burn off the pure sprinters.

They may struggle later on, but the terrain will never be truly steep. The finale into Matera is always a hilly one, but features a few separate ascents. 5.6 kilometers at 4.6% with 12 kilometers to go will do some damage, but the riders descend out off town again and then go back up through some more inconsistent and explosive roads.

One small ascent finishes with 4.2 kilometers to go, then with 1.9 kilometers to go ends a 700-meter ramp at 8% (with a 10% maximum) where there can very well be a few dangerous attacks. It will be the main kick up and put many on the limit. The finale will be technical, and after a little descent the final 1.2 kilometers gently rise once again inside the city. Ultimately there will be a slightly uphill sprint, but one where the sprinters that survive will absolutely have the advantage.

No meaningful wind will be felt, there won't be much effect in the day's outcome.

Mads Pedersen - It sounds rather repetitive by this point in the race, but the truth is that this is Pedersen's stage to lose. He won't have the pressure, but if Lidl-Trek can control all attacks that may come, it will be very hard for anyone to beat the Dane here. The climbs allow for the rival sprinters to get dropped, but he should comfortably survive the climbs before the final sprint. If Giulio Ciccone and Mathias Vacek are willing to sacrifice themselves to once again make it happen, then it's a likely win.

The main rivals - Who they are depends on the pace in the 3-kilometer long climb. If it's hard, then the same riders who were dropped on stage 1 or 3 will be dropped here, because that one is difficult and steep. Corbin Strong and Filippo Fiorelli are the two riders with a strong sprint who may survive - and don't get me wrong, Strong does seem to have the legs to properly challenge Pedersen. But if the pace is not too strong, riders like Kaden Groves, Olav Kooij and Paul Magnier could very well survive those explosive short efforts towards the line and then contest for a sprint. Orluis Aular is somewhere in the middle, whilst Wout van Aert will only be able to contest the stage if his form has improved quite a bit over the past few days.

In a sprint we could see other riders fighting for minor places, or with some luck (or the right circumstances) a bit more than just that. Quinten Hermans, Edoardo Zambanini, Luca Mozzato, Stefano Oldani, Andrea Vendrame, Dorian Godon, Francesco Busatto, Rick Pluimers and Jon Barrenetxea will all be looking towards such a scenario.

Certainly however (and I say certainly, but it doesn't mean they actually will, specially taking into consideration the peloton's behaviour in stages 1 and 3) there will be riders with good chances that will be aware that their best chances of winning are with an attack on that final steep climb. Tom Pidcock, Diego Ulissi, Christian Scaroni, Paul Double and Felix Engelhardt are riders very well suited to such an effort who can sprint to a good result but would likely want to split things up in the climb itself.

The GC riders will have to be very attentive not to lose time, but also to respond to attacks if it happens in those final kilometers. They will be the ones taking over most of the space at the head of the peloton, and likely to sprint as it will be a small peloton and an uphill sprint. Primoz Roglic will always be very well present, although he and Juan Ayuso are unlikely to attack but rather try and save the legs a lot. I think UAE do have a say in this finale after Jay Vine won a similar finale in Romandie and also Isaac del Toro looks to be in incredible form; whilst aggressive and explosive riders like Romain Bardet and Richard Carapaz could well try to launch an attack to disrupt the natural order of things.

*** Mads Pedersen
** Kaden Groves, Olav Kooij, Paul Magnier, Corbin Strong
* Wout van Aert, Filippo Fiorelli, Orluis Aular, Andrea Vendrame, Tom Pidcock, Francesco Busatto, Diego Ulissi, Rick Pluimers, Primoz Roglic

Pick: Mads Pedersen

How: Sprint between the survivors