Stage 1: Venaria Reale - Torino, 136 kilometers
A few ascents will come beforehand, but the real action begins at the Colle Maddalena. It will be far enough from the finish that the race can be reshaped afterwards, to attribute the first pink jersey. This climb is over 6 kilometers at 7% (depending on which race map you count with) and ends with 22 kilometers to go. Not an overly hard climb, but with some strong pace the sprinters will mostly be dropped. This provides opportunities for attacks as well.
Colle Maddalena: 6.1Km; 7.4%; 22Km to go
A climb close to the finish, which is 1.5 kilometers at 8.6%, could see the decisive attack for the stage win. This is the last-minute addition of the hilltop into San Vito. It changes the stage completely, riders will now certainly focus on this ascent as it is hard enough to make differences. Few will risk attacking beforehand. This climb has gradients go as high as 16% close to it's summit which comes with only 3 kilometers to go.
A downhill finale will follow, very quickly the riders reach Torino and only the final meters will be flat. Gaps over the top, an attack in the climb, can be decisive to attribute the first stage win.
The Weather
Map Giro d'Italia 2024 stage 1
A tiny breeze from the east but nothing that should impact the day. A nice sunny spring day in Italy without anything meaningful to point out.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - Let's be real. Regardless of how much he wants or doesn't want ultimate favourite status, he's got it. Pogacar is the main favourite to win the Giro by far and the main favourite to win the first stage by far as well. His climbing is superior to the rest of the field and that includes these short steep ascents. There will be climbing beforehand which will damage the classics riders, but either ways an opportunity to win a stage, take time on the competition and put on the first pink jersey is too much not to seize, as long as he has the legs. I think he will have, as he's had every single day this season.
CG fight - This will be a day for the GC riders, don't be mistaken. Doesn't mean they are all the contenders for the stage win, but in such climbs differences can be made and these riders will be forced to go all-out. Some may take time on rivals already; specially as some riders, like
Geraint Thomas for example, may be coming into the race undercooked and not in their best form yet. So those with good legs on the day may try to take advantage of it. The climb summits almost in the end of the stage and a descent follows so gaps at the top will not really be closed down. I expect the likes of
Romain Bardet and
Ben O'Connor to try and take and take advantage of it; mainly as Thomas' main rivals, but also as two riders who like these types of efforts.
The rest of the field will do as they feel really, I don't have specific expectations. BORA duo Florian Lipowitz and Daniel Martínez can be quite dangerous - but only if the Colombian has the form he showed at the Volta ao Algarve, which is unlikely. Alexey Lutsenko, Antonio Tiberi and Juan Pedro López are riders I expect to see having a good day. Thymen Arensman surely will not wait for Thomas if the Welshman is suffering, and I would add Luke Plapp as an outsider. Not sure if he will aim for GC but such a finale suits him quite well. Other riders will stick to the wheels and finish as best as possible, but I expect everyone to wait for Pogacar's move.
Can a non-GC rider surprise and match Pogacar?
If there were world-class classics rider at the start Pogacar's favouritism wouldn't be the same, but many climbers and specialists are missing. Outside of the GC riders the responsibility lies on
Laurence Pithie, one of the big breakthroughs of the season and incredibly talented puncheur who can certainly ride something like this with the best; and
Julian Alaphilippe who I don't deposit too many hopes, but at his best level he would certainly be one of the few in the world who can come close to Pogacar.
I consider other puncheurs such as Jhonatan Narváez, Max Schachmmann, Michael Woods, Andrea Bagioli and Mauri Vansevenant to have a shot at a good stage result. However, several of these have not shown their best form recently, and if that's the case it will be very hard to consider them. Some talented puncheurs such as Quinten Hermans, Christian Scaroni and Ewan Costiou could also play a role in such a day.
What about the sprinters?
The stage will not be decided in a peloton sprint or anything close, that is clear. But still, in the fight for minor places - possibly thinking of the points classification as well - if the finale isn't raced too hard, some fast men may have a shot at filling in some places in the Top10, since a few can certainly climb. This includes a few riders mentioned above, but certainly some like Andrea Vendrame and Tobias Lund Andresen can do quite well as they have shown stunning form over the past week at Romandie and Turkey respectively. Add to the mix Kaden Groves, Biniam Girmay, Matteo Trentin and Visma duo Christophe Laporte and Olav Kooij and we've got an interesting list.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 1:
*** Tadej Pogacar
** Romain Bardet, Laurence Pithie
* Alexey Lutsenko, Daniel Martínez, Florian Lipowitz, Ben O'Connor, Antonio Tiberi, Jhonatan Narváez, Julian Alaphilippe, Mauri Vansevenant, Andrea Vendrame, Tobias Lund Andresen
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
