“Pogacar can reach the summit with a one-minute gap”: Rasmussen doubts compatriot Vingegaard on the Tourmalet
Cycling
Former pro Michael Rasmussen believes the Tour de France battle could take a decisive twist very soon, specifically on stage six when the race hits the Pyrenees. In that scenario, he sees scope for Tadej Pogacar to open significant gaps on Jonas Vingegaard.
The day starts in Pau, packs around 4,100 metres of elevation, and concentrates its main difficulties in the final 80 kilometres. First comes the Col d’Aspin, before tackling the Col du Tourmalet, a 17-kilometre climb at 7.3% average that rises above 2,000 metres. A similar stage to the Cauterets finale in 2023, where Vingegaard attacked from far and tried to cement the GC, but was matched and then counter-attacked by the Slovenian who took back time.
Rasmussen views this point as pivotal for the race’s development. “There’s a real risk the race is decided here,” he told Viaplay, stressing the Tourmalet’s potential as a breaking point.
The Dane even floats a long-range attack mid-climb. “They can make the move five kilometres from the top of the Tourmalet,” he explained, suggesting Pogacar’s team could lift the pace before the summit. If the World Champions shows his best level already from an early point in the race, he could well anticipate and try to gain time before Vingegaard's recovery ability begins to balance things out as has happened in the past.
Michael Rasmussen in the colours of Rabobank, the current Visma team
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The first days at the Tour will provide accurate insight into the form of both riders and how they may fare in the first high mountain stage. But whilst it comes early on, the Dane believes the Col du Tourmalet may come as a decisive point in the entire three weeks.
In his view, that move could translate into meaningful gaps on the upper slopes. “He could crest the summit with a one-minute lead over Vingegaard,” Rasmussen added, placing the Slovenian ahead at the top if the pace is high enough.
The former rider also warns what could happen if the group shatters on the climb. “The gap could grow to two minutes before the finish,” he noted, pointing out the advantage could widen between the summit, the descent, and the run-in.
Rasmussen also recalls recent editions, where Pogacar has struck early in the race, while Visma | Lease a Bike have tried to respond by hardening the contest on varied terrain without definitive success.
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
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Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
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- It doesnt take a genius to understand that Pogi is 1 level above and Pogi is younger that Jonas, so Jonas will not win under ordinary circumstances. Pogi has to crack hard for Jonas to win. It doesn't matter whether you defend Jonas or not , facts remain facts. Jonas himself says his numbers are better than 2022/2023, so Jonas is more or less optimized and we are just see the stochastic variation due to other factors. I think he will retire along with Pedersen in WC denmarkabstractengineer13-11-2026
- They only raced each other during the 2026 Tour, but here's a few metrics to look at. Stage 3 (Granollers to Les Angles): Pogačar won the stage, finishing 2 seconds ahead of Vingegaard (2nd). Del Toro finished 24 seconds behind Stage 6 (Pau to Gavarnie-Gedre / Col du Tourmalet): Pogačar won solo, Vingegaard finished 2nd (losing 2:38), and Del Toro finished 3rd (at +2:57, finishing 19 seconds behind Vingegaard). Here, Jonas Vingegaard outclimbed Isaac del Toro by 19 seconds on the mountain stageawp13-11-2026
- your clinging to the past. Jonas was dropped by del toro many times last year and jonas never managed a climbing numers del toro did in dauphine last year -entire year. Trend is also evident theres no discussion your living in the past, its beent he same with jonas for many years now and only developing, meanwhile del toro is rising and developing greatly. This is all obvious stuff and im not even a del toro fan. No point discussing numbers or this i suspect you dont watch much now but rather think its 2022 still cause this aint hard.miguel13-11-2026
- We can go through metrics if you like, Del Toro, who I do admire and support, is not on the same level as Jonas just yet. You will see that in early 2027 if they have any crossover races. I do hope they both race the Giro. You are correct though, Jonas is getting older and will not be able to hand on much longer. I see 2027 as a good year for him. Obviously behind Tadej though.awp13-11-2026
- What wins? Are you LA operating under a pseudonym?mij13-11-2026
- My point is this - Tadej, Remco, Seixas are all the outliers. Many riders don’t hit their peak until 28. It’s way too early to write him off. And the pogi slo guy that hates him - he’s also immature. Ayuso needs time.mij13-11-2026
- Then you need to use ur eyes or head if you have cause del toro already dropped jonas two times and beat him in tdf stages already this year.. Del toro climbed(dauphine) better numbers than jonas did all year too. So ur feelings and wishful thinking doesnt amtter del toro himself has already surpassed jonas infact just facts. Its also very evident for anyone objective that Jonas is declining alot, its just the truth and super obvious.miguel13-11-2026
- None of those victories stand, so there's that,wrsty13-11-2026
- No surprise there; it is British Sycling, yes, with an S
Rafionain-Glas12-11-2026 - I like Del Toro but he's not on the level of Jonas, by a large margin.awp12-11-2026
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