OPINION | 3 reasons why Juan Ayuso can beat Tadej Pogacar at the Kigali World Championships

The Kigali 2025 World Championships is gradually approaching its grand finale. The Rwandan edition of the worlds will culminate with the main course, the elite men's road race. There, Juan Ayuso will be the Spanish leader in Alejandro Valverde's team. But will he be able to aspire to the gold medal, and therefore defeat Tadej Pogacar?

At the moment, despite Pogacar's heavy defeat against Remco Evenepoel in the time-trial (he was doubled by the Belgian and fell 1 second short of the medals), the Slovenian is still the big favorite for victory. For the UAE Team Emirates XRG star, there is no other possible scenario than to revalidate his title as world road champion.

But there is no other than the gold medal for Juan Ayuso himself. This is how clear he made it in his first statements to the media in Kigali: "Yes I see myself in the rainbow, I would be lying if I said no, it is a dream. There are many factors, but if I were not convinced, I would not go. Here I do not sign the silver medal. With the team we have and representing Spain, we have to go for everything".

Is it possible to dream that the soon-to-be Lidl-Trek rider (the team he will join after leaving UAE at the end of 2025) can beat Tadej Pogacar? There are 3 strong reasons to believe so.

First of all, it is clear that Juan Ayuso is not Tadej Pogacar's main threat. The Slovenian will be thinking primarily of Remco Evenepoel whilst the likes of Richard Carapaz and Isaac del Toro loom as the most obvious threats. It may not be easy to control a race where so many have ambitions, the roads are hard to chase and even within Slovenia it's not clear what the tactics will be.

The current situation of Tadej Pogacar must also be taken into account. The Slovenian does not seem to be at the same level as last year, when he won the World Championships in Zurich with a historic attack with more than 100 kilometers to go that ultimately succeeded.

The UAE Team Emirates - XRG leader revealed after the GP de Montréal that he finished the Canadian classics of the World Tour with minor discomfort. Then, in the World Championships time-trial, it became clear that he hadn't landed in Kigali as he would have liked. He missed out on the medals by a second and left an image for history when he was even overtaken by Remco Evenepoel on the road, something unthinkable at the start of the day.

He may then amaze the world with one of his typical solo rides, but there is reason to believe that, given his form, the race will be tighter than expected. And there Juan Ayuso will have plenty of chances to fight for the gold, specially if it becomes very tactical.

Lastly, and perhaps the most important, is the one that has to do with Juan Ayuso's preparation for the World Championships. The Spaniard rode with UAE Team Emirates XRG in the Vuelta a España, but did not contest for the overall classification and took it easy on several days. He focused on himself, looking for his stage victories in the mountains to regain sensations, and thus arrive at the Kigali event saving a lot of energy.

In addition, Jay Vine made it very clear at the World Time Trial (where he was 2nd and, therefore, silver medalist) that the Vuelta a España is a great preparation for the world championships. Juan Ayuso is expected to take the start on Sunday at 100% of his capabilities...