"On the final section after the Paterberg, they'll have a force-five tailwind": Wind set to shake up the Tour of Flanders and make the race even harder to predict

The Tour of Flanders is fast approaching this Sunday, and while the cobbles and steep climbs always guarantee a spectacular edition, a new and chaotic complication has emerged: the wind. With strong gusts forecast from multiple directions, analysts and teams are bracing for a radically different tactical battle, where early attackers could be severely punished and a late tailwind could make a solo breakaway impossible to catch.

The peloton is already on high alert. On Thursday, Soudal Quick-Step published a warning on their team website, noting: “A lot of wind is forecast, especially headwind. That could change a lot.” Dutch cycling journalist and analyst Thijs Zonneveld echoed this sentiment on the In de Waaier podcast, highlighting exactly how the weather will impact the riders hoping to survive deep into the finale.

According to Zonneveld, the opening hours of the race, before the climbs even begin to take centre stage, will be a brutal war of attrition that will completely discourage early attacks from secondary favorites.

"The first hundred kilometres are straight into a headwind from the start," Zonneveld pointed out. That has direct consequences for anyone thinking of making an early move to anticipate the finale. "If, for example, Dylan van Baarle wants to go with a move to anticipate, this is not a fun year to do it. You're just going to ride yourself into the ground," he said. The headwind essentially punishes aggression early on and rewards patience, something that may suit some riders more than others.

As the race enters its decisive phase, the wind's influence becomes even more nuanced. "In the final circuits, there are really going to be moments when it splits," Zonneveld warned. "The wind is going to play a very big role."

On the flat sections, echelons are a real possibility, capable of splitting the race apart before a single climb has even been tackled. On the Oude Kwaremont, the wind direction is slightly against the riders at an angle, and that, according to Zonneveld, is not ideal for the race favourite, who would greatly prefer a tailwind to help maximize his devastating acceleration on the cobbles. "For Pogacar, it is best if the wind is behind him there," he noted.

Paradoxically, the final stretch after the Paterberg could actually play straight into Pogacar's hands if he has already made his move. "On the final section after the Paterberg, they'll have a force-five tailwind. If Pogacar rides away on the Oude Kwaremont, that is really unfavourable if you want to bring him back," Zonneveld concluded.

A strong tailwind behind an already flying Pogacar is about the worst scenario imaginable for anyone trying to chase. With Remco Evenepoel now on the start list, the chasers do have a potentially devastating weapon on the flat, as he is an exceptionally powerful ally who is perfectly built to close gaps on the flat, tailwind or not. However, getting to that point with enough riders and enough legs will be the challenge.