"Now he loses the sprint too and gives up two seconds. He is a bit less feisty" - Zonneveld thinks Vingegaard has tactic to beat Pogacar
Cycling
Analyst Thijs Zonneveld believes he has identified Jonas Vingegaard and Visma | Lease a Bike's tactic to beat Tadej Pogacar, and it involves less a feisty uphill sprint but rather a high mountains knockout blow.
The yellow jersey rivals are locked on the same time, but are now several minutes behind Torstein Traeen after both Visma and UAE Team Emirates - XRG seemingly agreed a stage 4 ceasefire, thus allowing the yellow jersey to go to the breakaway.
Vingegaard and Pogacar fireworks are sure to return on Thursday's stage 6, which will see the peloton take on the Pyrenees, including the Col du Tourmalet, Col d'Aspin and a finish ascent to Gavarnie-Gedre.
For Zonneveld, he tinks fans should hold back their assessments of the Vingegaard-Pogacar duel for now, noting his theory that Vingegaard and Visma's focus is more on longer climbing.
"At the moment you think: Pogacar is much better right now, but ultimately they are simply tied," Zonneveld said on the podcast In de Waaier.
Zonneveld's Vingegaard and Pogacar theory
Explaining his theory, he noted that in his effort to match Pogacar's explosive climbing, he sacrificed his ability on longer ascents. He feels that Vingegaard will target longer stages featuring a lot of climbing and high energy expenditure.
"My theory, therefore, is that Vingegaard was more explosive last year, but that he subsequently fell short precisely on his own terrain.
"If you put everything together, Pogacar is traditionally better on shorter climbs, and Vingegaard had the upper hand on longer ascents after a stage with a lot of kilojoules. We saw that in the Tours he won."
Does Vingegaard have a stronger climbing level in 2026?
Noting Vingegaard's Giro d'Italia preparation and lightweight appearance at La Grand Boucle, he sees Vingegaard losing small ground on high-pace explosive efforts as an indication that he packs a firm mountain punch.
Zonnevald said: "And if he also did a big block with longer climbs in the Giro... Then I can imagine that they chose to shift the focus. They also have to tackle it rigorously, because you have to try to win it somewhere."
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"They need to find a spot somewhere where they can hit Pogacar. Last year, he could keep up on those explosive climbs, but he still lost the sprint. Now he loses the sprint too and gives up two seconds. He is a bit less feisty than last year."
Nonetheless, that theory could be answered by the end of Thursday's stage. He concluded: "We have to wait until the sixth stage to see if this theory actually holds true."
Gavin QuinnCycling Journalist
Gavin Quinn is a cycling journalist and ultra-distance cyclist with a BA in Journalism from Dublin City University. Formerly the Press & Communications Officer for Cycling Ireland, Gavin has worked inside the national team at the World Championships and has reported for the Irish Mirror, Mirror UK, and The42.
His expertise is backed by elite-level access, having interviewed stars like Sam Bennett and Ben Healy, as well as immense personal endurance. In 2025, he completed a 12,000km solo cycle from Ireland to Vietnam, following a 4,600km tour across Europe. From the cobbles of Paris-Roubaix to the gradients of the Tourmalet, Gavin’s writing focuses on the "romance and brutality" of the sport. Having visited 50+ countries, he brings a global, cultural perspective to his coverage of the pro peloton for CyclingUpToDate.
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