"João Almeida has no choice – he has to go for it" – Jonas Vingegaard will be pushed to the limit on final summit finish of La Vuelta says compatriot

As the 2025 Vuelta a Espana heads into its decisive final mountain stage, former pro and Eurosport analyst Matti Breschel believes the gloves must come off – and that João Almeida has no option but to attack Jonas Vingegaard if he wants to overturn the GC deficit.

Saturday’s brutal Stage 20, set in the mountainous terrain just outside Madrid, promises fireworks – and Breschel expects nothing less than a head-to-head showdown between the two strongest climbers remaining in the race. “Almeida has no choice – he has to go for it,” said Breschel in his analysis for Eurosport. “He’s said himself he has nothing to lose, which means he’s got everything to gain. So he has to give it a go.”

The Portuguese star currently sits just 44 seconds behind the Danish former Tour de France champion in the overall standings. But while Vingegaard holds the slender advantage on paper, Breschel sees a moment of truth looming on the final summit finish.

“Then it becomes mano a mano. Those two are the strongest. They had a bit of an off day earlier in the week, but they’re still a level above the rest,” he continued. “If Almeida attacks, we’re looking at a real duel – and I’m not sure anyone else can follow.”

Stage 19, shaped by persistent crosswinds, proved relatively straightforward for the GC contenders, with the sprinters contesting the finale in a fast, tense dash to the line. Jasper Philipsen edged out Mads Pedersen in the sprint, while Vingegaard and Almeida emerged from the stage unscathed and untested.

“It was the calm before the storm,” said Breschel. “Vingegaard looked sharp – he got through the stage well and said afterwards he’s feeling good. He’s in a strong position, and he knows it.”

Despite the uneventful nature of the stage, Breschel was quick to note the fundamental contrast between Friday’s wind-threatened terrain and the savage gradients awaiting the peloton on Saturday. “I wouldn’t go as far as calling Stage 19 a rest day, but it was a completely different kind of challenge compared to what’s coming. Stage 20 is going to be full gas from the gun.”

Having raced and trained extensively in the region, Breschel knows the roads of Stage 20 well – and warns that the terrain will take no prisoners. “It’s going to be a seriously hard stage. The riders are heading through a classic area that always delivers tough racing before Madrid – relentless climbs, energy-sapping terrain, and no flat sections to recover on. From kilometre zero, it’s on.”

In addition to the GC fight, the stage offers opportunities for teams yet to win a stage – and Breschel predicts a frantic battle to get in the breakaway. “Every team that hasn’t taken a win yet will be desperate to get up the road. UAE might want someone in the early move. Then it’s up to Visma to control with what they’ve got left.”

And it’s not just the red jersey on the line. With podium positions, the white jersey, and top-10 spots still in play, Breschel sees the potential for a tactical, multi-layered battle. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a similar pattern to earlier in the race – a tactical chess match with riders marking each other, especially with the battle for third and the youth classification still wide open.”

The penultimate stage of the Vuelta is set to define the 2025 edition of the race. For Vingegaard, it’s a chance to assert his control on the race lead for one final time. For Almeida, it’s now or never.

Whether the Portuguese climber can crack the defending champion on the high slopes remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: he must try. “This is his chance,” previews Breschel in conclusion. “He has to attack. If he doesn’t, he won’t win the Vuelta. Simple as that.”

With tension mounting and the battle for red on a knife-edge, Stage 20 is shaping up to be a true spectacle – a summit showdown between two riders at the peak of their powers, with everything on the line.