"João Almeida has no choice – he has to go for it" – Jonas Vingegaard will be pushed to the limit on final summit finish of La Vuelta says compatriot
Cycling
As the 2025 Vuelta a Espana heads into its decisive final mountain stage, former pro and Eurosport analyst Matti Breschel believes the gloves must come off – and that João Almeida has no option but to attack Jonas Vingegaard if he wants to overturn the GC deficit.
Saturday’s brutal Stage 20, set in the mountainous terrain just outside Madrid, promises fireworks – and Breschel expects nothing less than a head-to-head showdown between the two strongest climbers remaining in the race. “Almeida has no choice – he has to go for it,” said Breschel in his analysis for Eurosport. “He’s said himself he has nothing to lose, which means he’s got everything to gain. So he has to give it a go.”
The Portuguese star currently sits just 44 seconds behind the Danish former Tour de France champion in the overall standings. But while Vingegaard holds the slender advantage on paper, Breschel sees a moment of truth looming on the final summit finish.
“Then it becomes mano a mano. Those two are the strongest. They had a bit of an off day earlier in the week, but they’re still a level above the rest,” he continued. “If Almeida attacks, we’re looking at a real duel – and I’m not sure anyone else can follow.”
The calm before the storm
Stage 19, shaped by persistent crosswinds, proved relatively straightforward for the GC contenders, with the sprinters contesting the finale in a fast, tense dash to the line. Jasper Philipsen edged out Mads Pedersen in the sprint, while Vingegaard and Almeida emerged from the stage unscathed and untested.
“It was the calm before the storm,” said Breschel. “Vingegaard looked sharp – he got through the stage well and said afterwards he’s feeling good. He’s in a strong position, and he knows it.”
Despite the uneventful nature of the stage, Breschel was quick to note the fundamental contrast between Friday’s wind-threatened terrain and the savage gradients awaiting the peloton on Saturday. “I wouldn’t go as far as calling Stage 19 a rest day, but it was a completely different kind of challenge compared to what’s coming. Stage 20 is going to be full gas from the gun.”
Stage 20: A war of attrition awaits
Having raced and trained extensively in the region, Breschel knows the roads of Stage 20 well – and warns that the terrain will take no prisoners. “It’s going to be a seriously hard stage. The riders are heading through a classic area that always delivers tough racing before Madrid – relentless climbs, energy-sapping terrain, and no flat sections to recover on. From kilometre zero, it’s on.”
In addition to the GC fight, the stage offers opportunities for teams yet to win a stage – and Breschel predicts a frantic battle to get in the breakaway. “Every team that hasn’t taken a win yet will be desperate to get up the road. UAE might want someone in the early move. Then it’s up to Visma to control with what they’ve got left.”
And it’s not just the red jersey on the line. With podium positions, the white jersey, and top-10 spots still in play, Breschel sees the potential for a tactical, multi-layered battle. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a similar pattern to earlier in the race – a tactical chess match with riders marking each other, especially with the battle for third and the youth classification still wide open.”
All roads lead to Madrid – but not before the fireworks
The penultimate stage of the Vuelta is set to define the 2025 edition of the race. For Vingegaard, it’s a chance to assert his control on the race lead for one final time. For Almeida, it’s now or never.
Whether the Portuguese climber can crack the defending champion on the high slopes remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: he must try. “This is his chance,” previews Breschel in conclusion. “He has to attack. If he doesn’t, he won’t win the Vuelta. Simple as that.”
With tension mounting and the battle for red on a knife-edge, Stage 20 is shaping up to be a true spectacle – a summit showdown between two riders at the peak of their powers, with everything on the line.
Kieran WoodDeputy Editor-in-Chief
Kieran Wood is a sports journalist based in Wales and has been active in journalism since 2022. He regularly contributes to DartsNews.com and CyclingUpToDate.com, where he covers professional cycling and darts. In cycling, his work includes liveblogs from major races, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, alongside race reports and analysis. He has also conducted interviews with professional riders.
His reporting spans the full racing calendar, from one-day classics to stage races, with a focus on accurate, real-time coverage and clear contextual analysis. For statistics, results, and historical context, he regularly uses resources such as ProCyclingStats. To support reporting on rider activity and training context where relevant, he also references Strava.
In his work, Kieran places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles as new, verified information becomes available.
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- I get the point totally. We live in the snowflake society where some riders forget they are getting paid to ride and get results. When they have a few issues they try to look outside of the real issue instead of themselves. It odd so many of the team are making no complaints and getting on with their job. If you do not like what you do find another job simples. Tough love as my mum would say.paultryan200207-11-2026
- many people advise him to grow slowly and rather do giro and/or vuelta instead of tdf. but i can totally understand that he is not satisfied with taking over once pogi declines, but instead beat him in his prime. so if he goes for tdf again, i‘m all for it. let‘s hope that pogi recovers soon!Ketterechts07-11-2026
- So gracious to offer something no-one would be prepared to pay for. The Giro is not the Tour and doesn’t command the same interest or attract the same “elite” (those willing to pay to be a part of something they consider has ego boosting potential). Roadside viewing will always largely remain free for everyone outside circuits. Introduction of a symbolic entrance to mountain climbs is worthy of exploration. Asking 1-2€ isn’t going to repulse real fans (most will spend 50-100€ on their outing that day all things included) but will prevent a portion of the total knobhead thrillseekers who will join in any large gathering as long as it’s free, just because they’re attracted to crowds, without which it it difficult for them to work up their anti-social behaviour.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- How is radio going to help when someone went over a cliff or bridge or off the roadside into a forest unnoticed and is laying there unconscious?Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- Yep, next we’ll be accusing F1 drivers of avoiding Le Mans.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- But on what is that opinion based? Are you holding him to a different standard than others? Are you saying he should do learn to like something he doesn’t Are you saying he hasn’t achieved enough Are you saying he pretends to be better than his results? It’s actually a really strange opinion to oust if you consider it objectively or rationally. Try applying it to others or yourself by asking if not EVERYONE should then be doing more? Nobody in athletics or swimming gets criticism for not expanding their repertoire when a rival or someone else does. In fact, most who move to another event get accused of running from their rival. Opinions are boring, the reasons behind them are what count.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- for a medical chief to throw things like is just bad. There are already radios which were banned for spectacle. allow radios. Gps trackers are not a complete solutionabstractengineer07-11-2026
- Yeah man...PogiSloFans07-11-2026
- any rider less than 25 whether they are really ready for the position of leadership of GT is probably not the case. I think Pogi himself suffered when he was defeated by Jonas in the TDF twice. But that would be the team's job to ensure support so that they can bounce back. It requires a team and time to get back up and win after getting knocked down.abstractengineer07-11-2026
- I'm very glad he got the big late Quickstep Vuelta win and I hope he has a few left for Euskaltel-Euskadi.flyer07-11-2026
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