We've also had Nairo Quintana take a breakthrough win in 2013 early in his career, Primoz Roglic (2018 and 2021), Daniel Martínez, in 2023 Jonas Vingegaard and
in 2025 João Almeida who dominated the race throughout its mountain stages.
Profile stage 3: Bassauri - Bassauri
Bassauri - Bassauri, 152.9 kilometers
Perhaps the easiest stage of the race, and the most likely to end in a sprint - although of course this would be between climbers and classics specialists. The first half of the day isn't overly difficult and the main climb ends with 32 kilometers to go, being 8 kilometers long at 5%.
There are then two explosive hilltops in the final kilometers, one ending with just over 7 kilometers to go which is 1.5 kilometers long at 6.9%; and the final one coincides with the finish line in Bassauri which is 1.2 kilometers long at 6%. It's a likely sprint, as the ascent becomes steeper towards the summit and the final 400 meters have a 9% gradient.
The Favourites
The stage on paper looks easier than the rest and maybe even for a sprint, but the close details reveal a different story, and this is a day for the GC men. Not exclusively, of course, the puncheurs and explosive riders carry significant chances, and luckily as someone like Tadej Pogacar is not here, there can actually be a split between the two categories and a potential winner from both - not just having the strongest of both worlds be one rider who would be unbeatable.
Nevertheless because the fight for positioning will be so important and the priority for the GC teams, I reckon these men will cover most of those out front.
Paul Seixas the best climber, but not exactly a sprinter if we're being honest so we do have space.
Isaac del Toro would on paper be close to unbeatable here but his form over the opening two days hasn't been good, and so we can't say this.
Primoz Roglic ordinarily would also be a perfect type for such a finish but over the past few years he hasn't been as explosive and so it's fair to raise questions.
A peak form Ion Izagirre can do wonders, whilst Mattias Skjelmose definitely showed today that he might be Seixas' only match out of the climbers in this finale. Cian Uijtdebroeks is also looking incredibly strong and can be considered.
Out of the puncheurs we have to look into the home rider Alex Aranburu who typically flies in this race; Christian Scaroni, Kévin Vauquelin who crashed today but will have more freedom; Andrea Bagioli, Natnael Tesfatsion, Julian Alaphilippe, Ben Healy, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Tobias Johannessen and depending on how he recovers from his crash, Axel Laurance.
Prediction Itzulia Basque Country 2026 stage 3:
*** Paul Seixas, Mattias Skjelmose
** Christian Scaroni, Isaac del Toro, Ion Izagirre
* Primoz Roglic, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Alex Aranburu, Kévin Vauquelin, Julian Alaphilippe, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Tobias Johannessen
Pick: Mattias Skjelmose
How: Reduced bunch sprint
Original: Rúben Silva