"It’s hard to imagine Van der Poel being able to hang with them" - Zonneveld on Netherlands and Belgium's tactics for Montréal
CyclingFriday, 25 September 2026 at 11:47
Are the Montréal World Championships too difficult for Mathieu van der Poel? Potentially, but that remains to be discovered this coming Sunday. Dutch pundit Thijs Zonneveld has discussed the potential tactics the Dutchman can deploy.
As a pure puncheur and classics specialist, van der Poel is perhaps - out of those with a realistic shot at winning the rainbow jersey - the one who fares less good with the long steady uphill efforts.
The GP de Montréal showcased how few non-climbers could be in the mix, with the 3600 meters of climbing mostly packed into 180 kilometers will inevitably feature a lot of non-explosive racing.
Mathieu van der Poel is just about the most explosive rider on the favourites list. But will he be able to us that to his advantage?
"Van der Poel needs to have the reserves to do that two or three times. But he has to save those efforts," Thijs Zonneveld argued on the In de Waaier podcast.
"He holds three aces and a hand of nines and tens, whereas someone like Paul Seixas has four kings, four queens, and three jacks. That changes the game entirely."
Van der Poel has two main options, so as to save his efforts: Race conservatively and wait for a final lap dash; or attack early and try to disrupt the plans of the teams looking to control the race.
Mathieu van der Poel won at the 2026 Tour de France and will aim for the same form on Sunday
"If he waits, he becomes heavily dependent on how the race unfolds. He could choose to race very defensively: doing nothing when Evenepoel attacks, doing nothing when Van Aert attacks. Just waiting, waiting... And hoping he can stick with Del Toro and Seixas during the final two laps."
"The question is whether that’s a wise move, because you have to be able to keep up. If you wait the whole race, and Seixas makes a move on the penultimate lap forcing you to play your last ace, then you stand no chance on the final lap".
Although the climb to Mount Royal - 1.6Km at 7% - is fully within range of van der Poel's best abilities, its repetition for 12 laps, as well as the rest of the punchy circuit, will prove to be very difficult. "Besides, the results of the GP Montréal showed only climbers at the front. It’s hard to imagine Van der Poel being able to hang with them."
Van der Poel on the offensive?
The second tactic is to attack early. As discussed on the CyclingUpToDate Podcast, van der Poel is likely to go on the attack early and try to lure a group of classics specialist to anticipate the strongest climbers in the field.
"The other possibility is that he thinks 'I can't keep up on the last two laps anyway, so I need to anticipate the move'. I have to race in a way that works on the intermediate sections too, breaking up the French and Italian squads early on. A chaotic race where you can break away on the descent, preventing Seixas and Del Toro from playing their game."
Van der Poel's form appears to be on point after two victories at the Tour de Luxembourg, both confirming his explosivity but also his current ability to perform long steady efforts. But for Zonneveld, the Dutch leader's choice is quite evident:
"When you hear him talk about the course, you pretty much know what he’s going to do. He’s going to race assertively, right? That’s certainly something he tries often. He’s at his best when he tries to dictate the race. He’s more likely to become an ally of Evenepoel and Van Aert than of Seixas and Del Toro".
Read also
How will Belgium race?
Within the big favourites lie the Belgian national team, with Remco Evenepoel and Wout Van Aert at the helm. They will look to use their numbers and potentially take their first win since Evenepoel conquered Wollongong in 2022.
"In the recent past, the Belgians raced foolishly against Pogacar. I hope Evenepoel and Van Aert realize that they are each other's greatest allies," Zonneveld stated. "They need each other, and they need roughly the same race scenario. Because Evenepoel is two kilos heavier and can't keep up on the climb".
Paul Seixas, but most importantly Isaac del Toro is, in the eyes of the Dutch pundit, the strongest on the field. But that may not mean much in a race that can get very tactical.
"In the most logical scenario, an old-school World Championship scenario, Del Toro is the favorite. Because you simply can't drop him on the climbs, and he’s the fastest in a sprint. But in a chaotic scenario, he’s the most vulnerable, because he has to react to everything. And that is absolutely draining".
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
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Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
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- How technical is it? The Glasgow circuit was so technical it made chasing very difficult to organise and was an obvious advantage for an early attacker.Jumpyjohn26-09-2026
- And he was angry once he was leading and had to change bikes due to a flat having no idea how close or far the chase behind was. Not sure there’s steady correlation between his level of anger and performance, it seems to work both ways.Jumpyjohn26-09-2026
- Anything is possible. Most people are making their predictions on very selective assessment, looking only at something like elevation gain, one particular race, current performance, body weight or simply rider preference. Every argument has a counter.argument. Those who looked to the results of Montréal forgot to consider many had ridden Quebec 2 days before. The riders most climbing are least suited and experienced or performing in Classics. The rider least suited (MVDP, even though theoretically Wout should climb even less well) is the one who has shown he can destroy prejudice, not only did he finish just behind Tadej and Bardet at LBL (4200m) beating Pidcock but he won in Glasgow, in front of Tadej and Wout, easily, despite a crash and that had 3600m of elevation gain over a similar distance. But as you say, even MVDP has been caught out not knowing there were still riders ahead of him when sprinting for the line.Jumpyjohn26-09-2026
- I’d guess he’s had more than one, ever, although being at an Ineos in decline about 3 years I guess you can seriously ask that question. However, VAM (assuming it’s not a typo for VMA) assessment is not obligatory and can be done just as well through p/w. And then if you read his exact statement, maybe he just did it at 1500 or 2000m in the past and has now done a session at 2500m?Jumpyjohn25-09-2026
- If the three races thathave taken place already give any insight, it is that the circuit does nit reward the climbers as well as the metres suggest. 97.3 m of climbing per lap is from the three short climbs on which no-one can really be out into major difficulties. That amounts to 1264 m of climbing. The remainder of around 2313 m isn't as hard as it sounds. Add in the technical side of things and the nature of the flatter parts and it can be difficult for the lightweight riders to show their watts per kilo. It's attritional, but that seems to benefit the heavier riders more somehow
Rafionain-Glas25-09-2026 - Looking forward to a great weekend of racing. Haven’t been following much lately but for all the talk there was of interest from other teams in Seixas, it seems awfully quiet. Did I miss something or was it all media buzz making attempts?Mistermaumau25-09-2026
- Always nice when someone making the effort wins. CongratulationsMistermaumau25-09-2026
- I think it looks far faster than it actually was, judging by the bike behind he may have been close to 100km/h but it was a dead straight wide stretch. I’ve seen whole convoys of cars passing at such speeds near downhills when the peloton is at full speed and they still have problems not being in riders’ ways. The speed of the caravan at the Tour sometimes when it passes just inches from spectators is far scarier. For me there are just too many vehicles in races.Mistermaumau25-09-2026
- I think the issue with van der Poel, Van Aert, Evenepoel, and Simmons may just be the weight. Some of them are likely too heavy for this amount of climbing - yes, Van Aert has won some major climbs, but that's in a GT setting with more than one race going on at a time and major climbers part of the GC race behind him. None of them has won in Montreal or Il Lombardia. Simmons was great at Il Lombardia not too long ago, but ran out of energy. They all have the goods to win, as do several others. It's just that del Toro and Seixas were the ones who got away 2 weeks ago, they climb, and del Toro sprints. I make no predications, I'm just really excited for what I hope is a great race!RidesHills25-09-2026
- The U23 race was a big warning for the elite race. It's different to Montreal where UAE can control. It is hard to read, and the riders in front has a big advantage simply by being in front. A repeat, with van der Poel, van Aert or God forbid Quinn Simmons, would not be surprising.Rafionain-Glas25-09-2026
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