"The circuit is just too difficult for him" - Is Mathieu van der Poel really capable of winning Montréal World Championships?
CyclingWednesday, 23 September 2026 at 10:37
The Montréal World Championships will be one that is best fit for the climbers, although some classics specialists might have the legs to feature in the fight for the win as well. Is Mathieu van der Poel one of the? Rúben Silva and Gavin Quinn have debated this question on the CyclingUpToDate Podcast.
"I look at Mathieu van der Poel's Dutch team and I see a team basically there to help him at least get to the circuit. And from there not an awful lot more if if the pace is incredibly high," Quinn believes.
Van der Poel will be one of the few men from the worlds' main teams who won't be sharing leadership duties. He will be joined by Daan Hoole, Bart Lemmen, Tim van Dijke, Bauke Mollema, Pascal Eenkhoorn, Menno Huising and Mathijs Paaschens.
The Dutch team will consist of several rouleurs who are likely to try and form part of the day's breakaway, whilst only Bart Lemmen is expected to survive deeper into the race as the attacks begin in the peloton. But van der Poel himself might be a rider looking to try and move from early on.
"I think if he's plotting a way to win, he's plotting like a super early attack, and he's hoping other riders come with him or he's hoping they join him later. Because I was astounded by his stage five performance in Luxembourg to be honest".
Van der Poel won the first and final stage of the recent Tour de Luxembourg, battling a field of a different level, but taking an astonishing victory on the final stage where he formed a solo breakaway with 175 kilometers to go and then held it all the way to the line.
Is the race simply too hard for van der Poel?
The former World Champion's form hence cannot be questioned. But whether the course will be too difficult for him in the end is a separate question. 273 kilometers long, 3600 meters of climbing, but all of those in the final 160 kilometers as the first 100 are flat.
The course features 12 laps of a circuit including the climb to Mount Royal (1.7Km at 7%), which doesn't rule out a heavier classics specialist like van der Poel, but means that several of these climbs (as well as the smaller ones mid-circuit) have to be tackled at a consistent pace, so as to not blow up too early.
The absence of Tadej Pogacar should mean a less difficult race which improves his chances, but just by how much is immeasurable.
"It's hard Van Der Poel. Is an incredible rider but there's too much steady climbing throughout the day that I don't feel like if he waits until the final one or two laps that he's gonna have the same explosivity," Rúben Silva argued.
An early attack is seen by him as a very likely scenario, but one that in the end should lead towards the same situation. "It might look great but it's gonna end up turning into a bit of a steady one, and it's hard to see van Der Poel win. I think that at the circuit is just too difficult for him".
Tactical luck a necessity for van der Poel to win
Perhaps the ideal scenario for the Dutchman, and the only one that could lead to his win, the duo agree on: Is the potential move of van der Poel and other puncheurs such as Ben Healy or Quinn Simmons, who would be able to roll over the whole course at high speed, but not face the Dutchman with a major head-to-head against the climbers who should be fresher towards the end of the race.
As Gavin Quinn put it: "He needs similar riders to be in there with him and get across to him, or him joining them and they need at least three or four of them with serious engines in order for that to happen".
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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