"I don’t see how Pogacar will beat this Van der Poel" - Patrick Lefevere on Milano-Sanremo's battle of the titans

Patrick Lefevere is no longer in charge of Soudal - Quick-Step or directly involved in the planning for Milano-Sanremo. However, the Belgian manager has supported many winners and contenders in the past, and has had discussions over decades on how to approach the race correctly. He has shared his insight as well as his point of view on the expected Tadej Pogacar-Mathieu van der Poel battle.

“The riders make the race, that’s a cliché as big as a house, but in Italy they don’t always believe that. Even without Pompeïana or Le Manie, only two riders can win today. It will be Mathieu van der Poel or Tadej Pogacar. Anyone else? I don’t see it happening," Lefevere said in his weekly Het Nieuwsblad.

Most agree that even in a race without large climbs and a flat finale, that there are other riders who have good chances of taking the win. Over the past few years the climbs have been ridden at record speeds and UAE Team Emirates - XRG's plans now include all-in attacks on the Cipressa. This makes it too hard for many riders.

But the gradients are not high and pure watts matter a lot. In Lefevere's mind, that changes the scale towards Mathieu van der Poel always. “Honestly, I don’t see how Pogacar will beat this Van der Poel. There are many factors working against him. In a race along the coast, headwind is not a small thing. Even Pogacar is not above that.”

“The Van der Poel I saw in Tirreno is, in my opinion, the strongest ever. Especially that second stage to Martinsicuro was out of the book. Van Aert reacts twice to an attack in the final kilometres, Van der Poel stays seated and wins because he dares to lose. A masterclass.”

The Alpecin-Premier Tech continued having perfect health and preparation towards the spring classics, Pogacar looked perfect at Strade Bianche as well; but on the opposite side both Wout Van Aert and Mads Pedersen have had to deal with injuries this winter.

Ultimately, positioning into the Cipressa will be extremely meaningful as it is a climb with little time to recover position before an expected attack from Pogacar. But it will be hard for UAE to manage it.

“UAE can replace the punchers evenly, but the approach to the Cipressa is a strange beast. I’ve heard dozens of hypotheses in the Quick-Step years. Ride left, ride right, stay in the middle... But that formula does not exist. It is a combination of feeling, legs and a bit of luck," Lefevere adds.

Although UAE attacked the race last year, he definitely didn't see the Emirati team's positioning as good. “Last year the positioning of UAE on the Cipressa was collectively wrong. With their current selection, with many real climbers, I wouldn’t dare say that won’t happen again.”

“In the best case, Pogacar can really set his team to work on the Cipressa. In the past I didn’t see that happen. But Van der Poel is used to solving a lot on his own," Lefevere argues. But it has to happen on the Cipressa for Pogacar, otherwise there will be no victory. "My prediction: if it still has to happen for Pogacar on the Poggio, it will no longer happen.”