Mathieu van der Poel and Remco Evenepoel riding together around Calpe, Spain. 🌈🤝🏼🇧🇪 🎥: Siebe Roesems
"I am not sure that he can win the Tour" - Johan Museeuw skeptical of Remco Evenepoel's chances of succeeding at the Tour de France
CyclingFriday, 01 December 2023 at 10:43
The Tour de France is in recent years been once again the absolute target of the absolute best stage-racers in the peloton. With Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar in control of the yellow jersey, Belgian legend Johan Museeuw does not believe that the chances of Remco Evenepoel winning the Tour de France are high.
"It will be very difficult. He is now very good at one-day races, which he wins in fantastic fashion, such as Liège-Bastogne-Liège and the Clásica San Sebastián. At the moment I am not sure that he can win the Tour, because I believe that riders who win the Tour are really special," Museuew said in the Geraint Thomas Cycling Club. "There are only three or four in the peloton and currently they are Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard."
Evenepoel has had a very successful season, however the Grand Tours had unexpected obstacles. The Giro d'Italia was his main goal, but it was ended prematurely by a Covid-19 infection which didn't allow him to test himself. At the Vuelta a España he suffered a bad day on stage 13 and from there onwards chased stage wins. It is unclear what his plans for 2024 are as he is set to make a Tour de France debut, but the unattractive - for him and Soudal-Quick-Step - route may see him having it as a secondary goal, following a return to the Giro d'Italia.
"Moreover, there are very few riders in the peloton who go to the Tour and say they have a ninety to 95 percent chance of winning. Evenepoel currently has a sixty percent chance of winning, so he has it in him somewhere," Museeuw argues with Thomas. The duo joked that his chances would be higher at INEOS Grenadiers but he does believe that would improve the time-trial World Champion's chances: "If he goes to another team he has a better chance, but that's another discussion for another podcast.”
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- Froome wishing to ride the Vuelta...he won't even be selected for the team!frieders320-12-2024
- Keep telling yourself that Remco but you not only have Tadeg to beat but Jonas!frieders320-12-2024
- Seems farfetched - I agree. Mas has beaten him once. Giro d'Emillia I think - 2022mobk20-12-2024
- Barring injuries, by the time Pogacar's dominance fads there will be lots of new young talent. Pogacar is about 1 1/2 years older than Remco. That's nothing.Sweep20-12-2024
- I actually don’t find that too impressive. In my later forties I did similar figures for a 3.5% gradient as a total nobody with no wind assistance. Am sure there’s margin for improvement there, especially looking at all the names on that list.Mistermaumau20-12-2024
- Jonas', was 6 years agospock12320-12-2024
- The race where he overnight suddenly turned nuclear after being packfodder at best for several years. His Sky days after that Vuelta and Pogačar’s last season shall remain the darkest post Lance stuff cycling has witnessed. Good riddance Froome.
UltimateOpportunist20-12-2024 - Finishing the Vuelta seems to be a reasonably attainable goal. Getting on the team to do that will be the more difficult challenge.
santiagobenites20-12-2024 - To be fair, he has now stated his fuel regime had been corrected and the results concur.Mistermaumau20-12-2024
- You can look at things mathematically sometimes to get a better understanding of performance distribution. To be an elite cyclist you may need a number of qualities, say 8 some of which are quite obvious (engine), some more debatable (body type). If you look at distribution you’ll get a whole bunch with 6 or 7 very elevated values but 1-2 not so perfect and occasionally someone will pop up with all 8 really well developed. However, statistically, for that to be a given the chances drop by about an order of magnitude each time so in general for each 2 at the top you’ll have 20 at the next level, 200 at tge 3rd, 2000, etc. I don’t see the actual distribution as so weird, we have a few too many right at the very top level but statistically it’s just because for the past 15-20 years there wasn’t really anyone clearly standing out, level 1 was bunched with level two.Mistermaumau20-12-2024