“Del Toro is far above Jorgenson right now” - UAE backed to outgun Visma in Pogacar-Vingegaard Tour de France battle

With just a few days to go before the start of the 2026 Tour de France, the great battle between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard has already begun. However, beyond the expected duel between the two dominant riders of the last decade, the real war could be decided by the teams around them.

The CiclismoAlDia podcast analysed the eight riders from UAE Team Emirates – XRG and Team Visma | Lease a Bike one by one, reaching an almost unanimous conclusion: UAE have the strongest, most versatile and best-prepared squad to conquer Paris.

The final score in their head-to-head comparison produced a clear 14-10 advantage for the Emirati team.

The first match-up left little room for doubt. All three participants on the programme chose Tadej Pogacar ahead of Jonas Vingegaard. This was not only because of the extraordinary form shown by the Slovenian throughout the season, but also because of the nature of the route.

As they explained on the podcast, the opening stages with explosive finishes and classics-style profiles clearly favour the UAE leader. “He is a much more complete cyclist and also arrives at the best moment of his career,” Juan Larra said during the video podcast discussion.

Another point highlighted was calendar management. While Pogacar arrives with fewer racing days and surrounded by a completely renewed squad compared to the Giro d’Italia, Visma will repeat several riders who rode the Corsa Rosa, including Sepp Kuss and Victor Campenaerts. For the analysts, that accumulated effort could take its toll as the race goes on.

One of the clearest points of agreement came when comparing Matteo Jorgenson with Isaac del Toro. The CiclismoAlDia panel consider the Mexican to be the best luxury domestique in the peloton right now.

Del Toro’s recent performances at the Criterium du Dauphine and the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes convinced the analysts, who even went as far as to say that the young UAE rider could fight for the final Tour podium. “Del Toro is far above Jorgenson right now,” they unanimously said during the discussion, pointing to the poor form of the American, who is not going through his best season.

There was even speculation over a hypothetical historic result for UAE, with Pogacar and Del Toro occupying two of the three places on the podium in Paris.

For the programme, the Mexican represents an absolute guarantee both as a domestique and in the high mountains, where he could make decisive differences.

It was not all praise for UAE. One of the few match-ups that went in favour of the Dutch team was the one between Sepp Kuss and Adam Yates.

Doubts over the Briton’s physical condition after his heavy crash at the Giro d’Italia clearly tilted the balance towards the American. The panellists highlighted that Kuss arrives after completing a solid Giro and after showing a notable level at the Andorra Classic.

They also underlined that the rider from Colorado remains one of the most reliable domestiques in Grand Tours and an essential piece for Vingegaard’s ambitions. “Adam Yates is an unknown and Kuss is showing a clearly superior level this year,” Javier Rampe noted.

If there were two names especially praised during the analysis, they were Tim Wellens and Nils Politt. Regarding the Belgian, the participants highlighted his enormous versatility. They consider Wellens to currently be one of Pogacar’s most trusted men, capable of working on flat terrain, in the medium mountains and even holding on during demanding climbs.

His duel with Victor Campenaerts generated divided opinions, although in the end the experience and versatility of the UAE rider carried more weight for some of the analysts.

The consensus around Nils Politt was even stronger. The German was defined as UAE’s equivalent of Campenaerts: an all-terrain domestique capable of controlling breakaways for kilometres and sustaining the peloton’s pace in any circumstance. “If any breakaway makes it, it will be because Politt wants to allow it,” Jorge Borreguero said, recalling the German’s collective work at last year’s Tour.

Beyond the individual match-ups, the podcast’s main conclusion was that UAE have a more balanced and versatile line-up.

While Visma are backing more rouleur-style riders and time-trial specialists, such as Edoardo Affini and Campenaerts, the Emirati squad offers, according to the analysts, more solutions on any type of terrain. “UAE have riders who are more mixed and well-balanced, while Visma bring more defined profiles,” Rampe highlighted during the podcast.

In addition, the presence of names such as Del Toro, Wellens, Politt, McNulty and Florian Vermeersch gives Pogacar tactical alternatives for virtually any race scenario.

The big unknown remains Adam Yates, but even with the doubts surrounding the Briton, the consensus on CiclismoAlDia is clear: Pogacar not only arrives as the overwhelming favourite for the yellow jersey, but also accompanied by the strongest squad at the Tour de France.

And in an edition that promises to be decided by small details, having the best team could prove decisive.