"Jonas Vingegaard is not capable of what Tadej Pogacar is capable of" - Tejay van Garderen dismisses Tour rivalry despite Giro dominance

Jonas Vingegaard arrives at the 2026 Tour de France with the Giro d’Italia title, five stage wins in Italy and his strongest pre-July build-up since his last yellow jersey. The Team Visma | Lease a Bike leader has removed most of the questions that followed him into last year’s race.

Tadej Pogacar still starts from a different place. Four Tour de France titles, a dominant Tour de Suisse and a classics campaign featuring Milano-Sanremo, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix have left Tejay van Garderen in no doubt over the balance of power before Barcelona.

On NBC Sports Cycling’s Beyond the Podium podcast, Van Garderen was asked by Brent Bookwalter whether the Pogacar-Vingegaard battle still deserves to be called a true rivalry. Pogacar has won four Tours to Vingegaard’s two, while the Dane returns to July as Giro winner and the one rider with a proven record of beating him over three weeks.

Van Garderen’s answer was immediate. “No,” he said. “I saw enough last year.”

Van Garderen has changed his view more than once during the Pogacar-Vingegaard era. After Pogacar’s first two Tour wins, he expected the Slovenian to dominate the race for years. Vingegaard’s back-to-back victories then shifted the debate, with the Dane looking like the stronger pure Grand Tour rider even as Pogacar remained the more complete cyclist.

The 2025 Tour closed that argument for Van Garderen. “I always was giving Jonas the benefit of the doubt,” Van Garderen explained. “But then after last year, it settled all the questions for me. I was like, ‘No, Tadej is just the best cyclist we’ve ever seen.’”

Vingegaard has since answered with a near-perfect 2026 campaign. Van Garderen watched him at close range at the Volta a Catalunya and again at the Giro d’Italia, where the Dane produced one of the most dominant Grand Tour performances of his career. “I know that Jonas has had a flawless season,” Van Garderen said. “I was at Volta a Catalunya, saw him first-hand. I was at the Giro, saw him first-hand. And he’s been amazing.”

Pogacar’s own final Tour build-up came at the Tour de Suisse, where Van Garderen was working from the race convoy as Richard Carapaz finished second overall behind the UAE Team Emirates – XRG leader. Pogacar won the race with three stage victories, including the time trial and a mountain stage. “I will say, I was also at the Tour de Suisse this year,” Van Garderen continued. “I was racing first car there, and I was helping Richard Carapaz to a second place. And I’ve got to say, I’ve never seen anything like this at a bike race.”

“Jonas is not capable of what Tadej Pogacar is capable of,” he added.

Vingegaard’s two Tour victories over Pogacar were built around repeated mountain pressure, long climbs and Team Visma | Lease a Bike turning the race into a slow physical squeeze. Van Garderen does not see the 2026 route giving him enough of that early enough. “The course this year in the Tour, it’s not really lent towards Jonas’s strengths,” he said. “There’s not just back-to-back-to-back heavy mountain stages. It is very back-loaded in that third week with those Alpe d’Huez stages.”

“I know stage 14 is going to be suited to him, but I want to see two or three of those kind of stages in a row somewhere mid-Tour,” Van Garderen added.

Before the final Alpine weekend, Pogacar has the kind of terrain that has already defined large parts of his 2026 season. He won Milano-Sanremo, added the Tour of Flanders, finished second at Paris-Roubaix and then carried that level into the Tour de Suisse.

“The Tour is very, very favourable to Tadej Pogacar, who’s good at all that sort of classic terrain,” said Van Garderen. “You saw what he did in Milano-Sanremo this year, Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix. He’s just going to mop up minutes on Jonas in all of these sort of hectic stages, and I just don’t see how Jonas is going to make that up.”

Bookwalter also picked Pogacar for yellow, while stressing that Vingegaard’s form gives the race the contest it needs. A Giro-winning Vingegaard is a very different proposition from the rider who arrived at the Tour compromised in 2025, but Bookwalter still does not see him matching Pogacar in July.

“I think we’re grateful that Jonas is coming into the Tour fit,” Bookwalter said. “He’s healthy. He’s in great form. He’s got the Giro d’Italia win, but I don’t see it being a match for Tadej Pogacar.”

Pogacar is chasing a fifth Tour de France title, which would move him alongside Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Miguel Indurain. Bookwalter also pointed to the Slovenian’s preparation, with Pogacar reaching July after a slightly reduced pre-Tour programme compared to 2025. “I also like the preparation of Tadej Pogacar this year in that his pre-Tour programme has been scaled back a little bit,” Bookwalter said. “There’s just nothing to say against this guy. You can’t talk bad about his team, his preparation, his hunger, his motivation.”

“Tadej is poised,” he added. “He’s my pick for his fifth Tour de France. But Jonas is going to keep it interesting.”

Vingegaard has the Giro, his health and two previous Tour wins against Pogacar. Van Garderen’s concern is the road between Barcelona and the Alps, where Pogacar’s classics strength, Tour de Suisse form and UAE Team Emirates – XRG support could start shaping the yellow jersey battle before Vingegaard reaches his preferred terrain.