CyclingUpToDate Podcast: "If Pogacar wanted to win the points classification, he probably would have" - But are the sprinters uncontested this year at the Tour de France?
CyclingSaturday, 04 July 2026 at 16:00
The heat will be falling on the shoulders of the Tour de France peloton over the coming weeks, as Europe suffers through consecutive heat waves. On episode 2 of the CyclingUpToDate Podcast, Rúben Silva and Kieran Wood have discussed its potential effects on the race; as well as discussing the points classification and whether or not the recent points system changes were implemented due to Tadej Pogacar.
"When they go to France, it's supposed to be a major European heat wave that could be really actually quite dangerous," Wood argued in a conversation ahead of the race. Silva believes it shouldn't have drastic effects on the results sheet: The heat wave has been ongoing for already one, two, three weeks... And I feel like at this point, the riders are already used to it. And heat training is also part of how they prepare for the races".
"So I think it can add another variable that maybe is not always super present and can make the race more exciting, more unpredictable. But if it were the rain or the cold, I think it would have a lot more effect than the serious heat that they'll face".
Wood agreed. But during the Tour, the cold weather is rarely a variable, unlike the Giro d'Italia. "When it's wet, you also have the illnesses that then take over the peloton afterwards, don't you? You don't necessarily get that from the heat".
However if the heat wave continues into the Tour's decisive stages - although stage 6 could already be extremely important - would this have the potential to change the race? "Historically, Pogacar had a reputation that he wasn't as good in the hot weather. I think he's kind of put out to bed recently, but this is going to be another level again".
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But it is in the long, flat and exposed stages that the field may suffer more with the heat. Race cancelations, neutralizations or cuts are not to be unexpected under such severe conditions, with temperatures reaching close to 40 degrees in many regions of France currently - and more often going over.
On these days, the sprinters will have the most opportunities, and will headline a points classification battle that has changed looks. The bunch sprints now attribute 70 points instead of 50, whilst the positioning and points system of the intermediate sprints has also been moved around so as to favour those who thrive on the flat days.
In terms of favourites there are several contenders, but some stand out: "I have a gut feeling that Jasper Philipsen is going to win it," Silva claimed.
"I think the competition is very hard. I think Merlier and Olaf Kooij are going to be very good, they're going to be at their best. I think Mads Pedersen is going to chase breakaways, but the change in the point system, there's more points in the flat bunch sprints now, is not going to be good for him. It's going to favor the other guys, and I think that change is also going to put Pogacar out of it".
"Philipsen his form was so good at the Belgium Tour. He won the GC despite being a sprinter, and [Mathieu] van der Poel is going to be leading him out. Alpecin bring in their team as usual, packed with rouleurs and classics riders".
Alpecin - Premier Tech will focus on the jersey but they are not isolated. Tim Merlier and the returning Olav Kooij can be headaches in the bunch sprints, whilst this Thursday afternoon Biniam Girmay also talked with a lot of confidence, enjoying the heat and having returned to a very strong level - with a team fully backing him up as well in the fight for the green jersey.
"I feel like Philipsen would have won last year if he hadn't crashed out, and I have this gut feeling that it's him this year". Wood also believes the Belgian could be the one to take it: "I totally agree. I think the key part of that is van der Poel, because even though he's not a specialist lead out, he is so good at dive-bombing into that last corner to get the right line and things like that. He's arguably the best lead out man in the world without really being a lead out man".
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Is Tadej Pogacar a contender for the green jersey?
Last year, it was not a large margin separating the Slovenian from Jonathan Milan, with only 78 point separating the two. But these had a caveat: "I recall watching last year's race and if Pogacar wanted to win the points classification, he probably would have because if he had just followed the sprinters in the intermediate sprints and then, not sprint, just follow them and then take it slow," Silva argued.
"Gather a few points every now and then, he would have gathered a lot of points. There were stages which he let the breakaway go and even a couple examples like the Thymen Arensman win at La Plagne where I feel like Pogacar was fully in control and just let him go. There were so many opportunities to get more points that he didn't take, so if he took it seriously, I think he could win. But that's clearly not what the UAE are gunning for and they don't want him to do it".
However, have the rules been changed because of the Slovenian? The last-minute decision has caused quite a lot of debate regarding the situation, with the green jersey often being termed the 'sprinters' jersey'. Silva certainly believes so. "You used to have in the Team Sky years... You had the rule changes, you know: Put less riders in the team, you know forbid the power meters, that was proposed at one point..."
"Those were directly coming because fans all around were like 'we're tired of the Team Sky domination'. They were looking to make the race more attractive and I feel like in a smaller scale, this is a similar response to the dominance of one entity, which in this case is just one rider".
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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leedorney04-07-2026 - Just a thought, but with Ben O'Connor leaving Jayco and the team seeking increased investment from the UAE, he may be a standout leader with complete team focus and support. It would see Jayco return to the days of the Yates boys.whit2pet04-07-2026
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