ANALYSIS | Tadej Pogacar’s top 5 rivals to win the 2026 Liège–Bastogne–Liège

This Sunday brings the final monument of spring, and the penultimate of the season: Liège–Bastogne–Liège 2026. Several of the peloton’s leading stars are primed for the Ardennes’ grand finale. One shines brighter than the rest. Tadej Pogacar returns in search of a fourth title at La Doyenne (after 2021, 2024, and 2025).

After coming within a whisker of victory at a Paris–Roubaix won by Wout van Aert, Pogacar lost the chance to sweep all five monuments in a single season. Even so, his 2026 remains historic, and the UAE Team Emirates XRG leader starts as the top favourite to claim what would be the 13th monument of his pro career if he is to win.

It will not be easy, even for the double world champion. Chief among his rivals are Remco Evenepoel and Paul Seixas, alongside standout names such as Mattias Skjelmose, Lenny Martínez, Tobias Johannessen, Kevin Vauquelin, Giulio Ciccone, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Mauro Schmid...

Nor should we overlook seasoned hounds still chasing big results like Julian Alaphilippe, Diego Ulissi, Ion Izagirre or Pello Bilbao. But among them all, who are Tadej Pogacar’s five main rivals to win Liège–Bastogne–Liège 2026?

The first major adversary Pogacar must watch closely is, of course, Remco Evenepoel. The Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe star is having an outstanding year, particularly in one-day races. No rider has more wins so far than the Belgian, who also knows how to win Liège–Bastogne–Liège more than once (he did so in 2022 and 2023).

He arrives at La Doyenne in perfect form. Evenepoel lined up at the recent Amstel Gold Race, where he triumphed with a textbook reading of the race. Earlier he was third on debut at the Tour of Flanders, up against Tadej Pogacar and on terrain more suited to the Slovenian. This could be the year he beats his rival in a monument.

Right behind Evenepoel stands the sensation of the moment. At 19, Paul Seixas is already a major star in the peloton. In France they even dream of him duelling this year with Pogacar in the race of races: the Tour de France 2026. You can’t blame them, given the level he is showing, one few riders ever reach in an entire career.

Expectations for Liège are huge. This is the first time Seixas and Pogacar will face each other head-to-head as joint favourites. They have met before, of course, in races won by the Slovenian such as the 2025 European Championships (Paul Seixas 3rd), Il Lombardia 2025 (Paul Seixas 7th) and Strade Bianche 2026 (Paul Seixas 2nd). Will the balance tip towards the Frenchman this time?

Among Pogacar’s chief threats is Tom Pidcock, sharpening his form at the Tour of the Alps. The Briton still chases his first monument, and after moving past his Volta a Catalunya crash, this feels like his best shot of the year remaining to conquer a monument - as long as his form improves well over the coming days in Italy.

One key reason Pidcock ranks third here is his latest Milano–Sanremo. In La Primavera he was the only rider to withstand every Pogacar attack on the Cipressa and the Poggio. In fact, he missed denying the Slovenian a first Sanremo by mere millimetres. He’ll go again at Liège, a race that suits him well, better than Sanremo on paper.

Next comes one of Pogacar’s 2025 Ardennes nemeses. Mattias Skjelmose beat both the Slovenian and Remco Evenepoel at Amstel Gold Race. Sadly, a crash at La Flèche Wallonne kept him from starting last year’s Liège.

In 2026 he has re-found his best legs at this point in the season. He couldn’t defend his Amstel title, but he was second behind Evenepoel, who outsprinted him yet could not drop him beforehand.

Finally, a personal pick: Tobias Johannessen, who is also in sparkling form. Since his strong Tour de France 2025 he has grown markedly to become Uno-X Mobility’s reference, even in classics of this calibre.

Johannessen arrives from the overall podium at Itzulia 2026, plus 2nd at Milano–Torino, 4th overall at Tirreno–Adriatico and 9th at the UAE Tour early in the year. Liège–Bastogne–Liège 2026 looks like his big moment, and alongside Evenepoel, Seixas, Pidcock and Skjelmose he will be one of Pogacar’s five major rivals.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the five riders named are the only ones capable of springing a surprise against Tadej Pogacar. Watch for outsiders such as Lenny Martínez, Kevin Vauquelin, Giulio Ciccone (2nd last year) or Cian Uijtdebroeks. One thing is certain: in a monument, anything can happen from start to finish. A historic Liège–Bastogne–Liège is coming.