"His goal isn't to beat Van der Poel": Analysts doubt Wout Van Aert will challenge for the cyclocross throne

The long-awaited duel of Wout Van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel is less than 24 hours away. And while the latter of the two superstars has already won a World Cup round last weekend, proving a high level, Van Aert is yet to get himself stuck in the racing. That's also why concerned voices question whether he can break out from Van der Poel's shadow and reclaim his former cyclocross throne.

"How I feel now (end of November, ed.) is completely incomparable to last year," Van Aert sent a promising message through a Visma | Lease a Bike podcast. "My fitness certainly wasn't as good then as it is now. At the end of November, I was still recovering after my crash in the Vuelta and was slowly starting up training again."

It's therefore safe to assume the Belgian is on the right track to be a worthy opponent for Van der Poel, but will it be enough to take on the seven-time world champion?

"It's very difficult to say anything about Van Aert's form," claims former world champion Niels Albert in Sporza Daily podcast. "Riding through the woods with Daan Soete isn't the same as beating Van der Poel. He'll have to be in good shape if he wants to keep up with him."

But Albert doesn't want to sound all pessimistic about Van Aert's possibilities in 2025/26 winter, although his limited calendar gives off the feeling that the Belgian might not be fully focused on this cyclocross winter. Regardless, his level might be all the better with fewer target races in mind.

"If we just look at him, I think Van Aert is a bit sharper than last year," adds Paul Herygers. "Whether that translates into a winning formula is another matter. It's certainly not essential that he beats Van der Poel right away. We have to give him the chance to settle in."

Van Aert and Van der Poel will face each other a total of five times. "These five duels will determine whether Van Aert rides the World Championship," says Albert. "If he feels he can beat Van der Poel there, it would be crazy to pass up a world title." The World Championship will be held in Hulst on February 1st. Whether Van Aert changes his mind like last winter and pulls up to the event is yet to be seen.

That's also the main reason Herygers remains cautious about whether we will indeed see any "duels", considering the Belgians increased focus on road cycling in recent years. "Van Aert has shifted his goals. He's focusing even more on the road and sees cyclocross as preparation. His goal isn't to beat Van der Poel."

Finally, both analysts share their predictions for the cyclocross in Antwerp: "I see Van der Poel winning," says Albert. "He has the advantage of having ridden cyclocross before. That will give him confidence."

Herygers also senses the advantage will be on Van der Poel's side. "You should really tie them together in that first lap, to keep them together. Because I'm afraid one will lose sight of the other."