The 2024 Tour de France is just around the corner and with an intimidating route including gravel, we'll be on the edge of our seats from day 1 in Tuscany until the final time trial in Nice. The general narrative goes that the race will be decided between four big favourites; Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel. How does the 2014 Tour winner Vincenzo Nibali view their chances?
Nibali puts Pogacar and Vingegaard forward as the two top favorites in an interview for La Gazzetta dello Sport. "The way Pogacar managed to dominate the Giro d'Italia is impressive. At no point does he lose control. I have never seen him so motivated and sharp. At the Tour, which is a big circus, there will be even more pressure on his shoulders. But I don't think it will affect him much."
Pogacar put in a stellar performance at the Giro, however his bilance against Vingegaard at the Tour doesn't speak in the Slovenian's favor. Now, Vingegaard had diametrically different preparation to Pogacar, but according to Nibali, the Dane still has a chance: "Due to his crash in April it is a guess as to his level. But if he participates in the Tour, it is because he has achieved good values in training. He should be Pogacar's biggest rival."
And what does the former Tour winner expect from the two other favorites, Roglic and Evenepoel? "Remco may have won the Vuelta in 2022, but he still has to grow. He still needs to mature, especially in Grand Tours. He's not consistent enough yet. In Grand Tours you have to be on your toes every stage. You can't afford a bad day. I also lower Primoz to a level. He won the Giro in 2023, but the decision only came in the penultimate stage. Pogacar dominated this year from start to finish."
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