“This is bad news for Remco Evenepoel” - Jan Bakelants warns Paul Seixas’ Tour de France debut makes podium battle “fiercer than ever”

The battle for the final spots on the Tour de France podium already looked brutally competitive heading towards July, particularly with Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard having locked out the top two positions between them across the last five editions of the race. Now, according to Jan Bakelants, the arrival of Paul Seixas may have made that fight for third place even harder for riders like Remco Evenepoel, Florian Lipowitz and Juan Ayuso.

The 19-year-old Frenchman confirmed on Monday that he will make his Tour debut this summer after one of the most explosive breakthrough campaigns seen in recent years. Victories at La Fleche Wallonne and Itzulia Basque Country, where he also won three stages, have already transformed him from highly rated prospect into one of the sport’s most discussed riders.

Then came Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Seixas was the only rider capable of following Pogacar on La Redoute before eventually finishing second behind the world champion. For Bakelants, that performance changed everything.

“After Liège-Bastogne-Liège, I became completely convinced,” he said in his analysis for HLN. “There he proved he has the engine to finish the Tour properly. I know Liège is one day and the Tour is three weeks, but I’ve seen enough. That performance on La Redoute, where he was the only rider able to follow Pogacar, was so impressive that I no longer have any doubts: Seixas is a freak of nature.”

Bakelants’ strongest warning was reserved for the riders expected to battle behind Pogacar and Vingegaard in the general classification. “I fear this is bad news for Remco Evenepoel. Remco is directly threatened,” he said. “The same applies to riders like Florian Lipowitz and Juan Ayuso. Their chances of third place suddenly become much smaller. They will really have to bring out the best in themselves because the fight for the podium is becoming fiercer than ever.”

That assessment lands at an interesting point in the season. Evenepoel has already taken major victories in 2026, including the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and Amstel Gold Race, but his buildup towards the Tour has also raised questions. Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe have opted against another pre-Tour race block, instead sending the Belgian into a long training period designed to ensure he arrives fresh in July.

Lipowitz meanwhile has emerged as one of the peloton’s most consistent stage racers this season. The German finished second overall behind Seixas at Itzulia Basque Country before later taking second at the Tour de Romandie behind Pogacar, strengthening his credentials as a genuine podium contender.

Ayuso’s campaign has been less straightforward. The Spaniard opened his year with victory at the Volta ao Algarve, but crashes and illness disrupted much of his spring and forced him out of the Ardennes Classics entirely.

Into that already crowded picture now steps Seixas, a rider Bakelants believes could immediately outperform expectations. “I’m not going to lie: I rate the chances of overachievement highly,” he explained. “A scenario where Seixas really brings out the absolute best in himself. I’m not talking about winning, but about fighting in the mountains all the way to the finish.”

The idea of a 19-year-old riding the Tour would normally be considered reckless, particularly as a first Grand Tour appearance. Bakelants himself openly acknowledged that Seixas is operating outside the usual development path.

“Yes, I’m happy Seixas is riding the Tour. Nobody knows what it’s going to bring, but his participation will definitely add extra colour,” he said. “Normally you don’t do this. A 19-year-old does not ride the Tour, especially not as their first Grand Tour. Riders his age are racing the Tour de l’Avenir this summer. Not Seixas. This guy is a sensation, he turns all logic upside down. In his case, it would actually be strange if he didn’t ride the Tour.”

Even so, Bakelants stopped short of placing the Frenchman among the outright favourites and admitted there are still unknowns around how Seixas will respond to three weeks of high mountains against the strongest riders in the world. “I still keep a small reservation because Seixas has never raced against the absolute top riders in the high mountains,” he admitted. “But did you see what he did to Lipowitz at Itzulia Basque Country?”

Whether Seixas can truly sustain that level across three weeks against the strongest climbers in the world remains one of the biggest unknowns heading towards the Tour.

But after a spring that has already seen him challenge Pogacar, dominate major races and rapidly force his way into the podium conversation, few riders in the peloton are treating the French teenager like a normal Tour debutant anymore.