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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 16 - Final chance for the sprinters but crosswinds are another challenge for Tadej Pogacar
CyclingTuesday, 16 July 2024 at 10:03
The Tour de France has been quite difficult so far and the last true opportunity for the sprinters comes on stage 16. We preview the day in which the peloton leaves the Pyrenees and starts heading east back towards the Alps.
The third week begins with a sprint stage; perhaps the only one of the final week. This is a stage where the peloton moves east from the Pyrenees towards the Alps and finishes in the city of Nîmes.
Stage 16: Gruissan - Nîmes, 187 kilometers
All-in-all a calm day, unless the wind is present which is very possible. but profile wise it's a stage with a relatively easy start and only one small ascent to take into consideration throughout the day. The sprinters will be happy - but the pressure and risks will be through the roof as this is the final opportunity for a regular bunch sprint in the whole Tour! (No Champs-Elysées this year)
It's all about the final sprint, and it's not a technical one. The riders will not go deep into the city but finish in it's outskirts. The final corner comes with 2.5 kilometers to go and then it is a straight line into the finish. But take into consideration that the peloton will have three small roundabouts to tackle in the final two kilometers and the last of which comes with only... 450 meters to go. So positioning is key into this spot.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2024 stage 16
The stage will not be easy at all. Likely a few sprinters won't make it. It will be very hot and very windy on the day. It'll come from the northwest which means that throughout the day there will be crosswinds and also on exposed roads. The first 85 kilometers specially will be quite threatening. Uphill, there are no signs that Tadej Pogacar can be beaten and so I very much expect Visma to give it another go in trying to surprise and take time back urgently. If the sprinters reach the finish, they will have a headwind finish.
The Favourites
Jasper Philipsen - Winner of two sprints, Alpecin have pretty much nothing they can do on this stage other than to work for Philipsen and hope for a third one. The headwind sprint favours him a lot, and I do believe the Alpecin riders are on rising form and that in a regular sprint he would be the big favourite to take the win.
Wout van Aert - Visma will be in the front that is certain. Van Aert is not in his best form, but to sprint you don't necessarily need that. He's come close to winning in sprints and if the race splits here it's likely that he will be in any front group. The more sprinters are dropped the better for him, and if the race is attacked from afar he may stand a chance even if he does some turns working for Jonas Vingegaard. Christophe Laporte, in great form, can sprint for himself, leadout or even attack the finale too.
Biniam Girmay - I dare to say the green jersey is already in the bag. Girmay is not the best pure sprinter but has raced so well throughout the whole Tour. With echelons on this stage, even without the best team, he would likely do good. In a bunch sprint he can certainly win a fourth stage.
After surviving the brutal mountain stage, the sprinters will be happy to take on the rest day. This stage could be the last of a few riders' Tour. Classics riders such as Arnaud De Lie, Marijn van den Berg and the in-form Pascal Ackermann could do very well if the crosswinds damage the peloton and could win from a reduced bunch sprint.
Mark Cavendish, Dylan Groenewegen, Fernando Gaviria, Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard, Ryan Gibbons and Anthony Turgis are other riders to consider for a strong result.
It's the last opportunity for a few riders who are true heavyweights and in the final week a breakaway can succeed even on a day like this. The remaining hilly stage may give reason for a few to save themselves, but riders like Stefan Bissegger and Jonas Abrahamsen may give it a go and be dangerous.
Prediction Tour de France 2024 stage 16:
*** Jasper Philipsen, Biniam Girmay, Wout van Aert
** Pascal Ackermann, Arnaud De Lie
* Mark Cavendish, Dylan Groenewegen, Marijn van den Berg, Alexander Kristoff, Fernando Gaviria, Sam Bennett, Ryan Gibbons
Pick: Wout van Aert
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