“Pogacar wins races through strength, not tactically – Van der Poel wins with cunning and tactics”: Vincenzo Nibali warns pure power won't be enough at Milano-Sanremo
Cycling
Raw strength is more than enough for Tadej Pogacar to dominate almost every race on the calendar. But according to Vincenzo Nibali, Milano-Sanremo plays by different rules. And if the world champion wants to finally add La Classicissima to his palmares, relying on brute force alone may not be enough, especially when measured against the racecraft of Mathieu van der Poel.
Speaking in conversation with Bici.Pro, Nibali drew a clear contrast between Pogacar’s overwhelming physical dominance and Van der Poel’s ability to win through timing, positioning and tactical restraint. “Any race he wins, he wins through strength, not tactically,” Nibali said of Pogacar. “He attacks because he is stronger. But who wins with cunning and tactics? Van der Poel.”
Why modern speed has changed everything
Nibali’s analysis begins with how much the peloton itself has evolved. In his view, today’s racing environment makes sustained attacking far harder than it was even a decade ago. “The peloton is now at an extremely high level, and then there are those who are simply out of scale,” he explained. “We used to race at an average of 42 kilometres per hour, today it is 47.”
That increase, Nibali stressed, is not down to training alone. “Five kilometres difference that is not only linked to preparation, but also to the racing package. The bike, the handlebars, the saddle, the seatpost, the wheels, the shoes, the socks, the shorts. Everything is more performant.”
The consequence is a peloton that no longer gives riders space to gamble. “To attack when the speed is 45 on average, you need to go at 50 kilometres per hour,” Nibali said. “The bar is raised and you have to hold that speed for longer, because the bunch does not let you go. That is why today it has become harder to go in the break and many riders give up.”
Pogacar’s strength and the price it demands
Within that context, Nibali sees Pogacar as a rare exception, a rider capable of forcing the race onto his terms. But even that ability has limits. “The exception is Pogacar, who has remarkable explosiveness, then settles into his own rhythm, sending everyone else into the red,” he said. “And when you are in the red, it takes a long time to recover.”
That effort, Nibali warned, carries a lasting cost. “Before you manage to clear the lactic acid, your legs go into crisis, and it can even take a week before you properly recover. When you race against Tadej, that is the main problem.”
Yet it is precisely because Pogacar can win so often through force that Nibali believes Milano-Sanremo presents a different challenge. “Perhaps his limit, if you can even call it a limit, is that he thinks he can manage everything with strength,” he said. “Look at Milano-Sanremo: he tries to drop everyone on the climb, without thinking about the possibility of winning it the way I did, on the descent.”
The Poggio moment that decided Milano-Sanremo 2025
Nibali was unequivocal when revisiting the decisive exchange between Pogacar and Van der Poel on the Poggio. “When Pogacar attacked and Van der Poel kept him in his sights, I immediately said that if Tadej was not careful, the other would counterattack and leave him there,” he recalled. “One second later that is exactly what happened, and he almost dropped him for real.”
What followed, in Nibali’s view, was the turning point of Milano-Sanremo. “At the top they looked at each other, but Tadej understood that the other still had enough to leave him behind, and he almost paid for it. In my opinion, he lost Milano-Sanremo at that exact moment.”
Van der Poel’s advantage did not end on the climb. “The other masterpiece came in the sprint,” Nibali added, “managed the way someone does who knows exactly how to handle those situations.”
Why tactics still matter at Milano-Sanremo
Despite its distance, Nibali remains adamant that Milano-Sanremo continues to reward riders who read the race rather than overpower it. “In Milano-Sanremo, the sprinter is always stronger,” he said. “Even if it is 300 kilometres, there is not that much difference.”
Only under very different conditions do the balance of power truly shift. “It is different if you have done 270 kilometres with 5,000 metres of climbing, because then the values level out and you might win the sprint.”
As for Pogacar, Nibali has little doubt the world champion will keep trying. “He has drawn up the plan of what he wants to try to win,” he said. “He will race in his own way again, trying to drop everyone.”
But Nibali’s warning is clear. At Milano-Sanremo, where timing, nerve and tactical clarity can outweigh raw watts, Pogacar may need more than just strength to finally claim the Monument that still eludes him.
Kieran WoodDeputy Editor-in-Chief
Kieran Wood is a sports journalist based in Wales and has been active in journalism since 2022. He regularly contributes to DartsNews.com and CyclingUpToDate.com, where he covers professional cycling and darts. In cycling, his work includes liveblogs from major races, including the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and La Vuelta a España, alongside race reports and analysis. He has also conducted interviews with professional riders.
His reporting spans the full racing calendar, from one-day classics to stage races, with a focus on accurate, real-time coverage and clear contextual analysis. For statistics, results, and historical context, he regularly uses resources such as ProCyclingStats. To support reporting on rider activity and training context where relevant, he also references Strava.
In his work, Kieran places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles as new, verified information becomes available.
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- many people advise him to grow slowly and rather do giro and/or vuelta instead of tdf. but i can totally understand that he is not satisfied with taking over once pogi declines, but instead beat him in his prime. so if he goes for tdf again, i‘m all for it. let‘s hope that pogi recovers soon!Ketterechts07-11-2026
- So gracious to offer something no-one would be prepared to pay for. The Giro is not the Tour and doesn’t command the same interest or attract the same “elite” (those willing to pay to be a part of something they consider has ego boosting potential). Roadside viewing will always largely remain free for everyone outside circuits. Introduction of a symbolic entrance to mountain climbs is worthy of exploration. Asking 1-2€ isn’t going to repulse real fans (most will spend 50-100€ on their outing that day all things included) but will prevent a portion of the total knobhead thrillseekers who will join in any large gathering as long as it’s free, just because they’re attracted to crowds, without which it it difficult for them to work up their anti-social behaviour.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- How is radio going to help when someone went over a cliff or bridge or off the roadside into a forest unnoticed and is laying there unconscious?Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- Yep, next we’ll be accusing F1 drivers of avoiding Le Mans.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- But on what is that opinion based? Are you holding him to a different standard than others? Are you saying he should do learn to like something he doesn’t Are you saying he hasn’t achieved enough Are you saying he pretends to be better than his results? It’s actually a really strange opinion to oust if you consider it objectively or rationally. Try applying it to others or yourself by asking if not EVERYONE should then be doing more? Nobody in athletics or swimming gets criticism for not expanding their repertoire when a rival or someone else does. In fact, most who move to another event get accused of running from their rival. Opinions are boring, the reasons behind them are what count.Jumpyjohn07-11-2026
- for a medical chief to throw things like is just bad. There are already radios which were banned for spectacle. allow radios. Gps trackers are not a complete solutionabstractengineer07-11-2026
- Yeah man...PogiSloFans07-11-2026
- any rider less than 25 whether they are really ready for the position of leadership of GT is probably not the case. I think Pogi himself suffered when he was defeated by Jonas in the TDF twice. But that would be the team's job to ensure support so that they can bounce back. It requires a team and time to get back up and win after getting knocked down.abstractengineer07-11-2026
- I'm very glad he got the big late Quickstep Vuelta win and I hope he has a few left for Euskaltel-Euskadi.flyer07-11-2026
- My memories of Ivan Basso aren't good but I liked his sister Elisa ok.flyer07-11-2026
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