“Pogacar isn’t there... he has no equal. Not even Evenepoel” - Paul Seixas heavy Flèche Wallonne favourite according to Jerome Pineau

The rise of Paul Seixas has already shifted expectations once this spring. Now it is beginning to reshape how the Ardennes are being viewed before he has even raced them.

After a dominant overall victory at Itzulia Basque Country, where he won three stages and controlled the race throughout, the 19-year-old arrives at La Flèche Wallonne for the first time with momentum that extends beyond results alone. For outspoken former team boss Jerome Pineau, that is already enough to make him the rider to beat.

Speaking on RMC, Pineau did not hold back in assessing the situation created by the absence of Tadej Pogacar.

“I see him winning because he sees himself winning. So when he goes there to win, and it seems he’s preparing specifically for this race and has it in mind… he wants to win because Pogacar isn’t there, so I don’t see why we wouldn’t be able to say that he’s going to win.”

That confidence is built on more than a single week. Seixas’ spring has followed a clear upward curve, from an early breakthrough at the Volta ao Algarve to a second place behind Pogacar at Strade Bianche, before his emphatic display in the Basque Country.

The nature of those performances has fed into a more aggressive assessment from Pineau, who believes the profile of La Flèche Wallonne suits Seixas perfectly. “After what he showed in the Basque Country, on this kind of race, he has no equal. Not even Evenepoel.”

It is a bold claim, particularly given the presence of Remco Evenepoel, but one that reflects the way Seixas’ level is currently being interpreted in France. The Mur de Huy demands explosiveness and timing rather than endurance alone, and Pineau sees those qualities as strengths rather than unknowns. “With the Mur de Huy, you need explosiveness and punch, and the race is only 200 kilometres. I know he has asked his team to prepare a plan to win the race.”

The absence of Pogacar changes the dynamic, but it does not remove the challenge. Instead, it creates a different kind of pressure.

Seixas is no longer arriving as an outsider. He is being framed as a rider expected to win, based on what he has already delivered rather than what he might achieve in the future.

That shift has been building inside his own team as well. At Decathlon CMA CGM Team, his Itzulia performance established him as the clear focal point, with experienced riders committing fully to his leadership. The next step is to translate that control from a stage race environment into a one-day finish that offers far less margin for error.

La Flèche Wallonne may be the immediate focus, but it is not the only test waiting.

At Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Seixas will line up against Pogacar once again, revisiting a rivalry that already produced a second place finish at Strade Bianche earlier this season. Pineau believes that gap may already have closed. “He is really looking forward to the race. He believes he has progressed a lot since Strade Bianche, to be able to go far with Pogacar and maybe even beat him.”

That progression is what defines the current moment. Seixas is not simply building towards future targets. He is accelerating through them.

The debate around Seixas has moved quickly from potential to expectation. Performances that would normally be seen as early career highlights are now being used to project immediate success in races he has never ridden.

That is what makes the current situation unusual. La Flèche Wallonne is not being framed as a learning experience. It is being treated as an opportunity to confirm what his recent results already suggest.

Whether that proves accurate will be decided on the slopes of the Mur de Huy. But the tone has already been set. Seixas is no longer being discussed as a future contender. He is being judged against the very best, and in some quarters, already placed above them.