"Keep on praying because it's not going to change" - Bob Roll & Christian Vande Velde analyse Jonas Vingegaard's chances of beating Tadej Pogacar at 2025 Tour de France
Cycling
The route and profiles of the 2025 Tour de France are here and we look set for another thrilling spectacle at next summer's edition of the Grand Tour. Can Tadej Pogacar go back to back? Will Jonas Vingegaard reclaim the Maillot Jaune? Or can Remco Evenepoel or another dark horse emerge from the chasing pack?
"The favourites should be the same as they were this year. Primoz Roglic, Remco Evenepoel, Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar," begins experienced US cycling expert Bob Roll in his analysis via NBC Sports Cycling's Beyond the Podium podcast. "Tadej's season went from fantastic, to unbelievable, to the greatest season ever and that's including Fausto Coppi, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault. It was just an astounding season. His ability was on such a different level, even in the Tour de France."
As such, Pogacar is likely to start the 2025 edition with the mental advantage. "What's going to be going through the mind of the big favourites in the off-season, especially Jonas Vingegaard? What do you think he's thinking about after seeing what Tadej did in 2024? What kind of improvements can he (Vingegaard ed.) realistically make between now and next year's Tour de France?" Roll asks co-host and former 4th on GC finisher at the French Grand Tour, Christian Vande Velde.
"If I was Jonas and I was in Visma, I think I'd just worry about myself and just do the best you possibly can to get the best numbers, be surrounded by the best riders and that's it," the American answers. "Because at this point in time, if you're just fretting and trying to beat Tadej by doing the things he's doing, you're always going to be behind."
"We've seen this for decades now. People try to emulate what the best teams in the world are doing and you'll never catch them, because you're always going to be 18 months / 24 months behind whatever they're doing," Vande Velde continues. "I have to say though, for Jonas this year, what we all saw was nothing short of remarkable. What he came back from and to able to due the numbers that he did in the Tour de France, it was incredible. So his mental perseverance is the best I've ever seen."
In trying to take on Pogacar though, Vingegaard has a very unenviable task. "You can't say enough about the guy! His thirst for wins is endless and I don't think this year is going to be any different," Vande Velde analyses. "He's just going to go hambone from the beginning to the end again, and you know it's coming. You can pray for something different but you'll keep on praying because it's not going to change."
i still believe that a thoroughly healthy jonas is at least a match for pogačar. i think some of tadej’s new aura of crushing invincibility comes from a year when everything lined up for him just right. to be clear, i’m NOT saying he’s not the most gifted rider on the planet! he IS! but… liége is made for him; there was NOBODY at the giro to challenge; jonas, for all his spirit, was broken and a shell of his true self at the tour. the Worlds course was a perfect fit for this year for pog, where slimmed down but still MUCH bigger van der poel still kept the gap under a minute in a course that REALLY didn’t suit HIM. my point is that i actually don’t think tadej suddenly launched himself to a level of ability far, far above where he’d been before. he’s a great rider that had an historically great year, but i don’t believe he’s become something NEW, and UNBEATABLE. if he’s fully healthy, i really expect jonas to be as much of a handful for pog as pog is for him.
You're spewing nonsense. MVDP was at Liege too. Jonas did his best ever numbers in the Tour, as did Evenepoel. In the worlds, MVDP wasn't the only one chasing and a large part of the route was flat. Oh, did you forget that Pogi soloed 80 ks? What about the 80ks at Strade Bianche? The training ride at the Lombardia? And man, I can't stand how dismissive you people are of his Giro dominance. "There wasn't anyone around to challenge him" yeah well whenever a cyclist wins it's because there was no one else around who would be good enough. I'm sick of this imaginary opponents argument. Who was supposed to be there to challenge him anyways? Do you think Roglic or Evenepoel could do anything? Or Vingegaard, who always trains to peak for the Tour?
wow, you’re like a REALLY angry little fella, aren’t you? these discussions are supposed to be FUN, brother. if you find them this upsetting you should MAYYYYBE go for a walk, or get some tropical fish to look at or something. beyond my concern for your emotional well being, i gotta say i don’t understand a few things you tried to say. your point about van der poel at liege? i don’t get it. and exactly who are the “you people” who are persecuting you over pogacar’s walk-over at the giro. anyway, good luck with everything.
Typical "you didn't agree with me, you must be upset" yapping. Tried to look smart by wasting half your comment on a diversionary half-baked ad hominem. Gotta do better next time buddy. Mvdp at Liege? You said that Pogi wasn't all that good because Mvdp kept thr gap at the worlds. Well, the same Mvdp got smoked in Liege with similar climbing profile. Oh, look at that! You made a half-baked straw man as well. Either that or you're illiterate for considering "dismisiveness" to be "persecution". Anyways, the you people part is for the little cretins who DISMISS his Giro dominance as rather unimpressive for thr lack of "competition". See how I didn't dodge any talking points? Not hard when you've actually got something to say.
Jonas will be strong next year, he came into the Tour so lightweight after his injuries in that crash. I feel like he'll be focused and ready to go. That said Tadej is going to be tough to beat but it can happen. Should be a great Tour.
everyone should TRY to remember that just a year ago it was pascal the couldn’t remotely hang with vingegaard at the tour. the explanation for that was that pog had injured his wrist and that had interfered with his preparation. compare what a damaged wrist would do to your prep vs. what happened to vingegaard. i think a 100% healthy pogacar vs. a 100% healthy vingegaard at the tour is just about even money. hopefully that’s what we’ll get.
sorry, siri decided pogacar should be named PASCAL. and i neglected to spell check my AI spell checker…
It's going to be a great fight! I hope JV gets there in shape, Pogi aswell! And, I hope the Giro wont be a goal, but the Vuelta instead. Let Wout do his Giro (or Jorgensen as GC he can still do the Tour after or the Vuelta) Then, JV and Pogi, will have a match in both the Tour and the Vuelta! (Given Pogi goes for the Tour-Vuelta this time)
Dumb and dumber...two of the worst cycling commentators to listen too ! Roll sounds like he's going through puberty half the time with his comments.
seriously, ESPECIALLY when paired with each other. when they put bob with phil, it’s like bob KNOWS he needs to tighten everything up because phil (god bless him) is losing his marbles. bob is actually pretty GOOD when he’s on phil duty. and when they took vande velde OUT of the booth with bob an put him on the back of a motorcycle, he was suddenly smart and edgy again. put those two guys TOGETHER though, and bob suddenly becomes the dumbest, sloppiest, most ill-informed pogacar and van aert fanboy on the planet, unleashing a constant stream of dim-witted, chuckling hyperbole, and christian is his enabling toady. yuk. after GCN folded i had to listen to wayyyy to much of their “dumb and dumber” show. they must be separated forever.
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