DISCUSSION | How can Team Visma | Lease a Bike beat Tadej Pogacar at the Tour de France?

The Tour de France is almost here. The most important race in the World Tour calendar approaches, and the question on everyone’s mind is clear: how can Team Visma | Lease a Bike beat Tadej Pogacar at the Tour de France?

After his dominant performance in last year’s edition, the Slovenian is the undisputed favourite to win it all. But Visma - Lease a Bike, the team that best has challenged him in recent years, won’t go down without a fight.

The Slovenian superstar is coming off a strong spring campaign, winning Dauphiné, Liège, la Flèche Wallone, Ronde van Vlaanderen, among other races. He arrives in France as the man to beat, or perhaps, the man no one can beat. His explosiveness in the climbs, his aggressive racing style, and his iconic time-trial performances make him the most complete rider in this generation.

But if there’s one team that has shown the capacity and the courage to challenge him, it’s Visma. This team has the depth and, most importantly, the experience to beat Pogacar and UAE. Visma’s lineup sends a strong message: they are here to win. The squad will have the climbing firepower and the strategic tools to make Pogacar suffer as much as possible in all terrains. But what exactly do they need? Chaos? Patience? Or simply perfect execution?

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We have asked some of our writers to share their main thoughts and takeaways on this topic.

How can Visma beat Pogacar? Simple answer: they won't. Even if they have allied teams: they won't. The UAE has a very strong bloc to protect Pogacar and there will only be two types of terrain, high mountain or time trial. But if we take into account that in the Critérium du Dauphiné, Tadej Pogacar bluffed in the time trial, which was the only terrain where his rival proved superior, then that leaves the high mountains.

How can Visma combat the UAE's depth in the high mountains, where João Almeida, in addition to Pogacar, will be a tough nut to crack. If Vingegaard improved his explosiveness in the last altitude training camp after the Dauphiné and is able to match Pogacar, then we'll have a two-man race. Before the mountains, we'll have some tense moments in the race, but I don't see Visma taking advantage in those stages.

Even if it were to happen hypothetically, they would be residual seconds, they would never decide the race. I think Visma can reduce the gap to Pogacar, but not beat him. At least in 2025, I believe 99.9% that they won't be able to.

This is ultimately the most important question when it comes to the decision of the overall classification. One important point is that if Pogacar simply avoids illnesses or crashes (well any unnecessary time loss) it will be very hard for anyone to beat him this year. His climbing level is insane in all kinds of climbs, he has the explosivity, he has the tactical knowhow, he can position himself even if there's no UAE around, he's got the sprinting, the time-trialing...

I believe that Pogacar winning this race or not comes down to himself, if he can stay upright, healthy and consistent. Last year showed that even with their tactics and strong team, Visma simply could not damage him in any scenario. Visma are coming in incredibly strong to the Tour once again, and so I think they will try to inflict damage once again, but Vingegaard can only do his race and hope Pogacar has one or two bad days.

But Visma can do a few things. Firstly they have plenty stages in the high mountains that are brutal. They have the team to have push pace in those days with huge KJ expenditure, really fatigue everyone beyond the limits before attacking, which is where Vingegaard does best. On at least a day or two they must try this, until last year it's where Pogacar struggled against the Dane.

Secondly they have riders like Wout van Aert, Sepp Kuss, Tiesj Benoot (not including a Yates and Jorgenson) who should be able to jump into breakaways the entire second half of the race. Constantly put men in the breakaway and then attack, take risks. If Pogacar does crack once, they may be able to take advantage of it fully.

Thirdly its using Jorgenson and Yates (maybe even Kuss if he's back to his 2023 level) to attack stages 10 and 12 very hard right from the start. Before stage 13, I would say there's at least a small chance that Jorgenson and Yates can put pressure on Pogacar and UAE if they haven't lost time until then.

They are incredibly strong riders, podium contenders in their own right. If they start to lose 2/3/4/etc minutes Pogacar and UAE will not need to care much about them. But if they can get in some chaotic breakaways, specially stage 10, and ally with other teams to try and gain minutes, then it could be a potential weapon. Having to be on the defensive could also help if the pressure is on UAE's shoulders to be on the attack.

Pogacar may be the most complete rider of this generation, but no one is unbeatable. If Visma–Lease a Bike want to reclaim Tour de France glory, they’ll need to be smarter, deeper, and more adaptable than they were last year. Outthinking Pogacar might be the only way to outpace him.

Winning the Tour de France is not just about beating Pogacar, it is about outmaneuvering him and his team. If Vingegaard wants to win the race, he has to be stronger in the mountains, but we know this is almost an impossible task when you are facing the Slovenian superstar. This is where the domestiques will play an important role: you may not be able to beat Pogacar, but Matteo Jorgenson can beat Joao Almeida, Sepp Kuss can beat Adam Yates, and Van Aert can beat Pavel Sivakov.

UAE’s team is really strong, don’t get me wrong, but I still think Visma has a bigger pool of talent. The outcome of the race will depend on whether Visma are able to play their cards in a strategic way. Matteo Jorgenson has proven to be a superstar as well. His back-to-back Paris-Nice wins are proof of this, so why not unleash him and let him play a co-leader role if needed?

Imagine this: Jorgenson manages to slip into a breakaway in a tricky stage and obtains a gap at the beginning of the race over the main GC favourites. It’s a similar scenario to the UAE’s Giro d’Italia strategy, where Isaac del Toro gained time early, while Juan Ayuso remained as the “true leader” behind.

Now picture Pogacar on the receiving end of that tactic. The Slovenian would face a difficult situation, where he would have not one but two Visma men to defeat. Of course, that might not be enough to beat him (and UAE could also use the same tactic with a rider like Almeida), but it would definitely boost Jonas’ chances to conquer the yellow jersey.

Speaking about the Giro, one of the lessons that we learnt was that a race can be won not necessarily in the mountains, but also during tricky days. We all remember how chaotic the sterrato stage was. Ayuso and Roglic hitting the deck, Del Toro surviving the crashes…

In my opinion, Vingegaard should not just wait for the mountains. He has to win the Tour in the chaos. Crosswinds and echelons, descents, technical finales… Some stages might become true ambushes, and the Danish has to look for these stages to make the difference.

Last year’s Tour de France should also be a lesson to learn for Visma. Pogacar is strong, but if you fight him where he is the strongest, you will be less likely to succeed. Pogacar’s devastating accelerations are one of his strengths. He thrives in mano-a-mano battles and doesn’t suffer when responding to isolated attacks. Going head-to-head on raw watts would probably be a bad idea. That’s why I think the domestiques’ role will be more important than ever during the Tour.