"We already know who will win the Tour" - Bruyneel delivers Tour de France verdict as Tadej Pogacar dominates yellow jersey fight
Cycling
Stage 10 of the Tour de France 2026 delivered one of the race’s defining images: Tadej Pogačar attacking in the Massif Central to win solo and extend his lead over Jonas Vingegaard.
On the The Move podcast, Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel agreed the Slovenian seized a perfect opening to land both a psychological and sporting blow on his main rival.
Martin stressed the scale of the gap earned by the UAE Emirates leader. He noted that Pogačar not only won the stage, but “took almost a minute on his main GC rival,” a margin he deems huge in a modern Tour. He added that medium-mountain days often create wider splits than many big Alpine stages.
Bruyneel went further, framing the triumph as a kind of settling of scores. The Belgian recalled that Vingegaard had beaten Pogačar on a very similar finish two years earlier and argued the Slovenian seems especially driven to return to places where he was beaten. “Every time he’s been defeated in a specific spot, he’s come back to win,” the former sports director summed up.
The decisive moment came on the penultimate climb, when Pogačar launched an explosive attack and caught Richard Carapaz, who was up the road. Martin underlined how quickly the Slovenian reeled in the Ecuadorian, while Bruyneel said the difference in pace between them was “absolutely striking.”
For the former US Postal director, the key was not just the initial move but Pogačar’s ability to keep building the gap to the line. While the chase group worked with organised turns, the race leader continued to pull away and ultimately put more than half a minute into riders sharing the effort.
Vingegaard a concern
The Dane’s performance dominated much of the show’s debate. Bruyneel acknowledged that short, punchy climbs are not Vingegaard’s ideal terrain, but felt that alone didn’t explain a 54-second loss on GC. “I don’t think you can call that a small deficit,” he said.
The Belgian also linked the Visma leader’s display to accumulated fatigue in recent months. Vingegaard has strung together the Giro, the Vuelta and now the Tour without a true break between Grand Tours, something that, according to Bruyneel, may be taking a toll physically and mentally.
Martin agreed that Visma’s overall condition is a question mark. He pointed out that several key riders showed signs of fatigue and that, on a day when UAE lost support earlier than expected, Visma still failed to impose collective strength to isolate Pogačar.
Vingegaard raises concerns over his form
Is the Tour already decided
The big question on the episode was whether the race is effectively decided. Bruyneel answered cautiously, noting there are still eleven stages left and that surprises can happen. However, he admitted that “everything suggests we already know who will win the Tour, unless something truly unexpected happens.”
Martin added that the race interest could shift to the fight for second. With Vingegaard showing weakness and riders like Paul Seixas, Florian Lipowitz and Juan Ayuso growing more solid, the battle to join Pogačar on the podium has opened up unexpectedly.
Among the day’s standouts, both analysts highlighted Paul Seixas. The young Frenchman finished third and showed maturity beyond his years in a demanding stage after the rest day. Bruyneel said he “passed a major test” and that his ride confirms the huge engine and talent he had already displayed.
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Martin shared that view and noted Seixas’s rise contrasts with the dip from Isaac Del Toro, another youngster tipped for prominence. For the American, it was normal to see a debutant suffer after the rest day, which is precisely why he values the Frenchman’s performance so highly.
The episode’s conclusion was clear: stage 10 was not just another stage win for Pogačar. According to Martin and Bruyneel, the Slovenian sent a message to the peloton by showing he can attack on any terrain and keep extending his lead even when rivals appear to be collaborating at full tilt.
With 24 Tour de France stage wins already and an ever-wider GC cushion, Pogacar heads into the coming flat days with room to manage his efforts. And, as Bruyneel summed up during the analysis, “UAE are executing their own plan and seem a step ahead of the rest.”
Gavin QuinnCycling Journalist
Gavin Quinn is a cycling journalist and ultra-distance cyclist with a BA in Journalism from Dublin City University. Formerly the Press & Communications Officer for Cycling Ireland, Gavin has worked inside the national team at the World Championships and has reported for the Irish Mirror, Mirror UK, and The42.
His expertise is backed by elite-level access, having interviewed stars like Sam Bennett and Ben Healy, as well as immense personal endurance. In 2025, he completed a 12,000km solo cycle from Ireland to Vietnam, following a 4,600km tour across Europe. From the cobbles of Paris-Roubaix to the gradients of the Tourmalet, Gavin’s writing focuses on the "romance and brutality" of the sport. Having visited 50+ countries, he brings a global, cultural perspective to his coverage of the pro peloton for CyclingUpToDate.
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- It's going to happen at some point. It will happen to Tadej as well, we all get older. Jonas was in pretty great form at the tour. I still consider him a top two or three cyclist in the world, until he's not.awp15-11-2026
- mij, I am not so sure of that. I have been on a spine ward at a Denver hospital that had quite a few spinal injuries from mountain biking.BDBigGuy15-11-2026
- Pogi takes care of his teammates in races and training. Tadej Pogačar is widely praised within the cycling peloton for his fair and egalitarian leadership, actively supporting his UAE teammates both on the road during races and behind the scenes at training camps. Rather than acting like an untouchable superstar, he has intense team loyalty by sharing daily chores, giving up personal glory to help domestiques, and publicly praising their sacrifices. Unlike some Grand Tour contenders, like Vingegaard, who occasionally train away from their squads, Pogi consistently attends team training camps alongside his domestiques, making the exact same sacrifices to build friendship. I love how Pogačar shares his teammates-domestiques, either when they succeed or win in races or when they simply just do a good job for him. It has to be a great moral boost for them. And then they work even harder and go even deeper for Pogi. This is teamwork.PogiSloFans15-11-2026
- Yeah, what he said!Lozza15-11-2026
- I’m sure Jasper Philipsen would disagree with you.Lozza15-11-2026
- Article says he was “out for a spin around the town”, implying not off-road.Lozza15-11-2026
- let’s be honest, Alpecin is all about one rider - MVDP. I’m sure he gets whatever he needs, the rest get the scraps.mij15-11-2026
- there are more vicious injuries on a road bike than a mountain bike far and away.mij15-11-2026
- That'll be one crazy rider
Rafionain-Glas15-11-2026 - Many Europeans say that Austria, Switzerland and Slovenia are one of the most beautiful countries in Europe known for their stunning landscapes because of the Alp mountains, green forests, clean rivers and lakes and national parks.PogiSloFans15-11-2026
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