"We already know who will win the Tour" - Bruyneel delivers Tour de France verdict as Tadej Pogacar dominates yellow jersey fight
CyclingWednesday, 15 July 2026 at 11:15
Stage 10 of the Tour de France 2026 delivered one of the race’s defining images: Tadej Pogačar attacking in the Massif Central to win solo and extend his lead over Jonas Vingegaard.
On the The Move podcast, Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel agreed the Slovenian seized a perfect opening to land both a psychological and sporting blow on his main rival.
Martin stressed the scale of the gap earned by the UAE Emirates leader. He noted that Pogačar not only won the stage, but “took almost a minute on his main GC rival,” a margin he deems huge in a modern Tour. He added that medium-mountain days often create wider splits than many big Alpine stages.
Bruyneel went further, framing the triumph as a kind of settling of scores. The Belgian recalled that Vingegaard had beaten Pogačar on a very similar finish two years earlier and argued the Slovenian seems especially driven to return to places where he was beaten. “Every time he’s been defeated in a specific spot, he’s come back to win,” the former sports director summed up.
The decisive moment came on the penultimate climb, when Pogačar launched an explosive attack and caught Richard Carapaz, who was up the road. Martin underlined how quickly the Slovenian reeled in the Ecuadorian, while Bruyneel said the difference in pace between them was “absolutely striking.”
For the former US Postal director, the key was not just the initial move but Pogačar’s ability to keep building the gap to the line. While the chase group worked with organised turns, the race leader continued to pull away and ultimately put more than half a minute into riders sharing the effort.
Vingegaard a concern
The Dane’s performance dominated much of the show’s debate. Bruyneel acknowledged that short, punchy climbs are not Vingegaard’s ideal terrain, but felt that alone didn’t explain a 54-second loss on GC. “I don’t think you can call that a small deficit,” he said.
The Belgian also linked the Visma leader’s display to accumulated fatigue in recent months. Vingegaard has strung together the Giro, the Vuelta and now the Tour without a true break between Grand Tours, something that, according to Bruyneel, may be taking a toll physically and mentally.
Martin agreed that Visma’s overall condition is a question mark. He pointed out that several key riders showed signs of fatigue and that, on a day when UAE lost support earlier than expected, Visma still failed to impose collective strength to isolate Pogačar.
Vingegaard raises concerns over his form
Is the Tour already decided
The big question on the episode was whether the race is effectively decided. Bruyneel answered cautiously, noting there are still eleven stages left and that surprises can happen. However, he admitted that “everything suggests we already know who will win the Tour, unless something truly unexpected happens.”
Martin added that the race interest could shift to the fight for second. With Vingegaard showing weakness and riders like Paul Seixas, Florian Lipowitz and Juan Ayuso growing more solid, the battle to join Pogačar on the podium has opened up unexpectedly.
Among the day’s standouts, both analysts highlighted Paul Seixas. The young Frenchman finished third and showed maturity beyond his years in a demanding stage after the rest day. Bruyneel said he “passed a major test” and that his ride confirms the huge engine and talent he had already displayed.
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Martin shared that view and noted Seixas’s rise contrasts with the dip from Isaac Del Toro, another youngster tipped for prominence. For the American, it was normal to see a debutant suffer after the rest day, which is precisely why he values the Frenchman’s performance so highly.
The episode’s conclusion was clear: stage 10 was not just another stage win for Pogačar. According to Martin and Bruyneel, the Slovenian sent a message to the peloton by showing he can attack on any terrain and keep extending his lead even when rivals appear to be collaborating at full tilt.
With 24 Tour de France stage wins already and an ever-wider GC cushion, Pogacar heads into the coming flat days with room to manage his efforts. And, as Bruyneel summed up during the analysis, “UAE are executing their own plan and seem a step ahead of the rest.”
Gavin QuinnCycling Journalist
Gavin Quinn is a cycling journalist and ultra-distance cyclist with a BA in Journalism from Dublin City University. Formerly the Press & Communications Officer for Cycling Ireland, Gavin has worked inside the national team at the World Championships and has reported for the Irish Mirror, Mirror UK, and The42.
His expertise is backed by elite-level access, having interviewed stars like Sam Bennett and Ben Healy, as well as immense personal endurance. In 2025, he completed a 12,000km solo cycle from Ireland to Vietnam, following a 4,600km tour across Europe. From the cobbles of Paris-Roubaix to the gradients of the Tourmalet, Gavin’s writing focuses on the "romance and brutality" of the sport. Having visited 50+ countries, he brings a global, cultural perspective to his coverage of the pro peloton for CyclingUpToDate.
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- No one is asking vou anything!!!mus-musculuspeedypogigonzales15-07-2026
- The writer saying there's no clear evidence is like saying there is evidence but it's not clear. A very underhanded way of accusing him of doping. Shameful...Santiago15-07-2026
- Hard to make sense of this kind of behavior from fans. Imagine Usain Bolt getting boos instead of applause after another record-breaking run, or Roger Federer winning Wimbledon for the nth time, or Messi winning the Bol'D Or n consecutive times, and fans greeting their achievements with boos instead of cheers. Is this the Lance Armstrong Effect, or the Paul Seixas Effect? When Steffi Graf was dominating women's tennis, then Monica Seles came along and broke her dominance, a crazed German fan jumped the barriers and stabbed her in the back, effectively ending her outstanding career. These athletes are outstanding specimens of mankind, they perform heroic deeds for our viewing delight. But stupidity lurks everywhere, and sports rely on spectators for patronage, so you learn to take the good with the bad. Such a shame.FredMan15-07-2026
- Fair call. It can't be fun getting labelled the Biggest Runner-Up Washed Loser because you're up against a freak of nature every July, when you've won every Grand Tour and the biggest one twice, and probably plan to do all the one week races and apart from one Slovenian you generally destroy the field in GC/stage races.wrsty15-07-2026
- Yeah but, Lipopoel, Del Poggo, Skelayuso? Would be so much more interesting if the actors were redistributed and had to show their worth instead of dezling with family feuds (and trust me, no matter how cosy, when it comes to inheritance, it won’t be). It’s almost as if the powers that be want it this way for spectacle and headlineability.Mistermaumau15-07-2026
- Jorgensen is often meant to be a satellite rider for Jonas, so a dangerous rider to let up the road. Seems to be some bad blood there too, though.Hills3315-07-2026
- Mmm I think he has a grudge against Jorgensen . I have noticed he was never allowed up road what do ever even though he was so far down on GC. Pog is paid to win by his team and unless i am missing the body language they are always laughing and talking. Maybe Pog is the silent assassin lolpaultryan200215-07-2026
- From what he said after Stage 10, Gianetti was mad at him when he couldn't beat Jonas last time on this parcours, so he had to win now. He started looking over his shoulder while still racing down that tricky descent, and kept doing it right to the end, when he had nothing left in his legs. Meantime, Del Toro cracked, and McNulty faded completely. Again, I'm getting this strange feeling that people are watching different races.Hills3315-07-2026
- Isn't it more interesting to watch perfection in action...Pogi-Baby Hulk for the wins... or Baudin's victory against Gaudu and Romo? I just hate those who pray to be given victories. I would kick them out of the sport. And by the way... can someone remind me who said before the Tour: "Only now, after 2 years, does it feel like the old Jonas is back, I'm even stronger now than in 2023. I think I can beat Pogačar again, I've never felt better on a bike, I'm powerful."mus-musculuspeedypogigonzales15-07-2026
- As much as his physiology seems to be unique, at this point if this guy/team get's outed for doing the bad thing - you may as well knock pro-cycling on the head cuz it'll never come back from another scandal of this (hypothetical) magnitude. But it's lucky that big teams are backed by honest transparent organizations like the UAE, otherwise it'd all seem a bit too good to be true.wrsty15-07-2026
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